Prologis Inc Valuation – March 2019 #PLD

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Prologis, Inc., incorporated on November 24, 1997, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) company. The Company is engaged in logistics real estate business. The Company’s segments include Real Estate Operations and Strategic Capital. The Company is focused on markets across the United States, Other Americas, Europe and Asia. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned or had investments in, on an owned basis or through co-investment ventures, properties and development projects across 676 million square feet (63 million square meters) in 20 countries spanning four continents. The Company is the general partner of Prologis, L.P.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PLD – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $44,086,680,538 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.58 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -208.65% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.80 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.78 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.58 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 22.96 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.20
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $84.67
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $31.89
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.69
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.65%
Current Price $69.94
% of Intrinsic Value 82.60%

Prologis Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.95 in 2015 to an estimated $2.2 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 11.65% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Prologis Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $31.26. The company pays a dividend of $1.92 per share, for a yield of 2.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.8, which was below the industry average of 61.92, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.25.

Prologis Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.25
Graham Number $31.26
PEmg 31.80
Current Ratio 1.58
PB Ratio 1.78
Current Dividend $1.92
Dividend Yield 2.75%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

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Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $1,314,251,000
Total Current Liabilities $831,318,000
Long-Term Debt $11,089,815,000
Total Assets $38,417,664,000
Intangible Assets $450,690,000
Total Liabilities $12,616,776,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 655,159,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.23
Dec2018 $2.87
Dec2017 $3.06
Dec2016 $2.27
Dec2015 $1.64
Dec2014 $1.24
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 -$0.18
Dec2011 -$0.51
Dec2010 -$5.90
Dec2009 -$0.37
Dec2008 -$0.68
Dec2007 $2.96
Dec2006 $2.30
Dec2005 $2.85
Dec2004 $1.39
Dec2003 $1.41
Dec2002 $0.75
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.35
Dec1999 $1.94

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.20
Dec2018 $2.53
Dec2017 $2.16
Dec2016 $1.52
Dec2015 $0.95
Dec2014 $0.09
Dec2013 -$0.75
Dec2012 -$1.47
Dec2011 -$1.71
Dec2010 -$1.65
Dec2009 $0.78
Dec2008 $1.50
Dec2007 $2.45
Dec2006 $2.04
Dec2005 $1.80
Dec2004 $1.27
Dec2003 $1.26

Recommended Reading:

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Prologis Inc Valuation – May 2018 $PLD
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Prologis Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $PLD
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/1/14
Prologis Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $PLD

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

General Mills Inc Valuation – February 2019 $GIS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): General Mills, Inc., incorporated on June 20, 1928, is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods and pet food products sold through retail stores. The Company is a supplier of branded and unbranded consumer food products to the North American foodservice and commercial baking industries. It also provides pet food products through its subsidiary Blue Buffalo Pet Products Inc. The Company has four segments: U.S. Retail, International, Pet operating, and Convenience Stores and Foodservice. The Company offers a range of food products with a focus on categories, including ready-to-eat cereal; convenient meals, including meal kits, ethnic meals, pizza, soup, side dish mixes, frozen breakfast and frozen entrees; snacks, including grain, fruit and savory snacks, nutrition bars and frozen hot snacks; yogurt, and super-premium ice cream. The Company’s other product categories include baking mixes and ingredients, and refrigerated and frozen dough. The Company’s products are marketed under various brands, which include Annie’s, Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Bugles, Cascadian Farm, Cheerios, Chex, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Cocoa Puffs, Cookie Crisp, Fiber One, Food Should Taste Good, Fruit by the Foot, Fruit Gushers, Fruit Roll-Ups, Gardetto’s, Go-Gurt, Gold Medal, Golden Grahams, Haagen-Dazs, Helpers, Jeno’s, Jus-Rol, Kitano, Kix, La Saltena, Larabar, Latina, Liberte, Lucky Charms, Muir Glen, Nature Valley, Oatmeal Crisp, Old El Paso, Pillsbury, Progresso, Raisin Nut Bran, Total, Totino’s, Trix, Wanchai Ferry, Wheaties, Yoki and Yoplait. It also provides food products for dogs and cats through its subsidiary.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GIS – February 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $27,927,852,744 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.58 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 24.28% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.09 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.05 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.58 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -3.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.91
MG Growth Estimate 2.72%
MG Value $40.53
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $42.18
MG Value based on 0% Growth $24.72
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.79%
Current Price $46.80
% of Intrinsic Value 115.48%

