Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:CRR.UN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust (Crombie) is a Canada-based unincorporated open-ended real estate investment trust (REIT). Crombie invests in income-producing retail, office and mixed use properties in Canada. Crombie focuses on grocery-anchored and drug store-anchored retail properties. Crombie owns a portfolio of over 260 commercial properties in over 10 provinces, including approximately 17.7 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). Crombie instituted a distribution reinvestment plan (DRIP) whereby Canadian resident REIT unitholders may elect to automatically have their distributions reinvested in additional REIT units. Its property portfolio includes Aberdeen Business Centre, Barrington Place, Brunswick Place, Kenmount Business Centre, Barrington Tower, CIBC Building, Amherst Centre, Avalon Mall, County Fair Mall, 1 Avenue NW Safeway, 2 Avenue West Safeway, 13 Avenue, Territorial Drive Plaza, Fortune Drive Safeway, Kildonan Green and Yellowhead Highway Safeway.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CRR.UN – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,212,458,429 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.24 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -125.35% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -105.91 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.47 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.24 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -17.01 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.13
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$1.88
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$1.10
Market Implied Growth Rate -57.20%
Current Price $13.74
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $-0.08 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.13 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $8.59. The company pays a dividend of $0.89 per share, for a yield of 6.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -105.91, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.03.

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.03
Graham Number $8.59
PEmg -105.91
Current Ratio 0.24
PB Ratio 1.47
Current Dividend $0.89
Dividend Yield 6.49%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $42,642,000
Total Current Liabilities $177,364,000
Long-Term Debt $2,292,043,000
Total Assets $3,947,421,000
Intangible Assets $58,552,000
Total Liabilities $2,562,349,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 147,946,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.35
Dec2015 -$0.39
Dec2014 -$0.32
Dec2013 -$0.39
Dec2012 -$0.41
Dec2011 -$0.43
Dec2010 $0.44
Dec2009 $0.36
Dec2008 $0.57
Dec2007 $0.49
Dec2006 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.13
Dec2015 -$0.38
Dec2014 -$0.32
Dec2013 -$0.24
Dec2012 -$0.08
Dec2011 $0.16
Dec2010 $0.45
Dec2009 $0.43
Dec2008 $0.41
Dec2007 $0.28
Dec2006 $0.15

Recommended Reading:

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – August 2018 $TSE-CRR.UN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust is a Canada-based unincorporated open-ended real estate investment trust (REIT). The Trust invests in income-producing retail, office and mixed use properties in Canada. It owns and operates primarily retail and office real estate assets located in Canada. It owns a portfolio of over 280 investment properties in 10 provinces, comprising approximately 19.1 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). It focuses on owning, operating and developing a portfolio of high quality grocery and drug store anchored shopping centers, freestanding stores and mixed use developments primarily in Canada’s urban and suburban markets. Its property portfolio includes Aberdeen Business Centre, Barrington Place, Brunswick Place, Kenmount Business Centre, Barrington Tower, CIBC Building, Amherst Centre, Avalon Mall, County Fair Mall, 1 Avenue NW Safeway, 2 Avenue West Safeway, 13 Avenue, Kildonan Green, Yellowhead Highway Safeway, among others.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CRR.UN – August 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,178,043,838 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.11 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 77.21% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 98.21 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.35 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.11 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -5.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.13
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $5.16
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $1.94
MG Value based on 0% Growth $1.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 44.85%
Current Price $13.16
% of Intrinsic Value 255.09%

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.32 in 2014 to an estimated $0.13 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 44.85% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $7.74. The company pays a dividend of $0.89 per share, for a yield of 6.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 98.21, which was above the industry average of 47.15. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-16.77.

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$16.77
Graham Number $7.74
PEmg 98.21
Current Ratio 0.11
PB Ratio 1.35
Current Dividend $0.89
Dividend Yield 6.76%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $48,688,000
Total Current Liabilities $460,671,000
Long-Term Debt $2,108,185,000
Total Assets $4,063,543,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,587,986,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 151,463,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.46
Dec2017 $0.20
Dec2016 $0.00
Dec2015 -$0.39
Dec2014 -$0.32
Dec2013 -$0.39
Dec2012 -$0.41
Dec2011 -$0.43
Dec2010 $0.44
Dec2009 $0.36
Dec2008 $0.57
Dec2007 $0.49
Dec2006 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.13
Dec2017 -$0.08
Dec2016 -$0.25
Dec2015 -$0.38
Dec2014 -$0.32
Dec2013 -$0.24
Dec2012 -$0.08
Dec2011 $0.16
Dec2010 $0.45
Dec2009 $0.43
Dec2008 $0.41
Dec2007 $0.28
Dec2006 $0.15

