Netflix Inc Valuation – March 2019 #NFLX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Netflix, Inc., incorporated on August 29, 1997, is a provider an Internet television network. The Company operates through three segments: Domestic streaming, International streaming and Domestic DVD. The Domestic streaming segment includes services that streams content to its members in the United States. The International streaming segment includes services that streams content to its members outside the United States. The Domestic DVD segment includes services, such as digital optical disc (DVD)-by-mail.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NFLX – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $156,739,041,000 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.49 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 616.45% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 159.11 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 30.93 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.49 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.23 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.26
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $86.91
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $32.73
MG Value based on 0% Growth $19.19
Market Implied Growth Rate 75.31%
Current Price $359.17
% of Intrinsic Value 413.28%

Netflix, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.36 in 2015 to an estimated $2.26 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 75.31% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Netflix, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.39. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 159.11, which was above the industry average of 35.38. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.48.

Netflix, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.48
Graham Number $31.39
PEmg 159.11
Current Ratio 1.49
PB Ratio 30.93
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $9,694,135,000
Total Current Liabilities $6,487,320,000
Long-Term Debt $10,360,058,000
Total Assets $25,974,400,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $20,735,635,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 451,127,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.65
Dec2018 $2.68
Dec2017 $1.25
Dec2016 $0.43
Dec2015 $0.28
Dec2014 $0.62
Dec2013 $0.26
Dec2012 $0.04
Dec2011 $0.59
Dec2010 $0.42
Dec2009 $0.28
Dec2008 $0.19
Dec2007 $0.14
Dec2006 $0.10
Dec2005 $0.09
Dec2004 $0.05
Dec2003 $0.01
Dec2002 -$0.05
Dec2001 -$0.77
Dec2000 -$1.47

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.26
Dec2018 $1.39
Dec2017 $0.69
Dec2016 $0.38
Dec2015 $0.36
Dec2014 $0.39
Dec2013 $0.29
Dec2012 $0.31
Dec2011 $0.40
Dec2010 $0.28
Dec2009 $0.19
Dec2008 $0.14
Dec2007 $0.10
Dec2006 $0.06
Dec2005 -$0.01
Dec2004 -$0.19
Dec2003 -$0.36

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Netflix Inc Valuation – June 2018 $NFLX
Netflix Inc Valuation – February 2017 $NFLX
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – November 2015
Netflix Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $NFLX
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – November 2014

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Walt Disney Co Valuation – November 2018 $DIS
Tegna Inc Valuation – August 2018 $TGNA
E.W. Scripps Co Valuation – August 2018 $SSP
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Corus Entertainment Inc Valuation – July 2018 $TSE:CJR.B

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2019 $FLR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Fluor Corporation (Fluor), incorporated on September 11, 2000, is a holding company. The Company operates its business in four segments: Energy, Chemicals & Mining; Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Government, and Maintenance, Modification & Asset Integrity (MMAI). The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers professional services providing engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, commissioning and maintenance, as well as project management services on a global basis. The Company is an integrated solutions provider for various industries, including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and advanced manufacturing. The Company is also a service provider to the United States federal Government and governments abroad, and it performs operations and maintenance activities around the world for its industrial clients. The Company offers services in various categories, including engineering and design, procurement, construction, fabrication, maintenance, modification and asset integrity and project management. The Company offers these services both independently, as well as through its integrated solutions offerings. Its services range from basic consulting activities, at the early stages of a project, to complete design-build and maintenance contracts.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FLR – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,303,183,707 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.52 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -43.59% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.36 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.67 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.52 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.87 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.95
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.24
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.43%
Current Price $37.70
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Fluor Corporation (NEW) is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.28 in 2014 to an estimated $1.95 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.43% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Fluor Corporation (NEW) revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.02. The company pays a dividend of $0.84 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.36, which was below the industry average of 20.47, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.57.