General Mills, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.46 in 2015 to an estimated $2.91 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.79% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into General Mills, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.85. The company pays a dividend of $1.96 per share, for a yield of 4.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.09, which was below the industry average of 26.71, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-31.71.

General Mills, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$31.71
Graham Number $24.85
PEmg 16.09
Current Ratio 0.58
PB Ratio 4.05
Current Dividend $1.96
Dividend Yield 4.19%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 11/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,233,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,298,100,000
Long-Term Debt $12,208,600,000
Total Assets $30,384,000,000
Intangible Assets $21,221,000,000
Total Liabilities $23,404,600,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 604,500,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.65
May2018 $3.64
May2017 $2.77
May2016 $2.77
May2015 $1.97
May2014 $2.83
May2013 $2.79
May2012 $2.35
May2011 $2.70
May2010 $2.24
May2009 $1.90
May2008 $1.86
May2007 $1.59
May2006 $1.45
May2005 $1.54
May2004 $1.30
May2003 $1.22
May2002 $0.67
May2001 $1.14
May2000 $1.00
May1999 $0.85

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.91
May2018 $2.96
May2017 $2.62
May2016 $2.54
May2015 $2.46
May2014 $2.67
May2013 $2.52
May2012 $2.33
May2011 $2.23
May2010 $1.93
May2009 $1.74
May2008 $1.62
May2007 $1.48
May2006 $1.36
May2005 $1.27
May2004 $1.11
May2003 $1.00

Recommended Reading:

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General Mills Inc Valuation – May 2018 $GIS
General Mills Inc Valuation – January 2017 $GIS
General Mills Inc Valuation – August 2016 $GIS
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15
General Mills Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $GIS

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund Valuation – July 2018 $TSE:CHE.UN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (Chemtrade) provides industrial chemicals and services. Chemtrade operates in four business segments: Sulphur Products & Performance Chemicals (SPPC), Water Solutions & Specialty Chemicals (WSSC), International (Intl) and Corporate (Corp). Its SPPC segment markets, removes and produces merchant, regenerated sulfuric acid, liquid sulfur dioxide, sodium hydrosulfite, elemental sulfur, hydrogen sulfide, and sodium bisulfite and other processing services. Its WSSC segment manufactures and markets a range of inorganic coagulants used in water treatment, including aluminum sulfate, aluminum chlorohydrate, polyaluminum chloride and ferric sulfate, and various specialty chemicals. The Company’s Intl segment provides removal and marketing services for elemental sulfur and sulfuric acid. Its Corp segment provides centralized services, such as treasury, finance, information technology, human resources, legal and risk management.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CHE.UN – July 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,335,163,418 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.47 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -45.92% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 28.39 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.20 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.47 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 11.62 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.53
MG Growth Estimate -1.79%
MG Value $2.59
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $7.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.48
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.94%
Current Price $14.95
% of Intrinsic Value 576.79%

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.6 in 2014 to an estimated $0.53 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 9.94% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.05. The company pays a dividend of $1.2 per share, for a yield of 8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 28.39, which was below the industry average of 30.34, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.93.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.93
Graham Number $12.05
PEmg 28.39
Current Ratio 1.47
PB Ratio 1.20
Current Dividend $1.20
Dividend Yield 8.03%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $349,530,000
Total Current Liabilities $237,384,000
Long-Term Debt $1,303,484,000
Total Assets $2,976,182,000
Intangible Assets $1,269,955,000
Total Liabilities $1,824,792,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 92,596,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.52
Dec2017 $1.53
Dec2016 $0.07
Dec2015 -$0.69
Dec2014 $0.35
Dec2013 $0.13
Dec2012 $0.94
Dec2011 $1.48
Dec2010 $0.92
Dec2009 $1.52
Dec2008 $1.21
Dec2007 $0.61
Dec2006 $0.11
Dec2005 $0.48
Dec2004 $0.71
Dec2003 $0.81
Dec2002 $0.91
Dec2001 $0.46