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Overvalued Canadian Stocks for Intelligent Investors – March 2017
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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CoreSite Realty Corp Valuation – August 2018 $COR
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Mack-Cali Realty Corp Valuation – July 2018 $CLI
Chesapeake Lodging Trust Valuation – July 2018 $CHSP
Alexander & Baldwin Inc Valuation – July 2018 $ALEX

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

5 Overvalued Canadian Stocks for Intelligent Investors – March 2017

There are a number of great companies in the market today but there are also many which are overvalued by the market. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the most overvalued Canadian companies reviewed by ModernGraham.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

Suncor Energy Inc. (TSE:SU)

Suncor Energy Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $2.26 in 2013 to an estimated $0.84 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.49% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Suncor Energy Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $33.76. The company pays a dividend of $1.16 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 49.48, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.79.  (See the full valuation)

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:CRR.UN)

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $-0.08 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.13 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $8.59. The company pays a dividend of $0.89 per share, for a yield of 6.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -105.91, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.03.  (See the full valuation)

Crew Energy Inc (TSE:CR)

Crew Energy Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $-0.36 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.81 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Crew Energy Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -7.17. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.63.  (See the full valuation)

Crescent Point Energy Corp (TSE:CPG)

Crescent Point Energy Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.65 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.24 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Crescent Point Energy Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.74 per share, for a yield of 5.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -60.08, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-12.2.  (See the full valuation)

Spartan Energy Corp (TSE:SPE)

Spartan Energy Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.21 in 2012 to an estimated $-0.09 for 2016. This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Spartan Energy Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -30.22, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.7.  (See the full valuation)

What do you think?  Are these companies a good value for Defensive Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.  This article first appeared on ModernGraham.

Extra Space Storage Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $EXR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Extra Space Storage Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company operates through three segments: rental operations; tenant reinsurance, and property management, acquisition and development. The Company owns, operates, manages, acquires, develops and redevelops self-storage properties (stores). The Company has interests in approximately 1000 operating stores. Of these stores, the Company owns approximately 270 stores in joint venture partnerships. An additional approximately 350 operating stores are owned by third parties and operated by the Company. The Company’s operating stores are located in over 30 states of the United States, Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico, and contains approximately 100 million square feet of net rentable space in approximately 896,000 units. The Company’s businesses are conducted through Extra Space Storage LP. The Company’s rental operations activities include rental operations of stores.

EXR Chart

EXR data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EXR – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,914,532,260 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.16 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 504.42% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 36.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.16 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -10.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.18
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $83.96
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $31.62
MG Value based on 0% Growth $18.54
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.88%
Current Price $79.08
% of Intrinsic Value 94.19%

Extra Space Storage, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.99 in 2013 to an estimated $2.18 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 13.88% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Extra Space Storage, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $30.78. The company pays a dividend of $2.93 per share, for a yield of 3.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 36.26, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-37.89.

Extra Space Storage, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$37.89
Graham Number $30.78
PEmg 36.26
Current Ratio 0.16
PB Ratio 4.44
Current Dividend $2.93
Dividend Yield 3.71%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 8

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $74,353,000
Total Current Liabilities $466,388,000
Long-Term Debt $3,941,223,000
Total Assets $7,091,446,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $4,846,554,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 125,948,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.36
Dec2016 $2.91
Dec2015 $1.56
Dec2014 $1.53
Dec2013 $1.53
Dec2012 $1.14
Dec2011 $0.54
Dec2010 $0.30
Dec2009 $0.37
Dec2008 $0.46
Dec2007 $0.53
Dec2006 $0.27
Dec2005 -$0.14
Dec2004 -$1.68
Dec2003 -$5.62
Dec2002 -$3.84

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.18
Dec2016 $1.97
Dec2015 $1.42
Dec2014 $1.24
Dec2013 $0.99
Dec2012 $0.66
Dec2011 $0.43
Dec2010 $0.38
Dec2009 $0.38
Dec2008 $0.22
Dec2007 -$0.38
Dec2006 -$1.29
Dec2005 -$2.13
Dec2004 -$2.83
Dec2003 -$2.90
Dec2002 -$1.28