Fluor Corporation (NEW) receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.57
Graham Number $31.02
PEmg 19.36
Current Ratio 1.52
PB Ratio 1.67
Current Dividend $0.84
Dividend Yield 2.23%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $5,584,161,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,662,103,000
Long-Term Debt $1,667,359,000
Total Assets $9,147,976,000
Intangible Assets $553,294,000
Total Liabilities $5,948,047,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 141,549,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.79
Dec2017 $1.36
Dec2016 $2.00
Dec2015 $2.81
Dec2014 $3.20
Dec2013 $4.06
Dec2012 $2.71
Dec2011 $3.40
Dec2010 $1.98
Dec2009 $3.75
Dec2008 $3.93
Dec2007 $2.93
Dec2006 $1.48
Dec2005 $1.31
Dec2004 $1.13
Dec2003 $0.98
Dec2002 $1.03
Dec2001 $0.13
Oct2000 $0.81
Oct1999 $0.69
Oct1998 $1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.95
Dec2017 $2.25
Dec2016 $2.78
Dec2015 $3.19
Dec2014 $3.28
Dec2013 $3.27
Dec2012 $2.97
Dec2011 $3.13
Dec2010 $2.94
Dec2009 $3.17
Dec2008 $2.64
Dec2007 $1.85
Dec2006 $1.26
Dec2005 $1.08
Dec2004 $0.91
Dec2003 $0.78
Dec2002 $0.73

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Fluor Corporation Valuation – April 2018 $FLR
Fluor Corporation Valuation – December 2016 $FLR
Fluor Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $FLR
26 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/6/16
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2016 Update $FLR

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Flowserve Corp Valuation – January 2019 $FLS
Home Depot Inc Valuation – November 2018 $HD
Cavco Industries Inc Valuation – September 2018 $CVCO
LGI Homes Inc Valuation – September 2018 $LGIH
Stantec Inc Valuation – August 2018 $TSE-STN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

FLIR Systems Inc Valuation – February 2019 $FLIR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): FLIR Systems, Inc. (FLIR), incorporated on March 8, 1978, designs, develops, markets and distributes thermal imaging systems, visible-light imaging systems, locater systems, measurement and diagnostic systems and threat-detection solutions. The Company’s segments include Surveillance, Instruments, Security, OEM & Emerging Markets, Maritime and Detection. Its Surveillance segment provides enhanced imaging and recognition solutions under its commercially developed, military qualified (CDMQ) model to a range of military, law enforcement, public safety and other government customers. Its Instruments segment provides devices that image, measure and assess thermal energy, gases and other environmental elements for industrial, commercial, and scientific applications under the FLIR and Extech brands. Its Security segment develops and manufactures a range of cameras and video recording systems for use in commercial, critical infrastructure, and home monitoring applications. Its OEM & Emerging Markets segment provides thermal imaging camera cores and components that are utilized by third parties to create thermal and other types of imaging systems. Its Maritime segment develops and manufactures electronics and imaging instruments for the recreational and commercial maritime market under the FLIR and Raymarine brands. The Detection segment offers sensors, instruments and integrated platform solutions for the detection, identification, and suppression of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and explosives (CBRNE) threats.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FLIR – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,250,818,658 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 4.09 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 16.70% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.16 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.87 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 4.09 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.43 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.74
MG Growth Estimate 2.69%
MG Value $24.14
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.20
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.77
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.83%
Current Price $52.41
% of Intrinsic Value 217.11%

FLIR Systems, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.47 in 2015 to an estimated $1.74 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into FLIR Systems, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.64 per share, for a yield of 1.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 30.16, which was above the industry average of 29.46. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $2.8.

FLIR Systems, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.80
Graham Number $26.61
PEmg 30.16
Current Ratio 4.09
PB Ratio 3.87
Current Dividend $0.64
Dividend Yield 1.22%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,292,647,000
Total Current Liabilities $316,014,000
Long-Term Debt $421,948,000
Total Assets $2,781,242,000
Intangible Assets $1,051,416,000
Total Liabilities $904,456,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 138,509,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.32
Dec2018 $2.01
Dec2017 $0.77
Dec2016 $1.20
Dec2015 $1.72
Dec2014 $1.39
Dec2013 $1.22
Dec2012 $1.45
Dec2011 $1.38
Dec2010 $1.54
Dec2009 $1.45
Dec2008 $1.28
Dec2007 $0.89
Dec2006 $0.66
Dec2005 $0.58
Dec2004 $0.46
Dec2003 $0.29
Dec2002 $0.29
Dec2001 $0.20
Dec2000 -$0.23
Dec1999 -$0.48