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.53
Dec2017 $0.45
Dec2016 -$0.01
Dec2015 $0.11
Dec2014 $0.60
Dec2013 $0.81
Dec2012 $1.18
Dec2011 $1.24
Dec2010 $1.04
Dec2009 $1.00
Dec2008 $0.70
Dec2007 $0.48
Dec2006 $0.48
Dec2005 $0.66
Dec2004 $0.70
Dec2003 $0.60
Dec2002 $0.43

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Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CHE.UN

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Prologis Inc Valuation – May 2018 $PLD

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Prologis, Inc., incorporated on November 24, 1997, is a real estate investment trust (REIT) company. The Company is engaged in logistics real estate business. The Company’s segments include Real Estate Operations and Strategic Capital. The Company is focused on markets across the United States, Other Americas, Europe and Asia. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned or had investments in, on an owned basis or through co-investment ventures, properties and development projects across 676 million square feet (63 million square meters) in 20 countries spanning four continents. The Company is the general partner of Prologis, L.P.

PLD Chart

PLD data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PLD – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $33,743,240,892 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.66 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -195.28% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 32.46 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.23 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.66 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -40.30 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.95
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $75.00
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $28.25
MG Value based on 0% Growth $16.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.98%
Current Price $63.24
% of Intrinsic Value 84.32%

Prologis Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.09 in 2014 to an estimated $1.95 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 11.98% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Prologis Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $27.27. The company pays a dividend of $1.76 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 32.46, which was below the industry average of 46.75, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-24.42.

Prologis Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.42
Graham Number $27.27
PEmg 32.46
Current Ratio 0.66
PB Ratio 2.23
Current Dividend $1.76
Dividend Yield 2.78%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $458,099,000
Total Current Liabilities $692,853,000
Long-Term Debt $9,460,177,000
Total Assets $29,671,485,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $13,991,410,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 554,123,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.13
Dec2017 $3.06
Dec2016 $2.27
Dec2015 $1.64
Dec2014 $1.24
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 -$0.18
Dec2011 -$0.51
Dec2010 -$5.90
Dec2009 -$0.37
Dec2008 -$0.68
Dec2007 $2.96
Dec2006 $2.30
Dec2005 $2.85
Dec2004 $1.39
Dec2003 $1.41
Dec2002 $0.75
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.35
Dec1999 $1.94
Dec1998 $1.26

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.95
Dec2017 $2.16
Dec2016 $1.52
Dec2015 $0.95
Dec2014 $0.09
Dec2013 -$0.75
Dec2012 -$1.47
Dec2011 -$1.71
Dec2010 -$1.65
Dec2009 $0.78
Dec2008 $1.50
Dec2007 $2.45
Dec2006 $2.04
Dec2005 $1.80
Dec2004 $1.27
Dec2003 $1.26
Dec2002 $1.24

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Prologis Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $PLD
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/1/14
Prologis Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $PLD

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Duke Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $DRE
Realty Income Corp Valuation – April 2018 $O
Ventas Inc Valuation – April 2018 $VTR
SL Green Realty Corp Valuation – April 2018 $SLG
Regency Centers Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $REG
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc Valuation – April 2018 $HST
Vornado Realty Trust Valuation – April 2018 $VNO
Public Storage Valuation – March 2018 $PSA
Macerich Co Valuation – March 2018 $MAC
HCP Inc Valuation – March 2018 $HCP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

