Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Cenovus Energy Inc (TSE:CVE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Cenovus Energy Inc. is a Canada-based integrated oil company. The Company is engaged in the business of developing, producing and marketing crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas. Its segments include Oil Sands, Conventional, Refining and Marketing, and Corporate and Eliminations. Its Oil Sands segment includes the development and production of bitumen and natural gas in northeast Alberta. Its bitumen assets include Foster Creek, Christina Lake and Narrows Lake, as well as projects in the early-stages of development, such as Grand Rapids and Telephone Lake. Its Conventional segment includes the development and production of conventional crude oil, NGLs and natural gas in Alberta and Saskatchewan, including the heavy oil assets at Pelican Lake, the carbon dioxide (CO2) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project at Weyburn. Its Refining and Marketing segment includes transporting and selling crude oil and natural gas and joint ownership of two refineries in the United States.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CVE – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $13,722,994,610 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.55 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -94.33% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 65.48 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.19 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.55 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.53 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.25
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $3.65
MG Value based on 0% Growth $2.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 28.49%
Current Price $16.50
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Cenovus Energy Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.29 in 2013 to an estimated $0.25 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 28.49% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Cenovus Energy Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $9.02. The company pays a dividend of $0.2 per share, for a yield of 1.2% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 65.48, which was below the industry average of 69.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-8.22.

Cenovus Energy Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$8.22
Graham Number $9.02
PEmg 65.48
Current Ratio 2.55
PB Ratio 1.19
Current Dividend $0.20
Dividend Yield 1.21%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $6,822,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,671,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,332,000,000
Total Assets $25,258,000,000
Intangible Assets $242,000,000
Total Liabilities $13,668,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 833,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.26
Dec2016 -$0.65
Dec2015 $0.75
Dec2014 $0.98
Dec2013 $0.87
Dec2012 $1.31
Dec2011 $1.95
Dec2010 $1.43
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $3.83

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.25
Dec2016 $0.38
Dec2015 $0.99
Dec2014 $1.18
Dec2013 $1.29
Dec2012 $1.64
Dec2011 $1.76
Dec2010 $1.53
Dec2009 $1.39
Dec2008 $1.28

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – October 2018 $TSE-CVE

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Cenovus Energy Inc is a Canada-based integrated oil and natural gas company. The Company’s operations, include oil sands projects in northern Alberta and oil production in Alberta and British Columbia. The Company is owner of two projects that are producing oil, Christina Lake and Foster Creek. The oil sands projects use a drilling method called steam-assisted gravity drainage or SAGD for short. The SAGD process uses natural gas to heat water into steam, which helps The Company to extract the oil out of the oil sands. The company also holds interest in two United States refineries, Wood River located in Roxana Illinois and Borger located in Borger Texas.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-CVE – October 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $16,400,000,000 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.17 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -57.49% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.02 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.84 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.17 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 15.37 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.68
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth $9.89
MG Value based on 0% Growth $5.80
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.26%
Current Price $12.97
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Cenovus Energy Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.18 in 2014 to an estimated $0.68 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.26% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Cenovus Energy Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $0.2 per share, for a yield of 1.5% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.02, which was below the industry average of 60.49, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-13.61.

Cenovus Energy Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$13.61
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 19.02
Current Ratio 1.17
PB Ratio 0.84
Current Dividend $0.20
Dividend Yield 1.54%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,566,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,916,000,000
Long-Term Debt $9,992,000,000
Total Assets $40,299,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,272,000,000
Total Liabilities $21,296,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,229,300,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.50
Dec2017 $3.05
Dec2016 -$0.65
Dec2015 $0.75
Dec2014 $0.98
Dec2013 $0.87
Dec2012 $1.31
Dec2011 $1.95
Dec2010 $1.43
Dec2009 $1.09
Dec2008 $3.83