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

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American Tower Corp Valuation – February 2017 $AMT
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Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR
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Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

UDR Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $UDR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how UDR Inc (UDR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): UDR, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company owns, operates, acquires, renovates, develops, redevelops and manages multifamily apartment communities generally located in various markets across the United States. The Company operates through two segments: Same-Store Communities and Non-Mature Communities/Other. The Company’s consolidated real estate portfolio includes approximately 130 communities located in over 20 markets, with a total of approximately 40,730 completed apartment homes. The Company holds an ownership interest in approximately 30 communities containing over 6,700 apartment homes through unconsolidated joint ventures or partnerships. The Company is engaged in the development of a community with approximately 520 apartment homes and over four unconsolidated joint venture communities with approximately 1,170 apartment homes. The Company’s properties are located in various areas, such as California, Florida, Maryland, Oregon, Massachusetts and Texas.

UDR Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of UDR – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $9,471,963,779 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.15 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -34.26% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 50.19 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.10 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.15 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -14.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.72
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $27.54
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $10.37
MG Value based on 0% Growth $6.08
Market Implied Growth Rate 20.84%
Current Price $35.90
% of Intrinsic Value 130.35%

UDR, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.16 in 2013 to an estimated $0.72 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 20.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into UDR, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $7.85. The company pays a dividend of $1.18 per share, for a yield of 3.3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 50.19, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-17.

UDR, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.00
Graham Number $7.85
PEmg 50.19
Current Ratio 0.15
PB Ratio 3.10
Current Dividend $1.18
Dividend Yield 3.29%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $41,896,000
Total Current Liabilities $271,654,000
Long-Term Debt $3,401,478,000
Total Assets $7,679,584,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $4,586,474,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 267,311,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.24
Dec2016 $1.08
Dec2015 $1.29
Dec2014 $0.59
Dec2013 $0.16
Dec2012 $0.85
Dec2011 $0.05
Dec2010 -$0.68
Dec2009 -$0.64
Dec2008 $5.29
Dec2007 $1.41
Dec2006 $0.85
Dec2005 $1.03
Dec2004 $0.56
Dec2003 $0.21
Dec2002 $0.24
Dec2001 $0.27
Dec2000 $0.41
Dec1999 $0.54
Dec1998 $0.49
Dec1997 $0.60

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.72
Dec2016 $0.90
Dec2015 $0.74
Dec2014 $0.37
Dec2013 $0.16
Dec2012 $0.43
Dec2011 $0.51
Dec2010 $0.91
Dec2009 $1.66
Dec2008 $2.48
Dec2007 $0.99
Dec2006 $0.71
Dec2005 $0.58
Dec2004 $0.35
Dec2003 $0.28
Dec2002 $0.34
Dec2001 $0.41

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

American Tower Corp Valuation – February 2017 $AMT
Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSH.UN
Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR
Communications Sales & Leasing Valuation – Initial Coverage $CSAL
Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Digital Realty Trust Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DLR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Digital Realty Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company owns, acquires, develops and manages technology-related real estate. The Company is focused on providing data center and colocation solutions for domestic and international tenants across a range of industry verticals ranging from financial services, cloud and information technology services, to manufacturing, energy, healthcare and consumer products. The Company’s types of properties within its portfolio include corporate data centers; Internet gateway data centers, which serve as hubs for Internet and data communications within and between metropolitan areas, and office and other non-data center space. The Company’s portfolio consists of approximately 140 operating properties. The Company owns approximately 98.1% common general partnership interest in Digital Realty Trust, L.P.

DLR Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of DLR – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $17,382,182,416 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.65 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 200.60% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 68.05 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.20 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.65 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -17.06 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.59
MG Growth Estimate 0.96%
MG Value $16.57
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $23.08
MG Value based on 0% Growth $13.53
Market Implied Growth Rate 29.77%
Current Price $108.33
% of Intrinsic Value 653.61%

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.5 in 2013 to an estimated $1.59 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 29.77% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Digital Realty Trust, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.99. The company pays a dividend of $3.52 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 68.05, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-42.94.

