Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Linamar Corp (TSE:LNR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Linamar Corporation is a Canada-based diversified manufacturing company of engineered products powering vehicles, motion, work and lives. The Company operates through two segments: the Powertrain/Driveline and the Industrial. The segments are divided into four operating groups: Machining & Assembly, Light Metal Casting, Forging and Skyjack. The Company’s Machining and Assembly, Casting and Forging operating groups focus on precision metallic components, modules and systems for engine, transmission, driveline and body systems designed for global vehicle and industrial markets. The Company’s Skyjack operating group is noted for its mobile industrial equipment, notably its aerial work platforms and tele handlers. The Company provides core engine components, including cylinder blocks and heads, camshafts and connecting rods. For transmission, it builds differential assemblies, gear sets, shaft and shell assemblies, as well as clutch modules.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-LNR – March 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,930,918,802 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.69 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1200.58% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 8.70 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.53 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.69 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.40 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $6.93
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $266.91
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $100.52
MG Value based on 0% Growth $58.93
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.10%
Current Price $60.31
% of Intrinsic Value 22.60%

Linamar Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.22 in 2013 to an estimated $6.93 for 2017. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.1% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Linamar Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $83.15. The company pays a dividend of $0.4 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 8.7, which was below the industry average of 18.47, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-7.49.

Linamar Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$7.49
Graham Number $83.15
PEmg 8.70
Current Ratio 1.69
PB Ratio 1.53
Current Dividend $0.40
Dividend Yield 0.66%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2016
Total Current Assets $2,142,900,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,266,290,000
Long-Term Debt $1,228,035,000
Total Assets $5,227,170,000
Intangible Assets $736,378,000
Total Liabilities $2,636,909,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 65,925,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $7.82
Dec2016 $7.92
Dec2015 $6.63
Dec2014 $4.90
Dec2013 $3.52
Dec2012 $2.25
Dec2011 $1.56
Dec2010 $1.40
Dec2009 -$0.73
Dec2008 $1.05
Dec2007 $1.57
Dec2006 $1.40
Dec2005 $1.41
Dec2004 $1.31
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.81
Dec2001 $0.60
Dec2000 $1.12
Dec1999 $0.92
Dec1998 $1.17
Dec1997 $1.51

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.93
Dec2016 $6.01
Dec2015 $4.62
Dec2014 $3.32
Dec2013 $2.22
Dec2012 $1.42
Dec2011 $0.99
Dec2010 $0.78
Dec2009 $0.63
Dec2008 $1.32
Dec2007 $1.39
Dec2006 $1.23
Dec2005 $1.08
Dec2004 $0.91
Dec2003 $0.74
Dec2002 $0.85
Dec2001 $0.94

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None. This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

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Lithia Motors Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LAD
Delphi Automotive PLC Valuation – February 2017 $DLPH
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPS
Copart Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CPRT
Standard Motor Products Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SMP
Harman International Industries Inc Valuation – January 2017 $HAR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – February 2019

One popular approach to investing based on Benjamin Graham’s methods is to use the so-called “Graham Number.”  There are some important differences between the Graham Number and the Graham Formula, but using the Graham Number is definitely useful even if the investor only uses it as a screening tactic.

I’ve selected the best companies reviewed by ModernGraham which trade below their Graham Number.  The companies selected all are found suitable for the Defensive Investor and/or the Enterprising Investor, and have been valued as undervalued based on the ModernGraham valuation model.  The full list can be found in the latest issue of my monthly Stocks & Screens report; however, to cut down on the length of the post, I’ve selected the ten which trade furthest below their Graham Number.

Defensive Investors are defined as investors who need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk. Each company suitable for the Defensive Investor is also suitable for Enterprising Investors.

These companies have demonstrated strong financial positions through passing the rigorous requirements of the ModernGraham Investor and show potential for capital growth based on their current price in relation to intrinsic value.  As such, these graham number stocks may be a great investment if they prove to be suitable for your portfolio after your own additional research.

GameStop Corp. (GME)

GameStop Corp. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.03 in 2015 to an estimated $2.45 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.3% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into GameStop Corp. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $37.34. The company pays a dividend of $1.52 per share, for a yield of 10.5%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 5.91, which was below the industry average of 37.1, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-2.68.

GameStop Corp. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG)

Signet Jewelers Ltd. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.86 in 2014 to an estimated $6.07 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.22% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Signet Jewelers Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $61.99. The company pays a dividend of $1.04 per share, for a yield of 2.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 8.06, which was below the industry average of 30.22, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.32.

Signet Jewelers Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP)

Canfor Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.88 in 2014 to an estimated $2.18 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.34% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Canfor Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $32.18. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.17, which was below the industry average of 20.82, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-0.99.