General Mills Inc Valuation – May 2018 $GIS

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): General Mills, Inc., incorporated on June 20, 1928, is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods and pet food products sold through retail stores. The Company is a supplier of branded and unbranded consumer food products to the North American foodservice and commercial baking industries. It also provides pet food products through its subsidiary Blue Buffalo Pet Products Inc. The Company has four segments: U.S. Retail, International, Pet operating, and Convenience Stores and Foodservice. The Company offers a range of food products with a focus on categories, including ready-to-eat cereal; convenient meals, including meal kits, ethnic meals, pizza, soup, side dish mixes, frozen breakfast and frozen entrees; snacks, including grain, fruit and savory snacks, nutrition bars and frozen hot snacks; yogurt, and super-premium ice cream. The Company’s other product categories include baking mixes and ingredients, and refrigerated and frozen dough. The Company’s products are marketed under various brands, which include Annie’s, Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Bugles, Cascadian Farm, Cheerios, Chex, Cinnamon Toast Crunch, Cocoa Puffs, Cookie Crisp, Fiber One, Food Should Taste Good, Fruit by the Foot, Fruit Gushers, Fruit Roll-Ups, Gardetto’s, Go-Gurt, Gold Medal, Golden Grahams, Haagen-Dazs, Helpers, Jeno’s, Jus-Rol, Kitano, Kix, La Saltena, Larabar, Latina, Liberte, Lucky Charms, Muir Glen, Nature Valley, Oatmeal Crisp, Old El Paso, Pillsbury, Progresso, Raisin Nut Bran, Total, Totino’s, Trix, Wanchai Ferry, Wheaties, Yoki and Yoplait. It also provides food products for dogs and cats through its subsidiary.

GIS Chart

GIS data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GIS – May 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $24,433,000,543 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 35.96% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.19 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 5.05 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.69 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -3.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.00
MG Growth Estimate 1.86%
MG Value $36.63
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $43.46
MG Value based on 0% Growth $25.48
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.85%
Current Price $42.54
% of Intrinsic Value 116.14%

General Mills, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.67 in 2014 to an estimated $3 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 2.85% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into General Mills, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $25.19. The company pays a dividend of $1.92 per share, for a yield of 4.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.19, which was below the industry average of 31.56, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-22.04.

General Mills, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$22.04
Graham Number $25.19
PEmg 14.19
Current Ratio 0.69
PB Ratio 5.05
Current Dividend $1.92
Dividend Yield 4.51%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 2/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,277,100,000
Total Current Liabilities $6,209,600,000
Long-Term Debt $7,163,600,000
Total Assets $22,240,600,000
Intangible Assets $13,471,400,000
Total Liabilities $17,275,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 589,800,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.76
May2017 $2.77
May2016 $2.77
May2015 $1.97
May2014 $2.83
May2013 $2.79
May2012 $2.35
May2011 $2.70
May2010 $2.24
May2009 $1.90
May2008 $1.86
May2007 $1.59
May2006 $1.45
May2005 $1.54
May2004 $1.30
May2003 $1.22
May2002 $0.67
May2001 $1.14
May2000 $1.00
May1999 $0.85
May1998 $0.65

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.00
May2017 $2.62
May2016 $2.54
May2015 $2.46
May2014 $2.67
May2013 $2.52
May2012 $2.33
May2011 $2.23
May2010 $1.93
May2009 $1.74
May2008 $1.62
May2007 $1.48
May2006 $1.36
May2005 $1.27
May2004 $1.11
May2003 $1.00
May2002 $0.88

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

General Mills Inc Valuation – January 2017 $GIS
General Mills Inc Valuation – August 2016 $GIS
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15
General Mills Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $GIS
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/12/14