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.68
Dec2017 $1.18
Dec2016 $0.38
Dec2015 $0.99
Dec2014 $1.18
Dec2013 $1.29
Dec2012 $1.64
Dec2011 $1.76
Dec2010 $1.53
Dec2009 $1.39
Dec2008 $1.28

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE

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Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Exxon Mobil Corp Valuation – February 2018 $XOM

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Exxon Mobil Corp. engages in the exploration, development, and distribution of oil, gas, and petroleum products. It operates through the following segments: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. The Upstream segment produces crude oil and natural gas. The Downstream segment manufactures and trades petroleum products. The Chemical segment offers petrochemicals. The company was founded by John D. Rockefeller in 1882 and is headquartered in Irving, TX.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of XOM – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $328,502,862,703 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.85 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -50.69% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 19.55 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.82 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.85 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -3.10 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.97
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $57.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth $33.71
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.52%
Current Price $77.53
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Exxon Mobil Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $7.82 in 2013 to an estimated $3.97 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.52% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Exxon Mobil Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $56.92. The company pays a dividend of $2.98 per share, for a yield of 3.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 19.55, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-28.42.

Exxon Mobil Corporation scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$28.42
Graham Number $56.92
PEmg 19.55
Current Ratio 0.85
PB Ratio 1.82
Current Dividend $2.98
Dividend Yield 3.84%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 14

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2017
Total Current Assets $45,752,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $53,777,000,000
Long-Term Debt $24,869,000,000
Total Assets $349,427,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $167,151,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 4,271,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.57
Dec2016 $1.88
Dec2015 $3.85
Dec2014 $7.60
Dec2013 $7.37
Dec2012 $9.70
Dec2011 $8.42
Dec2010 $6.22
Dec2009 $3.98
Dec2008 $8.66
Dec2007 $7.26
Dec2006 $6.62
Dec2005 $5.71
Dec2004 $3.89
Dec2003 $3.23
Dec2002 $1.68
Dec2001 $2.21
Dec2000 $2.52
Dec1999 $1.13
Dec1998 $1.14
Dec1997 $1.69

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.97
Dec2016 $4.80
Dec2015 $6.64
Dec2014 $7.98
Dec2013 $7.82
Dec2012 $7.83
Dec2011 $6.90
Dec2010 $6.28
Dec2009 $6.35
Dec2008 $7.17
Dec2007 $6.06
Dec2006 $5.05
Dec2005 $3.96
Dec2004 $2.96
Dec2003 $2.38
Dec2002 $1.88
Dec2001 $1.90

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Most Overvalued Stocks of the S&P 500 – March 2017
5 Overvalued Dow Components – February 2017
Exxon Mobil Corp Valuation – February 2017 $XOM
5 Overvalued Dow Components – December 2016
Exxon Mobil Corporation Valuation – August 2016 $XOM

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Seven Generations Energy Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:VII
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Tesco Corporation (USA) Valuation – Initial Coverage $TESO
Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – July 2017 $SWN
Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Chevron Corp Valuation – February 2018 $CVX

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): Chevron Corp. engages in the business of integrated energy and chemical operations. It operates through the Upstream and Downstream segments. The Upstream segment consists primarily of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; and a gas-to-liquids project. The Downstream segment consists primarily of refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing of crude oil and refined products; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in San Ramon, CA.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of CVX – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $213,850,502,584 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.04 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -68.25% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 30.47 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.45 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.04 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 28.92 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.70
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $53.58
MG Value based on 0% Growth $31.41
Market Implied Growth Rate 10.98%
Current Price $112.59
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Chevron Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $11.43 in 2014 to an estimated $3.7 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.98% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Chevron Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company pays a dividend of $4.32 per share, for a yield of 3.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 30.47, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-41.7.