Canfor Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)

CNO Financial Group Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.01 in 2014 to an estimated $1.56 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.89% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into CNO Financial Group Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $36.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.35 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.28, which was below the industry average of 36.08, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

CNO Financial Group Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.19 in 2014 to an estimated $4.19 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.57% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $34.59. The company pays a dividend of $0.38 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 5.36, which was below the industry average of 35.42, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.6.

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Prudential Financial Inc (PRU)

Prudential Financial Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.17 in 2014 to an estimated $12.54 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.45% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Prudential Financial Inc revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $185.87. The company pays a dividend of $3 per share, for a yield of 3.1%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.6, which was below the industry average of 30.02, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Prudential Financial Inc fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A-.  (See the full valuation)

Linamar Corporation (TSE:LNR)

Linamar Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.32 in 2014 to an estimated $8.11 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.63% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Linamar Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $99.21. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 0.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.25, which was below the industry average of 26.58, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-18.85.

Linamar Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Lincoln National Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.25 in 2014 to an estimated $7.01 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.58% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Lincoln National Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $117.31. The company pays a dividend of $0.87 per share, for a yield of 1.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.33, which was below the industry average of 30.63, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Lincoln National Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Unum Group (UNM)

Unum Group qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.71 in 2015 to an estimated $4.02 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.17% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Unum Group revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $68.83. The company pays a dividend of $0.98 per share, for a yield of 2.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 8.85, which was below the industry average of 32.96, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Unum Group fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

Invesco Ltd. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the company meets all of the requirements of both investor types, a rare accomplishment indicative of the company’s strong financial position . The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.89 in 2014 to an estimated $2.39 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.65% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Invesco Ltd. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $33.89. The company pays a dividend of $1.15 per share, for a yield of 6.7%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.21, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.

Invesco Ltd. fares extremely well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an A.  (See the full valuation)

Disclaimer: 

The author held a long position in IVZ but did not hold a position in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no specific intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours; however, the author does intend to make some trades in the next 72 hours and may select a company from this list.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice and all readers are encouraged to speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investing decisions.  Please also read our full disclaimer.

Linamar Corp Valuation – October 2018 $TSE-LNR

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Linamar Corporation is a Canada-based diversified manufacturing company of engineered products powering vehicles, motion, work and lives. The Company operates through two segments: the Powertrain/Driveline and the Industrial. The segments are divided into four operating groups: Machining & Assembly, Light Metal Casting, Forging and Skyjack. The Company’s Machining and Assembly, Casting and Forging operating groups focus on precision metallic components, modules and systems for engine, transmission, driveline and body systems designed for global vehicle and industrial markets. The Company’s Skyjack operating group is noted for its mobile industrial equipment, notably its aerial work platforms and tele handlers. The Company provides core engine components, including cylinder blocks and heads, camshafts and connecting rods. For transmission, it builds differential assemblies, gear sets, shaft and shell assemblies, as well as clutch modules.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSE-LNR- October 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $3,840,394,427 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.92 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1044.39% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 7.25 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.11 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.92 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 1.62 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $8.11
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $312.11
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $117.55
MG Value based on 0% Growth $68.91
Market Implied Growth Rate -0.63%
Current Price $58.76
% of Intrinsic Value 18.83%

Linamar Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.32 in 2014 to an estimated $8.11 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.63% annual earnings loss over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Linamar Corporation revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $99.21. The company pays a dividend of $0.48 per share, for a yield of 0.8% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 7.25, which was below the industry average of 26.58, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-18.85.

Linamar Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$18.85
Graham Number $99.21
PEmg 7.25
Current Ratio 1.92
PB Ratio 1.11
Current Dividend $0.48
Dividend Yield 0.82%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2018
Total Current Assets $3,291,655,000
Total Current Liabilities $1,715,388,000
Long-Term Debt $2,551,147,000
Total Assets $8,048,907,000
Intangible Assets $1,809,028,000
Total Liabilities $4,538,710,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 66,148,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $9.28
Dec2017 $8.32
Dec2016 $7.92
Dec2015 $6.63
Dec2014 $4.90
Dec2013 $3.52
Dec2012 $2.25
Dec2011 $1.56
Dec2010 $1.40
Dec2009 -$0.73
Dec2008 $1.05
Dec2007 $1.57
Dec2006 $1.40
Dec2005 $1.41
Dec2004 $1.31
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.81
Dec2001 $0.60
Dec2000 $1.12
Dec1999 $0.92
Dec1998 $1.17