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Monster Beverage Corp Valuation – April 2018 $MNST
Campbell Soup Co Valuation – March 2018 $CPB
Kellogg Company Valuation – March 2018 $K
Hershey Co Valuation – March 2018 $HSY
PepsiCo Inc Valuation – March 2018 $PEP
The Coca-Cola Co Valuation – February 2018 $KO
Campbell Soup Company Valuation – September 2017 $CPB
Post Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $POST
Dean Foods Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $DF
George Weston Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:WN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Prologis Inc (PLD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Prologis, Inc. is engaged in logistics real estate business, focused on markets across the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company owns or has investments in, on a basis or through co-investment ventures, properties and development projects in over 20 countries. Its segments include Real Estate Operations and Strategic Capital. It leases distribution facilities to over 5,200 customers across two categories, which include business-to-business and retail/online fulfillment. The Real Estate Operations segment consists of Rental Operations and Capital Deployment. The Strategic Capital segment represents the management of unconsolidated co-investment ventures. For business-to-business enterprises, its buildings serve a range of sectors, including automotive, transportation, pharmaceuticals and general consumer goods. In the area of retail/online fulfillment, its logistics facilities foster the seamless flow of goods around the world.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PLD – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $26,436,297,594 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.56 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 101.05% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 46.32 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.85 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.56 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -37.90 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.08
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $41.53
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $15.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $9.17
Market Implied Growth Rate 18.91%
Current Price $49.97
% of Intrinsic Value 120.33%

Prologis Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-1.47 in 2012 to an estimated $1.08 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 18.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Prologis Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.53. The company pays a dividend of $1.66 per share, for a yield of 3.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 46.33, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-28.72.

Prologis Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$28.72
Graham Number $24.53
PEmg 46.33
Current Ratio 0.56
PB Ratio 1.85
Current Dividend $1.66
Dividend Yield 3.32%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 3

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $375,120,000
Total Current Liabilities $672,111,000
Long-Term Debt $11,256,997,000
Total Assets $30,888,209,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $16,089,042,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 547,200,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.96
Dec2015 $1.64
Dec2014 $1.24
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 -$0.18
Dec2011 -$0.51
Dec2010 -$5.90
Dec2009 -$0.37
Dec2008 -$0.68
Dec2007 $2.96
Dec2006 $2.30
Dec2005 $2.85
Dec2004 $1.39
Dec2003 $1.41
Dec2002 $1.33
Dec2001 $1.41
Dec2000 $1.35
Dec1999 $1.94
Dec1998 $1.26
Dec1997 $1.38

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.08
Dec2015 $0.95
Dec2014 $0.09
Dec2013 -$0.75
Dec2012 -$1.47
Dec2011 -$1.71
Dec2010 -$1.65
Dec2009 $0.78
Dec2008 $1.50
Dec2007 $2.45
Dec2006 $2.08
Dec2005 $1.87
Dec2004 $1.38
Dec2003 $1.42
Dec2002 $1.43
Dec2001 $1.48
Dec2000 $1.40

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Prologis Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $PLD
28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/1/14
Prologis Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $PLD

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

CoreSite Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $COR
Senior Housing Properties Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $SNH
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SKT
Mack Cali Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $CLI
Chesapeake Lodging Trust Valuation – December 2016 $CHSP
Summit Hotel Properties Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $INN
Sabra Health Care REIT Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SBRA
National Retail Properties Inc Valuation – November 2016 $NNN
Welltower Inc Valuation – November 2016 $HCN
Realty Income Corp Valuation – November 2016 $O

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

General Mills Inc Valuation – January 2017 $GIS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how General Mills Inc (GIS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): General Mills, Inc. is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. The Company is a supplier of branded and unbranded food products to the North American foodservice and commercial baking industries. The Company has three segments: U.S. Retail, International, and Convenience Stores and Foodservice. Its products are marketed under various brands, which include Annie’s and Betty Crocker. The Company’s U.S. Retail segment reflects business with a range of grocery stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, natural food chains, drug, dollar and discount chains, and e-commerce grocery providers operating throughout the United States. The International segment consists of retail and foodservice businesses outside of the United States. The Convenience Stores and Foodservice segment’s product categories include ready-to-eat cereals, snacks, refrigerated yogurt, frozen meals, unbaked and fully baked frozen dough products, and baking mixes.