Chevron Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$41.70
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 30.47
Current Ratio 1.04
PB Ratio 1.45
Current Dividend $4.32
Dividend Yield 3.84%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 9/1/2017
Total Current Assets $29,398,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $28,223,000,000
Long-Term Debt $33,983,000,000
Total Assets $255,160,000,000
Intangible Assets $4,531,000,000
Total Liabilities $108,447,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,895,879,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.36
Dec2017 $4.85
Dec2016 -$0.27
Dec2015 $2.45
Dec2014 $10.14
Dec2013 $11.09
Dec2012 $13.32
Dec2011 $13.44
Dec2010 $9.48
Dec2009 $5.24
Dec2008 $11.67
Dec2007 $8.77
Dec2006 $7.80
Dec2005 $6.54
Dec2004 $6.28
Dec2003 $3.48
Dec2002 $0.53
Dec2001 $1.55
Dec2000 $3.99
Dec1999 $1.57
Dec1998 $1.02

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.70
Dec2017 $4.13
Dec2016 $4.96
Dec2015 $8.41
Dec2014 $11.43
Dec2013 $11.55
Dec2012 $11.40
Dec2011 $10.20
Dec2010 $8.58
Dec2009 $8.09
Dec2008 $9.08
Dec2007 $7.38
Dec2006 $6.10
Dec2005 $4.72
Dec2004 $3.60
Dec2003 $2.25
Dec2002 $1.66

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
5 Overvalued Dow Components – February 2017
Chevron Corp Valuation – August 2016 $CVX
5 Most Overvalued Dow Components – July 2015
5 Most Overvalued Dow Components – June 2015

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Seven Generations Energy Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:VII
Pioneer Natural Resources Valuation – September 2017 $PXD
Gulfport Energy Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPOR
Schlumberger Limited Valuation – July 2017 $SLB
Tesco Corporation (USA) Valuation – Initial Coverage $TESO
Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – July 2017 $SWN
Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Seven Generations Energy Ltd Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:VII

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Seven Generations Energy Ltd (TSE:VII) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Seven Generations Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based natural gas developer. The Company focuses on exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas properties in western Canada. The Company focuses on the acquisition, development and value optimization of tight and shale hydrocarbon resource plays. The Company focuses on Montney Kakwa River Project, which is located approximately 100 kilometers south of its operations in Grande Prairie, Alberta. The Kakwa River Project covers an area of approximately 544,000 net acres in the Kakwa area of northwest Alberta. The Company’s natural gas production is processed at its Lator 1 Plant, Lator 2 Plant and Cutbank Plant, as well as at the Kakwa River Gas Plant. The Company’s processing capacity at its Lator 1 Plant and Lator 2 Plant combined is approximately 260 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d). The Company has an inventory of over 80 wells at various stages of construction and approximately 230 Montney horizontal wells.

 

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ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-VII – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $6,773,177,276 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -366.67% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 119.94 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.64 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.69 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 6.84 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.16
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $6.13
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $2.31
MG Value based on 0% Growth $1.35
Market Implied Growth Rate 55.72%
Current Price $19.11
% of Intrinsic Value 311.53%

Seven Generations Energy Ltd does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability over the last five years, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $-0.03 in 2013 to an estimated $0.16 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 55.72% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Seven Generations Energy Ltd revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $13.66.  The company does not pay a dividend.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 119.94, which was above the industry average of 63.11.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-5.97.

Seven Generations Energy Ltd scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$5.97
Graham Number $13.66
PEmg 119.94
Current Ratio 1.69
PB Ratio 1.64
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $733,200,000
Total Current Liabilities $434,500,000
Long-Term Debt $2,041,900,000
Total Assets $7,172,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,914,200,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 365,100,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.76
Dec2016 -$0.09
Dec2015 -$0.75
Dec2014 $0.64
Dec2013 -$0.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.16
Dec2016 -$0.11
Dec2015 -$0.10
Dec2014 $0.19
Dec2013 -$0.03