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$42.94
Graham Number $26.99
PEmg 68.05
Current Ratio 0.65
PB Ratio 3.20
Current Dividend $3.52
Dividend Yield 3.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $626,735,000
Total Current Liabilities $969,072,000
Long-Term Debt $5,838,607,000
Total Assets $12,192,585,000
Intangible Assets $2,125,750,000
Total Liabilities $7,096,570,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 150,680,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.26
Dec2016 $2.20
Dec2015 $1.56
Dec2014 $0.99
Dec2013 $2.12
Dec2012 $1.48
Dec2011 $1.32
Dec2010 $0.68
Dec2009 $0.61
Dec2008 $0.38
Dec2007 $0.30
Dec2006 $0.47
Dec2005 $0.25
Dec2004 -$0.30

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.59
Dec2016 $1.73
Dec2015 $1.49
Dec2014 $1.41
Dec2013 $1.50
Dec2012 $1.09
Dec2011 $0.81
Dec2010 $0.54
Dec2009 $0.44
Dec2008 $0.31
Dec2007 $0.24
Dec2006 $0.16
Dec2005 $0.00
Dec2004 -$0.10

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

American Tower Corp Valuation – February 2017 $AMT
Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSH.UN
Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR
Communications Sales & Leasing Valuation – Initial Coverage $CSAL
Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MAA

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is a multifamily focused, self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company’s segments include Large market same store communities segment, including communities in markets with a population of approximately one million and approximately 1% of the total public multifamily REIT units that it has owned and that have been stabilized for over 12 months; Secondary market same store communities segment, including communities in markets with populations of approximately one million with over 1% of the total public multifamily REIT units or markets with populations of approximately one million that it has owned and that have been stabilized for approximately 12 months, and Non same store communities and other segment, including recent acquisitions, communities in development or lease-up, communities that have been identified for disposition, and communities that have undergone a significant casualty loss.

MAA Chart

MAA data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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ModernGraham Valuation of MAA – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $11,445,455,685 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.28 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 341.95% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.93 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.24 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.28 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -14.42 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $2.67
MG Growth Estimate 6.89%
MG Value $59.41
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $38.65
MG Value based on 0% Growth $22.66
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.71%
Current Price $101.09
% of Intrinsic Value 170.16%

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.83 in 2013 to an estimated $2.67 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.71% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $49.88. The company pays a dividend of $3.28 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.93, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-64.45.

Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$64.45
Graham Number $49.88
PEmg 37.93
Current Ratio 0.28
PB Ratio 1.24
Current Dividend $3.28
Dividend Yield 3.24%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 7

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $121,800,000
Total Current Liabilities $433,776,000
Long-Term Debt $4,499,712,000
Total Assets $11,604,491,000
Intangible Assets $1,239,000
Total Liabilities $5,200,672,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 78,800,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.96
Dec2016 $2.69
Dec2015 $4.41
Dec2014 $1.97
Dec2013 $2.25
Dec2012 $2.56
Dec2011 $1.31
Dec2010 $0.56
Dec2009 $0.85
Dec2008 $0.64
Dec2007 $1.01
Dec2006 $0.29
Dec2005 $0.25
Dec2004 $0.50
Dec2003 -$0.07
Dec2002 -$0.11
Dec2001 $0.72
Dec2000 $0.78
Dec1999 $0.93
Dec1998 $0.82
Dec1997 $0.43

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.67
Dec2016 $2.94
Dec2015 $2.87
Dec2014 $1.98
Dec2013 $1.83
Dec2012 $1.47
Dec2011 $0.91
Dec2010 $0.70
Dec2009 $0.71
Dec2008 $0.61
Dec2007 $0.53
Dec2006 $0.25
Dec2005 $0.24
Dec2004 $0.27
Dec2003 $0.26
Dec2002 $0.49
Dec2001 $0.77

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

American Tower Corp Valuation – February 2017 $AMT
Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSH.UN
Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR
Communications Sales & Leasing Valuation – Initial Coverage $CSAL
Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

American Tower Corp Valuation – February 2017 $AMT

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how American Tower Corp (AMT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): American Tower Corporation (ATC) is a holding company. The Company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT), which owns, operates and develops multitenant communications real estate. ATC’s segments include U.S. property, Asia property, EMEA property, Latin America property, Services and Other. Its primary business is property operations, which include the leasing of space on communications sites to wireless service providers, radio and television broadcast companies, wireless data providers, government agencies and municipalities, and tenants in various other industries. Its U.S. property segment includes operations in the United States. Its Asia property segment includes operations in India. The EMEA property segment includes operations in Germany, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa and Uganda. The Latin America property segment includes operations in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico and Peru. Its services segment offers tower-related services in the United States.