GIS Chart

GIS data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of GIS – January 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

 

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $35,317,230,637 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.66 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 25.77% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 23.23 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.76 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.66 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -3.07 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.63
MG Growth Estimate 0.64%
MG Value $25.71
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $38.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.35
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.37%
Current Price $61.08
% of Intrinsic Value 237.61%

General Mills, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.52 in 2013 to an estimated $2.63 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 7.37% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into General Mills, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $21.31. The company pays a dividend of $1.86 per share, for a yield of 3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 23.23, which was below the industry average of 24.74, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-22.19.

General Mills, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$22.19
Graham Number $21.31
PEmg 23.23
Current Ratio 0.66
PB Ratio 8.76
Current Dividend $1.86
Dividend Yield 3.05%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

 

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 11/1/2016
Total Current Assets $4,111,500,000
Total Current Liabilities $6,244,400,000
Long-Term Debt $6,542,000,000
Total Assets $21,602,100,000
Intangible Assets $13,166,500,000
Total Liabilities $17,421,500,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 599,700,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.80
May2016 $2.77
May2015 $1.97
May2014 $2.83
May2013 $2.79
May2012 $2.35
May2011 $2.70
May2010 $2.24
May2009 $1.90
May2008 $1.86
May2007 $1.59
May2006 $1.45
May2005 $1.54
May2004 $1.30
May2003 $1.22
May2002 $0.67
May2001 $1.14
May2000 $1.00
May1999 $0.85
May1998 $0.65
May1997 $0.69

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.63
May2016 $2.54
May2015 $2.46
May2014 $2.67
May2013 $2.52
May2012 $2.33
May2011 $2.23
May2010 $1.93
May2009 $1.74
May2008 $1.62
May2007 $1.48
May2006 $1.36
May2005 $1.27
May2004 $1.11
May2003 $1.00
May2002 $0.88
May2001 $0.95

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15
General Mills Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $GIS
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/12/14
General Mills (GIS) Annual Valuation – 2014

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Coca-Cola European Partners PLC Valuation – January 2017 $CCE
Archer Daniels Midland Company Valuation – January 2017 $ADM
McCormick & Company Valuation – January 2017 $MKC
Conagra Brands Inc Valuation – December 2016 $CAG
Seneca Foods Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $SENEA
Ingredion Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $INGR
Saputo Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SAP
Best Stocks to Invest In: the Food Processing Industry – August 2016
B&G Foods Inc Valuation – August 2016 $BGS
Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – August 2016 $TSN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CHE.UN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – December 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (TSE:CHE.UN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund (Chemtrade) provides industrial chemicals and services. Chemtrade operates in four business segments: Sulphur Products & Performance Chemicals (SPPC), Water Solutions & Specialty Chemicals (WSSC), International (Intl) and Corporate (Corp). Its SPPC segment markets, removes and produces merchant, regenerated sulfuric acid, liquid sulfur dioxide, sodium hydrosulfite, elemental sulfur, hydrogen sulfide, and sodium bisulfite and other processing services. Its WSSC segment manufactures and markets a range of inorganic coagulants used in water treatment, including aluminum sulfate, aluminum chlorohydrate, polyaluminum chloride and ferric sulfate, and various specialty chemicals. The Company’s Intl segment provides removal and marketing services for elemental sulfur and sulfuric acid. Its Corp segment provides centralized services, such as treasury, finance, information technology, human resources, legal and risk management.

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

*Note – This is a Canadian company. The currency in use is the Canadian Dollar.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CHE.UN – December 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,275,794,170 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.08 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -94.91% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 134.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.61 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.08 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 45.47 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.14
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $1.97
MG Value based on 0% Growth $1.16
Market Implied Growth Rate 62.88%
Current Price $18.26
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.18 in 2012 to an estimated $0.14 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 62.88% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $11.4. The company pays a dividend of $1.2 per share, for a yield of 6.6%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 134.26, which was above the industry average of 22.46. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.45.