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Gulfport Energy Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPOR
Schlumberger Limited Valuation – July 2017 $SLB
Tesco Corporation (USA) Valuation – Initial Coverage $TESO
Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – July 2017 $SWN
Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG
Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
CARBO Ceramics Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Pioneer Natural Resources Valuation – September 2017 $PXD

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Pioneer Natural Resources Company is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company explores for, develops and produces oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and gas within the United States, with operations primarily in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale play in South Texas, the Raton field in southeast Colorado and the West Panhandle field in the Texas Panhandle. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned interests in eight gas processing plants and nine treating facilities. As of December 31, 2016, its Spraberry/Wolfcamp field covered approximately 800,000 gross acres (690,000 net acres). The Company completed 12 Eagle Ford Shale wells during the fiscal year ended December 31, 2016. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned approximately 185,000 gross acres (165,000 net acres) in the center of the Raton Basin. As of December 31, 2016, the Company’s gas had an average energy content of 1,400 British thermal unit (Btu).

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ModernGraham Valuation of PXD – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,304,888,628 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.97 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -137.93% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 1,311.30 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.10 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.97 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.51 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $0.10
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade F
MG Value based on 3% Growth $1.45
MG Value based on 0% Growth $0.85
Market Implied Growth Rate 651.40%
Current Price $131.13
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Pioneer Natural Resources does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.37 in 2013 to an estimated $0.1 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 651.4% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Pioneer Natural Resources revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $61.59.  The company pays a dividend of $0.08 per share, for a yield of 0.1%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 1311.3, which was above the industry average of 63.11.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-15.35.

Pioneer Natural Resources scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of F.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$15.35
Graham Number $61.59
PEmg 1,311.30
Current Ratio 1.97
PB Ratio 2.10
Current Dividend $0.08
Dividend Yield 0.06%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $3,064,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,558,000,000
Long-Term Debt $2,281,000,000
Total Assets $16,271,000,000
Intangible Assets $270,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,674,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 170,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.75
Dec2016 -$3.34
Dec2015 -$1.83
Dec2014 $6.38
Dec2013 -$6.16
Dec2012 $1.50
Dec2011 $6.88
Dec2010 $5.08
Dec2009 -$0.46
Dec2008 $1.76
Dec2007 $3.06
Dec2006 $5.81
Dec2005 $3.80
Dec2004 $2.46
Dec2003 $3.46
Dec2002 $0.23
Dec2001 $1.00
Dec2000 $1.53
Dec1999 -$0.22
Dec1998 -$7.46
Dec1997 -$17.14

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $0.10
Dec2016 -$1.05
Dec2015 $0.52
Dec2014 $2.04
Dec2013 $0.37
Dec2012 $3.41
Dec2011 $3.99
Dec2010 $2.72
Dec2009 $1.96
Dec2008 $3.24
Dec2007 $3.89
Dec2006 $3.92
Dec2005 $2.71
Dec2004 $2.02
Dec2003 $1.60
Dec2002 $0.12
Dec2001 -$1.44

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Pioneer Natural Resources Annual Valuation – 2015 $PXD

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Gulfport Energy Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPOR
Schlumberger Limited Valuation – July 2017 $SLB
Tesco Corporation (USA) Valuation – Initial Coverage $TESO
Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – July 2017 $SWN
Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG
Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
CARBO Ceramics Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Gulfport Energy Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPOR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Gulfport Energy Corp (GPOR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Gulfport Energy Corporation is an oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The Company focuses on the exploitation and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids and crude oil in the United States. The Company’s properties are located in the Utica Shale in Eastern Ohio and along the Louisiana Gulf Coast in the West Cote Blanche Bay (WCBB) and Hackberry fields. The Company also has an interest in producing properties in Northwestern Colorado in the Niobrara Formation and in Western North Dakota in the Bakken Formation. The Company also holds an acreage position in the Alberta oil sands in Canada through its interest in Grizzly Oil Sands ULC and an interest in an entity that operates in the Phu Horm gas field in Thailand. The Company also owns interests in various fields, which includes Deer Island, Fay South, Crest, Squaw Cheek, Green River Basin and Watonga Chickasha Trend.