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.74
Dec2018 $1.44
Dec2017 $1.19
Dec2016 $1.40
Dec2015 $1.47
Dec2014 $1.37
Dec2013 $1.37
Dec2012 $1.44
Dec2011 $1.39
Dec2010 $1.32
Dec2009 $1.13
Dec2008 $0.90
Dec2007 $0.67
Dec2006 $0.52
Dec2005 $0.43
Dec2004 $0.30
Dec2003 $0.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

FLIR Systems Inc Valuation – April 2018 $FLIR
FLIR Systems Inc Valuation – November 2016 $FLIR
FLIR Systems Inc Valuation – May 2016 $FLIR
FLIR Systems Inc. Valuation – November 2015 Update $FLIR
FLIR Systems Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $FLIR

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc Valuation – January 2019 $IFF

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): International Flavors & Fragrances Inc., incorporated on December 6, 1909, creates, manufactures and supplies flavors and fragrances (including cosmetic active ingredients) used to impart or improve flavor or fragrance in a range of consumer products. The Company operates in two segments: Flavors and Fragrances. The Flavors segment offers flavor compounds that are sold to the food and beverage industries for use in consumer products, such as prepared foods, beverages, dairy, food and sweet products. The Fragrances segment offers fragrance compounds and fragrance ingredients. Its cosmetic active ingredients consist of active and functional ingredients, botanicals and delivery systems to support its customers’ cosmetic and personal care product lines. The Company’s products are sold to manufacturers of perfumes and cosmetics, hair and other personal care products, soaps and detergents, cleaning products, dairy, meat and other processed foods, beverages, snacks and savory foods, sweet and baked goods, and pharmaceutical and oral care products. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had 42 manufacturing facilities and over 70 creative centers and application laboratories located in over 35 countries that support over 35,000 products. Its manufacturing facilities are located in the United States, the Netherlands, Spain, Great Britain, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, China, India and Singapore.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of IFF – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $14,388,233,724 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 9.16 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 56.57% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.17 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.73 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 9.16 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.70 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.79
MG Growth Estimate 2.52%
MG Value $64.90
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $69.46
MG Value based on 0% Growth $40.72
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.83%
Current Price $134.95
% of Intrinsic Value 207.92%

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.1 in 2014 to an estimated $4.79 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.83% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into International Flavors & Fragrances Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $50.39. The company pays a dividend of $2.66 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 28.17, which was below the industry average of 45.62, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $16.77.

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $16.77
Graham Number $50.39
PEmg 28.17
Current Ratio 9.16
PB Ratio 2.73
Current Dividend $2.66
Dividend Yield 1.97%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 15

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,946,827,000
Total Current Liabilities $758,456,000
Long-Term Debt $4,331,242,000
Total Assets $9,615,542,000
Intangible Assets $1,538,439,000
Total Liabilities $5,577,593,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 81,647,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.29
Dec2017 $3.72
Dec2016 $5.05
Dec2015 $5.16
Dec2014 $5.06
Dec2013 $4.29
Dec2012 $3.09
Dec2011 $3.26
Dec2010 $3.26
Dec2009 $2.46
Dec2008 $2.86
Dec2007 $2.82
Dec2006 $2.48
Dec2005 $2.04
Dec2004 $2.05
Dec2003 $1.83
Dec2002 $1.84
Dec2001 $1.20
Dec2000 $1.22
Dec1999 $1.53
Dec1998 $1.90

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.79
Dec2017 $4.58
Dec2016 $4.85
Dec2015 $4.56
Dec2014 $4.10
Dec2013 $3.50
Dec2012 $3.07
Dec2011 $3.02
Dec2010 $2.86
Dec2009 $2.61
Dec2008 $2.61
Dec2007 $2.40
Dec2006 $2.15
Dec2005 $1.92
Dec2004 $1.78
Dec2003 $1.61
Dec2002 $1.51