AMT Chart

AMT data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

[/level-free]
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ModernGraham Valuation of AMT – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $48,226,761,654 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.90 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 242.41% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 66.23 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 7.36 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.90 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -123.90 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.73
MG Growth Estimate 8.24%
MG Value $43.31
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $25.13
MG Value based on 0% Growth $14.73
Market Implied Growth Rate 28.86%
Current Price $114.79
% of Intrinsic Value 265.07%

American Tower Corp does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.12 in 2012 to an estimated $1.73 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 28.86% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into American Tower Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $26.63. The company pays a dividend of $2.08 per share, for a yield of 1.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 66.23, which was above the industry average of 31.91. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-52.51.

American Tower Corp scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$52.51
Graham Number $26.63
PEmg 66.23
Current Ratio 0.90
PB Ratio 7.36
Current Dividend $2.08
Dividend Yield 1.81%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $1,370,756,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,519,553,000
Long-Term Debt $18,436,144,000
Total Assets $30,655,527,000
Intangible Assets $16,555,188,000
Total Liabilities $23,948,131,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 429,925,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.00
Dec2015 $1.41
Dec2014 $2.00
Dec2013 $1.38
Dec2012 $1.60
Dec2011 $0.99
Dec2010 $0.92
Dec2009 $0.61
Dec2008 $0.84
Dec2007 $0.13
Dec2006 $0.06
Dec2005 -$0.60
Dec2004 -$1.10
Dec2003 -$1.56
Dec2002 -$5.95
Dec2001 -$2.35
Dec2000 -$1.15
Dec1999 -$0.34
Dec1998 -$0.59
Dec1997 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.73
Dec2015 $1.56
Dec2014 $1.55
Dec2013 $1.25
Dec2012 $1.12
Dec2011 $0.82
Dec2010 $0.66
Dec2009 $0.42
Dec2008 $0.17
Dec2007 -$0.31
Dec2006 -$0.96
Dec2005 -$1.76
Dec2004 -$2.36
Dec2003 -$2.75
Dec2002 -$2.93
Dec2001 -$1.24
Dec2000 -$0.60

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

American Tower Corp Valuation – November 2015 Update $AMT
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 11/22/14
American Tower Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $AMT

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSH.UN
Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR
Communications Sales & Leasing Valuation – Initial Coverage $CSAL
Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT
CoreSite Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $COR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chartwell Retirement Residences Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CSH.UN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSE:CSH.UN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Chartwell Retirement Residences is an unincorporated, open-ended trust. The Company indirectly owns, manages and operates a range of seniors housing communities from independent living through assisted living to long term care. Its segments include Canadian Retirement Operations and Canadian Long Term Care Operations. It owns and operates senior residences in Canada. Its portfolio of residences includes independent living residences for seniors that include retirement units/townhouses/bungalows providing meals and general services; independent supported living residences for seniors that include retirement units/townhouses/bungalows with household general services; assisted living residences for seniors requiring personal care services; memory care units for seniors having Alzheimer’s or other form of dementia and requiring personal care services, and Long term care residences for people requiring professional nursing care on a daily basis and over 24-hour supervision.

CSH.UN Chart

CSH.UN data by YCharts

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ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CSH.UN – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,019,830,731 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.15 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -183.89% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.00 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.61 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.15 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -6.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.53
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $20.30
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $7.65
MG Value based on 0% Growth $4.48
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.75%
Current Price $15.82
% of Intrinsic Value 77.92%

Chartwell Retirement Residences does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.63 in 2012 to an estimated $0.53 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 10.75% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chartwell Retirement Residences revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $3.44. The company pays a dividend of $0.55 per share, for a yield of 3.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 30, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-9.97.