GPOR Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of GPOR – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $2,196,087,535 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.63 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 550.18% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -3.76 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.75 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.63 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -9.39 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$3.19
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$46.26
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$27.12
Market Implied Growth Rate -6.13%
Current Price $12.01
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Gulfport Energy Corporation does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.6 in 2013 to an estimated $-3.19 for 2017.  This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Gulfport Energy Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $32.03.  The company does not pay a dividend.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -3.76, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-11.19.

Gulfport Energy Corporation receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$11.19
Graham Number $32.03
PEmg -3.76
Current Ratio 0.63
PB Ratio 0.75
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $332,589,000
Total Current Liabilities $524,630,000
Long-Term Debt $1,802,554,000
Total Assets $5,294,155,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $2,379,316,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 182,842,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.62
Dec2016 -$7.97
Dec2015 -$12.27
Dec2014 $2.88
Dec2013 $1.97
Dec2012 $1.21
Dec2011 $2.20
Dec2010 $1.07
Dec2009 $0.55
Dec2008 -$4.33
Dec2007 $1.01
Dec2006 $0.82
Dec2005 $0.34
Dec2004 $0.28
Dec2003 -$0.02
Dec2002 -$0.06
Dec2001 $0.52
Dec2000 $0.43
Dec1999 $0.13
Dec1998 -$72.35
Dec1997 $171.87

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$3.19
Dec2016 -$5.01
Dec2015 -$2.62
Dec2014 $2.09
Dec2013 $1.60
Dec2012 $0.99
Dec2011 $0.62
Dec2010 -$0.17
Dec2009 -$0.64
Dec2008 -$0.95
Dec2007 $0.66
Dec2006 $0.41
Dec2005 $0.21
Dec2004 $0.17
Dec2003 $0.15
Dec2002 -$4.60
Dec2001 $2.13

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Schlumberger Limited Valuation – July 2017 $SLB
Tesco Corporation (USA) Valuation – Initial Coverage $TESO
Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – July 2017 $SWN
Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG
Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
CARBO Ceramics Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRR
Concho Resources Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CXO

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Schlumberger Limited Valuation – July 2017 $SLB

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Schlumberger Limited (SLB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Schlumberger N.V. provides technology for reservoir characterization, drilling, production and processing to the oil and gas industry. The Company’s segments include Reservoir Characterization Group, Drilling Group, Production Group and Cameron Group. The Reservoir Characterization Group consists of the principal technologies involved in finding and defining hydrocarbon resources. The Drilling Group consists of the principal technologies involved in the drilling and positioning of oil and gas wells. The Production Group consists of the principal technologies involved in the lifetime production of oil and gas reservoirs and includes Well Services, Completions, Artificial Lift, Integrated Production Services (IPS) and Schlumberger Production Management (SPM). The Cameron Group consists of the principal technologies involved in pressure and flow control for drilling and intervention rigs, oil and gas wells and production facilities.

SLB Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of SLB – July 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $93,361,512,558 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.59 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -79.27% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 45.26 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.31 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.59 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.04 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.48
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $21.41
MG Value based on 0% Growth $12.55
Market Implied Growth Rate 18.38%
Current Price $66.83
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Schlumberger Limited. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $4.13 in 2013 to an estimated $1.48 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 18.38% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Schlumberger Limited. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $34.29.  The company pays a dividend of $2 per share, for a yield of 3%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 45.26, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-9.76.