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Other ModernGraham posts about the company

International Flavors & Fragrances Inc Valuation – March 2018 $IFF
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International Flavors & Fragrances Inc Valuation – June 2016 $IFF
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 12/12/15
International Flavors & Fragrances Valuation – December 2015 Update $IFF

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Avon Products Inc Valuation – June 2018 $AVP
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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Foot Locker Inc Valuation – January 2019 $FL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Foot Locker, Inc., incorporated on April 7, 1989, is a retailer of shoes and apparel. The Company operates through two segments: Athletic Stores and Direct-to-Customers. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 3,363 primarily mall-based stores, as well as stores in high-traffic urban retail areas and high streets, in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated franchised stores in Germany under the Runners Point banner. A total of 74 franchised stores were operating as of January 28, 2017, of which 54 were operating in the Middle East, 15 in Germany, and five in the Republic of Korea.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FL – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,378,285,000 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 3.42 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 269.09% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.69 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.65 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 3.42 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.07 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.85
MG Growth Estimate 5.80%
MG Value $77.32
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $55.78
MG Value based on 0% Growth $32.70
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.09%
Current Price $56.50
% of Intrinsic Value 73.07%

Foot Locker, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position. . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.77 in 2015 to an estimated $3.85 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Foot Locker, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $46.49. The company pays a dividend of $1.24 per share, for a yield of 2.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.69, which was below the industry average of 32.21, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $9.99.

Foot Locker, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $9.99
Graham Number $46.49
PEmg 14.69
Current Ratio 3.42
PB Ratio 2.65
Current Dividend $1.24
Dividend Yield 2.19%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

Useful Links

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 10/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,378,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $695,000,000
Long-Term Debt $124,000,000
Total Assets $3,680,000,000
Intangible Assets $196,000,000
Total Liabilities $1,229,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 115,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.57
Jan2018 $2.22
Jan2017 $4.91
Jan2016 $3.84
Jan2015 $3.56
Jan2014 $2.85
Jan2013 $2.58
Jan2012 $1.80
Jan2011 $1.07
Jan2010 $0.30
Jan2009 -$0.52
Jan2008 $0.29
Jan2007 $1.60
Jan2006 $1.68
Jan2005 $1.88
Jan2004 $1.39
Jan2003 $1.05
Jan2002 $0.64
Jan2001 -$1.74
Jan2000 $0.43
Jan1999 -$1.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.85
Jan2018 $3.48
Jan2017 $3.92
Jan2016 $3.26
Jan2015 $2.77
Jan2014 $2.16
Jan2013 $1.56
Jan2012 $0.90
Jan2011 $0.48
Jan2010 $0.34
Jan2009 $0.57
Jan2008 $1.20
Jan2007 $1.61
Jan2006 $1.52
Jan2005 $1.18
Jan2004 $0.67
Jan2003 $0.16

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Defensive Investor – March 2018
Foot Locker Inc Valuation – March 2018 $FL
Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – August 2017
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2017

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Under Armour Inc Valuation – January 2019 $UA
Hanesbrands Inc Valuation – January 2019 $HBI
L Brands Inc Valuation – January 2019 $LB
Nike Inc Valuation – November 2018 $NKE
Deckers Outdoor Corp Valuation – May 2018 $DECK
Ralph Lauren Corp Valuation – May 2018 $RL
Abercrombie & Fitch Co Valuation – May 2018 $ANF
Steven Madden Ltd Valuation – May 2018 $SHOO
Stage Stores Inc Valuation – May 2018 $SSI
American Eagle Outfitters Inc Valuation – May 2018 $AEO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Aflac Inc Valuation – January 2019 $AFL