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$16.45
Graham Number $11.40
PEmg 134.26
Current Ratio 1.08
PB Ratio 1.61
Current Dividend $1.20
Dividend Yield 6.57%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $254,093,000
Total Current Liabilities $236,146,000
Long-Term Debt $816,047,000
Total Assets $2,172,918,000
Intangible Assets $1,099,799,000
Total Liabilities $1,390,323,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 69,088,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.51
Dec2015 -$0.69
Dec2014 $0.35
Dec2013 $0.13
Dec2012 $0.94
Dec2011 $1.48
Dec2010 $0.92
Dec2009 $1.52
Dec2008 $1.21
Dec2007 $0.61
Dec2006 $0.11
Dec2005 $0.48
Dec2004 $0.71
Dec2003 $0.81
Dec2002 $0.91
Dec2001 $0.46

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.14
Dec2015 $0.11
Dec2014 $0.60
Dec2013 $0.81
Dec2012 $1.18
Dec2011 $1.24
Dec2010 $1.04
Dec2009 $1.00
Dec2008 $0.70
Dec2007 $0.48
Dec2006 $0.48
Dec2005 $0.66
Dec2004 $0.70
Dec2003 $0.60
Dec2002 $0.43
Dec2001 $0.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

General Mills Inc Valuation – August 2016 $GIS

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Companies Benjamin Graham Would Invest In Today – July 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how General Mills Inc (GIS) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): General Mills, Inc. is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. The Company is a supplier of branded and unbranded food products to the North American foodservice and commercial baking industries. The Company has three segments: U.S. Retail, International, and Convenience Stores and Foodservice. Its products are marketed under various brands, which include Annie’s and Betty Crocker. The Company’s U.S. Retail segment reflects business with a range of grocery stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, natural food chains, drug, dollar and discount chains, and e-commerce grocery providers operating throughout the United States. The International segment consists of retail and foodservice businesses outside of the United States. The Convenience Stores and Foodservice segment’s product categories include ready-to-eat cereals, snacks, refrigerated yogurt, frozen meals, unbaked and fully baked frozen dough products, and baking mixes.

GIS Chart

GIS data by YCharts

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ModernGraham Valuation of GIS – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $42,472,044,709 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.79 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 29.27% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 26.32 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 8.82 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.79 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -6.55 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

GIS value chart August 2016

EPSmg $2.70
MG Growth Estimate 1.05%
MG Value $28.64
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $39.14
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.94
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.91%
Current Price $71.04
% of Intrinsic Value 248.06%

General Mills, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.52 in 2013 to an estimated $2.7 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.91% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into General Mills, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $23.65. The company pays a dividend of $1.78 per share, for a yield of 2.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 26.32, which was below the industry average of 30.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-20.99.

General Mills, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

GIS charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.99
Graham Number $23.65
PEmg 26.32
Current Ratio 0.79
PB Ratio 8.82
Current Dividend $1.78
Dividend Yield 2.51%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 13

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ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 5/1/2016
Total Current Assets $3,937,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $5,014,700,000
Long-Term Debt $7,057,700,000
Total Assets $21,712,300,000
Intangible Assets $13,279,800,000
Total Liabilities $16,782,100,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 611,900,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.01
May2016 $2.77
May2015 $1.97
May2014 $2.83
May2013 $2.79
May2012 $2.35
May2011 $2.70
May2010 $2.24
May2009 $1.90
May2008 $1.86
May2007 $1.59
May2006 $1.45
May2005 $1.54
May2004 $1.30
May2003 $1.22
May2002 $0.67
May2001 $1.14
May2000 $1.00
May1999 $0.85
May1998 $0.65
May1997 $0.69

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.70
May2016 $2.54
May2015 $2.46
May2014 $2.67
May2013 $2.52
May2012 $2.33
May2011 $2.23
May2010 $1.93
May2009 $1.74
May2008 $1.62
May2007 $1.48
May2006 $1.36
May2005 $1.27
May2004 $1.11
May2003 $1.00
May2002 $0.88
May2001 $0.95

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15
General Mills Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $GIS
14 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/12/14
General Mills (GIS) Annual Valuation – 2014