Chartwell Retirement Residences receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$9.97
Graham Number $3.44
PEmg 30.00
Current Ratio 0.15
PB Ratio 3.61
Current Dividend $0.55
Dividend Yield 3.46%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 2

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ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2016
Total Current Assets $41,926,000
Total Current Liabilities $275,355,000
Long-Term Debt $1,629,628,000
Total Assets $2,764,873,000
Intangible Assets $57,573,000
Total Liabilities $1,933,918,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 189,701,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.12
Dec2015 $1.99
Dec2014 -$0.05
Dec2013 $0.14
Dec2012 -$0.80
Dec2011 -$0.43
Dec2010 -$0.43
Dec2009 -$0.68
Dec2008 -$1.03
Dec2007 -$0.76
Dec2006 -$0.24
Dec2005 -$0.28
Dec2004 -$0.19
Dec2003 -$0.06

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.53
Dec2015 $0.54
Dec2014 -$0.22
Dec2013 -$0.36
Dec2012 -$0.63
Dec2011 -$0.58
Dec2010 -$0.65
Dec2009 -$0.70
Dec2008 -$0.64
Dec2007 -$0.40
Dec2006 -$0.20
Dec2005 -$0.15
Dec2004 -$0.08
Dec2003 -$0.02

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR
Communications Sales & Leasing Valuation – Initial Coverage $CSAL
Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT
CoreSite Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $COR
Senior Housing Properties Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $SNH

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Equity Residential Valuation – February 2017 $EQR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – February 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Equity Residential (EQR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Equity Residential is a real estate investment trust. The Company is focused on the acquisition, development and management of apartment properties in various markets of the United States. The Company’s segments include Boston, New York, San Francisco, Seattle, Southern California, Washington D.C., Non-core – South Florida, Non-core – Denver, and Non-core – other. ERP Operating Limited Partnership (Operating Partnership) conducts the multifamily residential property business of the Company. The Company’s property ownership, development and related business operations are conducted through the Operating Partnership. The Company holds interests in approximately 390 properties located in over 10 states and the District of Columbia, consisting of approximately 109,650 apartment units. Its properties are of various building types, such as garden, mid/high-rise and military housing. Its core properties are located in New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle and San Diego, among others.

EQR Chart

EQR data by YCharts

[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of EQR – February 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,976,699,323 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.37 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 308.15% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.99 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.34 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.37 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -33.64 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.49
MG Growth Estimate 5.73%
MG Value $89.59
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $65.08
MG Value based on 0% Growth $38.15
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.74%
Current Price $62.78
% of Intrinsic Value 70.08%

Equity Residential qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.25 in 2013 to an estimated $4.49 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.74% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Equity Residential revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $24.78. The company pays a dividend of $2.02 per share, for a yield of 3.2%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.99, which was below the industry average of 31.91, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-27.02.

Equity Residential performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$27.02
Graham Number $24.78
PEmg 13.99
Current Ratio 0.37
PB Ratio 2.34
Current Dividend $2.02
Dividend Yield 3.21%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $154,153,000
Total Current Liabilities $420,722,000
Long-Term Debt $8,967,260,000
Total Assets $20,704,148,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $10,475,070,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 381,992,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.98
Dec2016 $11.68
Dec2015 $2.36
Dec2014 $1.73
Dec2013 $5.16
Dec2012 $2.70
Dec2011 $2.98
Dec2010 $0.95
Dec2009 $1.27
Dec2008 $1.46
Dec2007 $3.39
Dec2006 $3.50
Dec2005 $2.79
Dec2004 $1.50
Dec2003 $1.57
Dec2002 $1.18
Dec2001 $1.34
Dec2000 $1.67
Dec1999 $1.14
Dec1998 $0.82
Dec1997 $0.88

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.49
Dec2016 $5.74
Dec2015 $2.84
Dec2014 $2.95
Dec2013 $3.25
Dec2012 $2.15
Dec2011 $1.92
Dec2010 $1.63
Dec2009 $2.14
Dec2008 $2.56
Dec2007 $2.93
Dec2006 $2.50
Dec2005 $1.89
Dec2004 $1.44
Dec2003 $1.40
Dec2002 $1.29
Dec2001 $1.29

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Equity Residential Analysis – 2015 Update $EQR
17 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – June 21, 2014
Equity Residential Annual Valuation – 2014 $EQR

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Communications Sales & Leasing Valuation – Initial Coverage $CSAL
Kite Realty Group Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRG
Kilroy Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $KRC
Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CRR.UN
Smart REIT Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SRU.UN
Prologis Inc Valuation – February 2017 $PLD
Camden Property Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPT
CoreSite Realty Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $COR
Senior Housing Properties Trust Valuation – Initial Coverage $SNH
Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SKT

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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