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Aflac Incorporated, incorporated on April 27, 1973, is a business holding company. The Company is involved in supplemental health and life insurance, which is marketed and administered through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus (Aflac). The Company’s insurance business consists of two segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. Aflac offers insurance policies in Japan and the United States that provide a layer of financial protection against income and asset loss. Aflac Japan sells voluntary supplemental insurance products, including cancer plans, general medical indemnity plans, medical/sickness riders, care plans, living benefit life plans, ordinary life insurance plans and annuities. Aflac U.S. sells supplemental insurance products, including products designed to protect individuals from depletion of assets, such as accident, cancer, critical illness/care, hospital intensive care, hospital indemnity, fixed-benefit dental, and vision care plans and loss-of-income products, such as life and short-term disability plans.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AFL – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass all 6 of the following tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $34,196,651,286 Pass
2. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
3. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
4. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 111.77% Pass
5. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 10.93 Pass
6. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.49 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass all 3 of the following tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
2. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
3. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.11
MG Growth Estimate 5.32%
MG Value $78.68
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade A+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $59.60
MG Value based on 0% Growth $34.94
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.21%
Current Price $44.92
% of Intrinsic Value 57.09%

AFLAC Incorporated qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.03 in 2014 to an estimated $4.11 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.21% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AFLAC Incorporated revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $53.04. The company pays a dividend of $0.87 per share, for a yield of 1.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 10.93, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

AFLAC Incorporated fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Graham Number $53.04
PEmg 10.93
PB Ratio 1.49
Dividend Yield 1.94%
TTM Dividend $0.87
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation $5,279,000,000
Total Assets $137,941,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $114,707,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 772,070,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.97
Dec2017 $5.77
Dec2016 $3.21
Dec2015 $2.93
Dec2014 $3.25
Dec2013 $3.38
Dec2012 $3.06
Dec2011 $2.06
Dec2010 $2.46
Dec2009 $1.60
Dec2008 $1.31
Dec2007 $1.66
Dec2006 $1.48
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.23
Dec2003 $0.74
Dec2002 $0.78
Dec2001 $0.64
Dec2000 $0.63
Dec1999 $0.52
Dec1998 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.11
Dec2017 $4.02
Dec2016 $3.15
Dec2015 $3.06
Dec2014 $3.03
Dec2013 $2.79
Dec2012 $2.36
Dec2011 $1.95
Dec2010 $1.83
Dec2009 $1.51
Dec2008 $1.45
Dec2007 $1.45
Dec2006 $1.28
Dec2005 $1.11
Dec2004 $0.89
Dec2003 $0.70
Dec2002 $0.65

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – August 2018
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – June 2018
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Defensive Investor – June 2018
Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – April 2018
Best Dividend Paying Stocks for Dividend Growth Investors – April 2018

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Progressive Corp Valuation – January 2019 $PGR
Lincoln National Corp Valuation – January 2019 $LNC
Cincinnati Financial Corp Valuation – January 2019 $CINF
Aon PLC Valuation – November 2018 $AON
Travelers Companies Inc Valuation – November 2018 $TRV
Stewart Information Services Corp Valuation – August 2018 $STC
Kemper Corp Valuation – August 2018 $KMPR
CNO Financial Group Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CNO
Sun Life Financial Inc Valuation – August 2018 $TSE-SLF
American Financial Group Inc Valuation – August 2018 $AFG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Fleetcor Technologies Inc Valuation – January 2019 $FLT

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): FleetCor Technologies, Inc., incorporated on February 3, 1998, is a provider of workforce payment products. The Company offers fuel card payments product solutions, corporate payments products, toll products, lodging cards and gift cards. The Company operates through two segments: North America and International. The Company’s products are sold to businesses, retailers, oil companies and marketers, and government entities. The Company’s payment programs enable its customers to manage and control their commercial payments, card programs and employee spending. The Company also provides a suite of fleet related and workforce payment products, including mobile telematics services, fleet maintenance management and employee benefit and transportation related payments. As of December 31, 2016, its products were used in 53 countries around the world, with its primary geographies in the United States, Brazil and the United Kingdom.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FLT – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $15,931,247,424 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.24 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -43.58% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 105.76 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 14.96 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.24 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.76
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.46
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.93
Market Implied Growth Rate 48.63%
Current Price $185.72
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

FleetCor Technologies, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.21 in 2014 to an estimated $1.76 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 48.63% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into FleetCor Technologies, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $29.9. The company pays a dividend of $0.76 per share, for a yield of 0.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 105.76, which was above the industry average of 25.74. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-4.95.