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Archer Daniels Midland Co – August 2016 $ADM
Coca-Cola Co Valuation – July 2016 $KO
Monster Beverage Corp Valuation – July 2016 $MNST
Campbell Soup Company Valuation – July 2016 $CPB
Kellogg Company Valuation – July 2016 $K
Hershey Co Valuation – July 2016 $HSY
PepsiCo Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PEP
Mead Johnson Nutrition Valuation – June 2016 $MJN
B&G Foods Inc Valuation – March 2016 $BGS
Hormel Foods Corp Stock Valuation – February 2016 $HRL

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Prologis Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $PLD

REITs often attract a great deal of investors because of their strong cash flows and dividends, and those investors often overlook other parts of the business, choosing to analyze the company under a different set of criteria than companies in other sectors.  This can create a problem in that it becomes difficult to compare a REIT to an industrial, which is fine if you use the typical top-down approach to stock selection; however, a top-down approach invites speculation in the fact that you are theorizing which sector will perform well going forward.  Benjamin Graham taught that we should avoid speculation as much as possible, which is why it is critical to develop a system for analyzing companies that will allow them to be compared across industries.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another investment opportunity.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Prologis Inc. (PLD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Prologis, Inc. is engaged in industrial logistics real estate, focused on markets across the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company leases modern distribution facilities to more than 4,700 customers, including third-party logistics providers, transportation companies, retailers and manufacturers. The Company’s business consists of two operating segments: Real Estate Operations and Strategic Capital. The Company’s customer base represents a spectrum of international, national, regional and local distribution users. As of December 31, 2014, the Company owned or had investments in, on a wholly owned basis or through co-investment ventures, properties and development projects expected to total approximately 590 million square feet (55 million square meters) in 21 countries.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of PLD – October 2015

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,323,147,051 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.65 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -36.46% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 57.62 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.55 Pass
Score
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.65 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -65.03 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

PLD value Chart October 2015

EPSmg $0.74
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $28.64
Opinion Overvalued
MG Value based on 3% Growth $10.79
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.32
Market Implied Growth Rate 24.56%
Current Price $42.87
% of Intrinsic Value 149.66%

Prologis Inc. does not qualify for either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years and high PEmg ratio while the Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets and the insufficient earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should look for other opportunities or proceed with a cautious speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $1.71 in 2011 to an estimated gain of $0.74 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 24.56% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Prologis Inc. (PLD)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

PLD Charts October 2015

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$31.17
Graham Number $25.44
PEmg 57.62
Current Ratio 0.65
PB Ratio 1.55
Dividend Yield 3.22%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

 

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Total Current Assets $351,025,000
Total Current Liabilities $537,432,000
Long-Term Debt $12,121,310,000
Total Assets $31,602,400,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $16,891,650,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 530,640,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.03
Dec14 $1.24
Dec13 $0.64
Dec12 -$0.18
Dec11 -$0.51
Dec10 -$5.90
Dec09 -$0.37
Dec08 -$0.68
Dec07 $2.96
Dec06 $2.30
Dec05 $2.85
Dec04 $1.39
Dec03 $1.41
Dec02 $0.75
Dec01 $1.41
Dec00 $1.35
Dec99 $1.94
Dec98 $1.26
Dec97 $1.38

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.74
Dec14 $0.09
Dec13 -$0.75
Dec12 -$1.47
Dec11 -$1.71
Dec10 -$1.65
Dec09 $0.78
Dec08 $1.50
Dec07 $2.45
Dec06 $2.04
Dec05 $1.80
Dec04 $1.27
Dec03 $1.26
Dec02 $1.24
Dec01 $1.48
Dec00 $1.40
Dec99 $1.26

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

28 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/1/14
Prologis Inc. Annual Valuation – 2014 $PLD

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

HCP Inc. Valuation – October 2015 Update $HCP
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Macerich Company Analysis – September 2015 Update $MAC
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ARE
Weyerhaeuser Company Analysis – August 2015 Update $WY
Boston Properties Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $BXP
Health Care REIT Inc. Analysis – August 2015 Update $HCN
Kimco Realty Corporation Analysis – August 2015 Update $KIM
American Campus Communities Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $ACC
Ventas Inc. Analysis – 2015 Update $VTR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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