Schlumberger Limited. scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$9.76
Graham Number $34.29
PEmg 45.26
Current Ratio 1.59
PB Ratio 2.31
Current Dividend $2.00
Dividend Yield 2.99%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2017
Total Current Assets $21,883,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $13,776,000,000
Long-Term Debt $16,538,000,000
Total Assets $76,175,000,000
Intangible Assets $34,788,000,000
Total Liabilities $35,569,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 1,402,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.77
Dec2016 -$1.24
Dec2015 $1.63
Dec2014 $4.16
Dec2013 $5.05
Dec2012 $4.10
Dec2011 $3.67
Dec2010 $3.38
Dec2009 $2.59
Dec2008 $4.45
Dec2007 $4.20
Dec2006 $3.01
Dec2005 $1.82
Dec2004 $1.02
Dec2003 $0.33
Dec2002 -$1.99
Dec2001 $0.91
Dec2000 $0.64
Dec1999 $0.33
Dec1998 $0.91
Dec1997 $1.24

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.48
Dec2016 $1.80
Dec2015 $3.45
Dec2014 $4.27
Dec2013 $4.13
Dec2012 $3.66
Dec2011 $3.52
Dec2010 $3.47
Dec2009 $3.41
Dec2008 $3.52
Dec2007 $2.72
Dec2006 $1.60
Dec2005 $0.74
Dec2004 $0.19
Dec2003 -$0.13
Dec2002 -$0.19
Dec2001 $0.74

Recommended Reading:

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Schlumberger Ltd Valuation – February 2016 $SLB
Schlumberger Limited Valuation – October 2015 Update $SLB
Schlumberger Limited Analysis – July 2015 Update $SLB
Schlumberger Limited Quarterly Valuation – April 2015 $SLB
Schlumberger Limited Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $SLB

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Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
CARBO Ceramics Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRR
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Murphy Oil Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $MUR
Suncor Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SU
CST Brands Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CST

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Tesco Corporation (USA) Valuation – Initial Coverage $TESO

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Tesco Corporation (USA) (TESO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tesco Corporation is a provider of technology-based solutions for drilling, servicing and completion of wells for the upstream energy industry. The Company’s operations consist of top drives and automated pipe handling equipment sales and rentals; aftermarket sales and services, and tubular services, including related products and accessories sales. Its segments include Products, Tubular Services, Research and Engineering, and Corporate and Other. The Products segment includes top drives and automated pipe handling equipment sales, rentals and aftermarket sales and services. The Tubular Services segment includes onshore and offshore tubular services and sales of related products and accessories. The Research and Engineering segment includes internal research, engineering, and development activities related to its products and tubular services. The Corporate and Other segment includes executive management and various global support and compliance functions.

TESO Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of TESO – July 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $217,205,339 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 6.51 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -618.38% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -2.91 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 0.72 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 6.51 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.00 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$1.58
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $3.84
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$22.92
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$13.44
Market Implied Growth Rate -5.71%
Current Price $4.60
% of Intrinsic Value 119.83%

Tesco Corporation (USA) does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.79 in 2013 to an estimated $-1.58 for 2017.  This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tesco Corporation (USA) revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0.  The company does not pay a dividend.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -2.91, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $3.84.

Tesco Corporation (USA) scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $3.84
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -2.91
Current Ratio 6.51
PB Ratio 0.72
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2017
Total Current Assets $214,064,000
Total Current Liabilities $32,897,000
Long-Term Debt $0
Total Assets $331,908,000
Intangible Assets $2,415,000
Total Liabilities $34,772,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 46,705,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.89
Dec2016 -$2.73
Dec2015 -$3.43
Dec2014 $0.53
Dec2013 $0.89
Dec2012 $1.28
Dec2011 $0.69
Dec2010 $0.18
Dec2009 -$0.14
Dec2008 $1.32
Dec2007 $0.86
Dec2006 $0.83
Dec2005 $0.23
Dec2004 -$0.16
Dec2003 -$0.47
Dec2002 -$0.03
Dec2001 $0.65
Dec2000 -$0.07
Feb1999 -$0.01
Feb1998 $0.58
Feb1997 $0.44