FleetCor Technologies, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$4.95
Graham Number $29.90
PEmg 105.76
Current Ratio 2.24
PB Ratio 14.96
Current Dividend $0.76
Dividend Yield 0.41%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 11

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,324,667,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,040,080,000
Long-Term Debt $1,436,746,000
Total Assets $4,605,064,000
Intangible Assets $1,399,632,000
Total Liabilities $2,974,337,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 131,350,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.13
Dec2017 $0.02
Dec2016 $1.01
Dec2015 $1.93
Dec2014 $3.72
Dec2013 $3.41
Dec2012 $2.84
Dec2011 $2.55
Dec2010 $2.29
Dec2009 $2.53
Dec2008 $2.58
Dec2007 $1.49
Dec2006 $0.67
Dec2005 $0.10
Dec2004 $0.16
Dec2003 $0.27
Dec2002 $0.16
Dec2001 -$0.14
Dec2000 $0.12
Dec1999 $0.11
Dec1998 $0.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.76
Dec2017 $1.39
Dec2016 $2.24
Dec2015 $2.87
Dec2014 $3.21
Dec2013 $2.88
Dec2012 $2.59
Dec2011 $2.41
Dec2010 $2.20
Dec2009 $1.93
Dec2008 $1.42
Dec2007 $0.73
Dec2006 $0.33
Dec2005 $0.14
Dec2004 $0.15
Dec2003 $0.13
Dec2002 $0.08

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

TrueBlue Inc Valuation – October 2018 $TBI
Convergys Corp Valuation – September 2018 $CVG
Strategic Education Inc Valuation – August 2018 $STRA
Multi-Color Corp Valuation – August 2018 $LABL
Korn/Ferry International Valuation – August 2018 $KFY
Kelly Services Inc Valuation – August 2018 $KELYA
Jack Henry & Associates Inc Valuation – August 2018 $JKHY
Dun & Bradstreet Corp Valuation – July 2018 $DNB
CoreLogic Inc Valuation – July 2018 $CLGX
Pitney Bowes Inc Valuation – June 2018 $PBI

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Flowserve Corp Valuation – January 2019 $FLS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Flowserve Corporation, incorporated on May 1, 1912, is a manufacturer and aftermarket service provider of flow control systems. The Company’s segments include Engineered Product Division (EPD), Industrial Product Division (IPD) and Flow Control Division (FCD). The Company’s geographic segment includes North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America. The Company develops and manufactures precision-engineered flow control equipment integral to the movement, control and protection of the flow of materials in its customer’s critical processes. The Company’s product portfolio of pumps, valves, seals, automation and aftermarket services supports infrastructure industries, including oil and gas, chemical, power generation (including nuclear, fossil and renewable) and water management, as well as certain general industrial markets where its products and services add value. The Company offers a range of aftermarket equipment services, such as installation, diagnostics, repair and retrofitting through manufacturing platform and network of Quick Response Centers (QRCs). The Company’s products include oil and gas, general industries, chemical, power generation and water management.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FLS – January 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $4,975,183,199 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.24 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -72.74% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 36.58 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.06 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.24 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.04
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $15.07
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.83
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.04%
Current Price $38.02
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Flowserve Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.21 in 2014 to an estimated $1.04 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.04% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Flowserve Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $16.73. The company pays a dividend of $0.76 per share, for a yield of 2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 36.58, which was above the industry average of 20.63. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-4.95.

Flowserve Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$4.95
Graham Number $16.73
PEmg 36.58
Current Ratio 2.24
PB Ratio 3.06
Current Dividend $0.76
Dividend Yield 2.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 11

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2018
Total Current Assets $2,324,667,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,040,080,000
Long-Term Debt $1,436,746,000
Total Assets $4,605,064,000
Intangible Assets $1,399,632,000
Total Liabilities $2,974,337,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 131,350,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.98
Dec2017 $0.02
Dec2016 $1.01
Dec2015 $1.93
Dec2014 $3.72
Dec2013 $3.41
Dec2012 $2.84
Dec2011 $2.55
Dec2010 $2.29
Dec2009 $2.53
Dec2008 $2.58
Dec2007 $1.49
Dec2006 $0.67
Dec2005 $0.10
Dec2004 $0.16
Dec2003 $0.27
Dec2002 $0.16
Dec2001 -$0.14
Dec2000 $0.12
Dec1999 $0.11
Dec1998 $0.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.04
Dec2017 $1.39
Dec2016 $2.24
Dec2015 $2.87
Dec2014 $3.21
Dec2013 $2.88
Dec2012 $2.59
Dec2011 $2.41
Dec2010 $2.20
Dec2009 $1.93
Dec2008 $1.42
Dec2007 $0.73
Dec2006 $0.33
Dec2005 $0.14
Dec2004 $0.15
Dec2003 $0.13
Dec2002 $0.08

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Flowserve Corp Valuation – February 2018 $FLS
Flowserve Corporation Valuation – May 2016 $FLS
11 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 11/21/15
Flowserve Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $FLS
The Best Companies of the Construction Industry – October 2015

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SNC-Lavalin Group Inc Valuation – August 2018 $TSE:SNC
Stella-Jones Inc Valuation – July 2018 $TSE-SJ
Aecon Group Inc Valuation – July 2018 $TSE:ARE

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Netflix Inc Valuation – June 2018 $NFLX

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Netflix, Inc., incorporated on August 29, 1997, is a provider an Internet television network. The Company operates through three segments: Domestic streaming, International streaming and Domestic DVD. The Domestic streaming segment includes services that streams content to its members in the United States. The International streaming segment includes services that streams content to its members outside the United States. The Domestic DVD segment includes services, such as digital optical disc (DVD)-by-mail.

NFLX Chart

NFLX data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of NFLX – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $156,458,896,776 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.30 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 186.15% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 305.54 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 40.32 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.30 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.61 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.18
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $45.35
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $17.08
MG Value based on 0% Growth $10.01
Market Implied Growth Rate 148.52%
Current Price $359.93
% of Intrinsic Value 793.62%

Netflix, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.39 in 2014 to an estimated $1.18 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 148.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Netflix, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $19.48. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 305.54, which was above the industry average of 35.5. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-18.46.

Netflix, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$18.46
Graham Number $19.48
PEmg 305.54
Current Ratio 1.30
PB Ratio 40.32
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $7,817,576,000
Total Current Liabilities $6,005,587,000
Long-Term Debt $6,542,373,000
Total Assets $20,152,797,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $16,132,067,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 450,359,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.04
Dec2017 $1.25
Dec2016 $0.43
Dec2015 $0.28
Dec2014 $0.62
Dec2013 $0.26
Dec2012 $0.04
Dec2011 $0.59
Dec2010 $0.42
Dec2009 $0.28
Dec2008 $0.19
Dec2007 $0.14
Dec2006 $0.10
Dec2005 $0.09
Dec2004 $0.05
Dec2003 $0.01
Dec2002 -$0.11
Dec2001 -$1.53
Dec2000 -$2.94

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.18
Dec2017 $0.69
Dec2016 $0.38
Dec2015 $0.36
Dec2014 $0.39
Dec2013 $0.29
Dec2012 $0.31
Dec2011 $0.40
Dec2010 $0.28
Dec2009 $0.19
Dec2008 $0.14
Dec2007 $0.10
Dec2006 $0.06
Dec2005 -$0.07
Dec2004 -$0.40
Dec2003 -$0.72
Dec2002 -$1.03

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Netflix Inc Valuation – February 2017 $NFLX
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – November 2015
Netflix Inc Valuation – November 2015 Update $NFLX
5 Speculative and Overvalued Companies to Avoid – November 2014
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/22/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