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$1.58
Dec2016 -$1.51
Dec2015 -$0.61
Dec2014 $0.77
Dec2013 $0.79
Dec2012 $0.72
Dec2011 $0.48
Dec2010 $0.46
Dec2009 $0.60
Dec2008 $0.86
Dec2007 $0.50
Dec2006 $0.24
Dec2005 -$0.02
Dec2004 -$0.10
Dec2003 -$0.04
Dec2002 $0.19
Dec2001 $0.30

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG
Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
CARBO Ceramics Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRR
Concho Resources Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CXO
Murphy Oil Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $MUR
Suncor Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SU
CST Brands Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CST

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – July 2017 $SWN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Southwestern Energy Company (SWN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Southwestern Energy Company is an energy company engaged in natural gas and oil exploration, development and production. The Company operates through two segments: Exploration and Production (E&P) and Midstream Services. Its operations in northeast Pennsylvania are primarily focused on the unconventional natural gas reservoir known as the Marcellus Shale. Through its affiliated midstream subsidiaries, it is engaged in natural gas gathering activities in Arkansas and Louisiana. Its operations are principally focused on the development of unconventional natural gas reservoirs located in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Arkansas. As of December 31, 2016, its estimated proved natural gas and oil reserves were 5,253 billions of cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe). During the fiscal year ended December 31, 2016, it gathered approximately 600 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas in the Fayetteville Shale area, including 42 Bcf of natural gas from third-party operated wells.

SWN Chart

SWN data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of SWN – July 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,120,149,622 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.60 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -632.72% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -1.85 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.34 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.60 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 6.53 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$3.27
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$47.41
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$27.79
Market Implied Growth Rate -5.18%
Current Price $6.05
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Southwestern Energy Company does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the net current assets, and the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years, and the lack of dividends.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.71 in 2013 to an estimated $-3.27 for 2017.  This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Southwestern Energy Company revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $6.92.  The company does not pay a dividend.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -1.85, which was below the industry average of 63.11, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-8.35.

Southwestern Energy Company receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$8.35
Graham Number $6.92
PEmg -1.85
Current Ratio 1.60
PB Ratio 2.34
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2017
Total Current Assets $1,789,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,121,000,000
Long-Term Debt $4,364,000,000
Total Assets $7,196,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $5,918,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 494,495,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.15
Dec2016 -$6.32
Dec2015 -$12.25
Dec2014 $2.62
Dec2013 $2.00
Dec2012 -$2.03
Dec2011 $1.82
Dec2010 $1.73
Dec2009 -$0.10
Dec2008 $1.64
Dec2007 $0.64
Dec2006 $0.48
Dec2005 $0.48
Dec2004 $0.35
Dec2003 $0.18
Dec2002 $0.07
Dec2001 $0.17
Dec2000 -$0.23
Dec1999 $0.05
Dec1998 -$0.15
Dec1997 $0.10

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$3.27
Dec2016 -$4.72
Dec2015 -$3.13
Dec2014 $1.36
Dec2013 $0.71
Dec2012 $0.25
Dec2011 $1.31
Dec2010 $1.00
Dec2009 $0.63
Dec2008 $0.90
Dec2007 $0.49
Dec2006 $0.38
Dec2005 $0.31
Dec2004 $0.19
Dec2003 $0.08
Dec2002 $0.02
Dec2001 -$0.01

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Southwestern Energy Company Valuation – February 2016 Update $SWN
26 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 12/13/14
Southwestern Energy Company Annual Valuation – 2014 $SWN

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Apache Corp Valuation – April 2017 $APA
Anadarko Petroleum Co Valuation – April 2017 $APC
Cenovus Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CVE
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Valuation – March 2017 $COG
Chevron Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $CVX
CARBO Ceramics Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CRR
Concho Resources Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CXO
Murphy Oil Corporation Valuation – March 2017 $MUR
Suncor Energy Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:SU
CST Brands Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CST

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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