CBS Corporation Valuation – April 2018 $CBS
Discovery Inc Valuation – April 2018 $DISCA
Time Warner Inc Valuation – March 2018 $TWX
Viacom Inc Valuation – March 2018 $VIAB
Twenty-First Century Fox Inc Valuation – March 2018 $FOXA
Walt Disney Co Valuation – February 2018 $DIS
Live Nation Entertainment Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LYV
Walt Disney Co Valuation – March 2017 $DIS
Tegna Inc Valuation – February 2017 $TGNA
E.W. Scripps Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $SSP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Fluor Corporation Valuation – April 2018 $FLR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Fluor Corporation (Fluor), incorporated on September 11, 2000, is a holding company. The Company operates its business in four segments: Energy, Chemicals & Mining; Industrial, Infrastructure & Power; Government, and Maintenance, Modification & Asset Integrity (MMAI). The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers professional services providing engineering, procurement, construction, fabrication and modularization, commissioning and maintenance, as well as project management services on a global basis. The Company is an integrated solutions provider for various industries, including oil and gas, chemicals and petrochemicals, mining and metals, transportation, power, life sciences and advanced manufacturing. The Company is also a service provider to the United States federal Government and governments abroad, and it performs operations and maintenance activities around the world for its industrial clients. The Company offers services in various categories, including engineering and design, procurement, construction, fabrication, maintenance, modification and asset integrity and project management. The Company offers these services both independently, as well as through its integrated solutions offerings. Its services range from basic consulting activities, at the early stages of a project, to complete design-build and maintenance contracts.

FLR Chart

FLR data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FLR – April 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $8,588,816,906 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.57 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -28.15% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.67 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.52 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.57 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.79 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.42
MG Growth Estimate -3.93%
MG Value $1.53
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $35.05
MG Value based on 0% Growth $20.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.09%
Current Price $59.64
% of Intrinsic Value 3902.24%

Fluor Corporation (NEW) is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $3.28 in 2014 to an estimated $2.42 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.09% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Fluor Corporation (NEW) revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $41.47. The company pays a dividend of $0.84 per share, for a yield of 1.4% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.67, which was below the industry average of 28.14, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.72.

Fluor Corporation (NEW) receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$2.72
Graham Number $41.47
PEmg 24.67
Current Ratio 1.57
PB Ratio 2.52
Current Dividend $0.84
Dividend Yield 1.41%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2017
Total Current Assets $5,601,257,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,574,170,000
Long-Term Debt $1,591,598,000
Total Assets $9,327,692,000
Intangible Assets $753,035,000
Total Liabilities $5,985,382,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 141,031,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.20
Dec2017 $1.36
Dec2016 $2.00
Dec2015 $2.81
Dec2014 $3.20
Dec2013 $4.06
Dec2012 $2.71
Dec2011 $3.40
Dec2010 $1.98
Dec2009 $3.75
Dec2008 $3.93
Dec2007 $2.93
Dec2006 $1.48
Dec2005 $1.31
Dec2004 $1.13
Dec2003 $0.98
Dec2002 $1.03
Dec2001 $0.13
Oct2000 $0.81
Oct1999 $0.69
Oct1998 $1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.42
Dec2017 $2.25
Dec2016 $2.78
Dec2015 $3.19
Dec2014 $3.28
Dec2013 $3.27
Dec2012 $2.97
Dec2011 $3.13
Dec2010 $2.94
Dec2009 $3.17
Dec2008 $2.64
Dec2007 $1.85
Dec2006 $1.26
Dec2005 $1.08
Dec2004 $0.91
Dec2003 $0.78
Dec2002 $0.73

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Fluor Corporation Valuation – December 2016 $FLR
Fluor Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $FLR
26 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 2/6/16
Fluor Corp Valuation – February 2016 Update $FLR
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 10/17/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Lennar Corp Valuation – April 2018 $LEN
Vulcan Materials Co Valuation – April 2018 $VMC
PulteGroup Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PHM
Sherwin-Williams Co Valuation – March 2018 $SHW
Cummins Inc Valuation – March 2018 $CMI
Johnson Controls International PLC Valuation – March 2018 $JCI
Flowserve Corp Valuation – February 2018 $FLS
Corning Inc Valuation – February 2018 $GLW
Home Depot Inc Valuation – February 2018 $HD
Caterpillar Inc Valuation – February 2018 $CAT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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