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.11
Dec2017 $7.10
Dec2016 $6.01
Dec2015 $4.62
Dec2014 $3.32
Dec2013 $2.22
Dec2012 $1.42
Dec2011 $0.99
Dec2010 $0.78
Dec2009 $0.63
Dec2008 $1.32
Dec2007 $1.39
Dec2006 $1.23
Dec2005 $1.08
Dec2004 $0.91
Dec2003 $0.74
Dec2002 $0.85

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2017
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – July 2017
10 Low PE Stock Picks for the Enterprising Investor – April 2017
Best Stocks Below Their Graham Number – March 2017

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

AutoNation Inc Valuation – September 2018 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SUP
Lydall Inc Valuation – August 2018 $LDL
Lithia Motors Inc Valuation – August 2018 $LAD
Carlisle Companies Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CSL
Delphi Technologies PLC Valuation – August 2018 $DLPH
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CPS
Copart Inc Valuation – August 2018 $CPRT
Standard Motor Products Inc Valuation – August 2018 $SMP
Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – June 2018 $HOG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

AutoZone Inc Valuation – February 2018 $AZO

Company Profile (obtained from Marketwatch): AutoZone, Inc. engages in the provision of retail and a distribution of automotive replacement parts and accessories. It operates through Auto Parts Locations, and Other segments. The Auto Parts Locations segment is provides automotive parts and accessories through the company’s stores in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Brazil. The Other segment includes ALLDATA, which produces, sells, and maintains diagnostic and repair information software used in the automotive repair industry. The company was founded by Joseph R. Hyde, III on July 4, 1979 and is headquartered in Memphis, TN.

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AZO – February 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $18,182,097,324 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 169.66% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.60 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 -13.93 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.98 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -41.71 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $40.04
MG Growth Estimate 7.90%
MG Value $973.47
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $580.64
MG Value based on 0% Growth $340.37
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.05%
Current Price $664.72
% of Intrinsic Value 68.28%

AutoZone, Inc. does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of dividends. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $26.22 in 2014 to an estimated $40.04 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.05% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into AutoZone, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.6, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-211.89.

AutoZone, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$211.89
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg 16.60
Current Ratio 0.98
PB Ratio -13.93
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 1/1/2018
Total Current Assets $4,826,307,000
Total Current Liabilities $4,947,228,000
Long-Term Debt $5,043,541,000
Total Assets $9,403,719,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $10,734,266,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 27,882,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $39.73
Aug2017 $44.07
Aug2016 $40.70
Aug2015 $36.03
Aug2014 $31.57
Aug2013 $27.79
Aug2012 $23.48
Aug2011 $19.47
Aug2010 $14.97
Aug2009 $11.73
Aug2008 $10.04
Aug2007 $8.53
Aug2006 $7.50
Aug2005 $7.18
Aug2004 $6.56
Aug2003 $5.34
Aug2002 $4.00
Aug2001 $1.54
Aug2000 $2.00
Aug1999 $1.63
Aug1998 $1.48

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $40.04
Aug2017 $38.81
Aug2016 $34.76
Aug2015 $30.42
Aug2014 $26.22
Aug2013 $22.20
Aug2012 $18.25
Aug2011 $14.74
Aug2010 $11.76
Aug2009 $9.77
Aug2008 $8.52
Aug2007 $7.51
Aug2006 $6.71
Aug2005 $5.85
Aug2004 $4.75
Aug2003 $3.53
Aug2002 $2.46

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Autozone Inc Valuation – June 2016 $AZO
AutoZone Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $AZO

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Thor Industries Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $THO
Titan International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TWI
Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – August 2017 $HOG
Wabash National Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $WNC
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP
Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF
Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Thor Industries Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $THO

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Thor Industries Inc (THO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Thor Industries, Inc. manufactures a range of recreational vehicles (RVs) in the United States and sells those vehicles primarily in the United States and Canada. The Company’s segments include towable recreational vehicles, which consists of the operations of Airstream, Inc. (Airstream) (towable); Heartland Recreational Vehicles, LLC (Heartland) (including Bison Coach, LLC (Bison), Cruiser RV, LLC (CRV) and DRV, LLC (DRV)); Jayco, Corp. (Jayco) (including Jayco towable, Starcraft and Highland Ridge), Keystone RV Company (Keystone) (including CrossRoads and Dutchmen) and K.Z., Inc. (KZ) (including Livin’ Lite RV, Inc. (Livin’ Lite)); motorized recreational vehicles, which consists of the operations of Airstream (motorized), Jayco (including Jayco motorized and Entegra Coach) and Thor Motor Coach, Inc. (Thor Motor Coach), and Other, which includes the operations of its subsidiary, Postle Operating, LLC (Postle).

THO Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of THO – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $5,714,511,987 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.63 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 284.65% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 21.96 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.93 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.63 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.60 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.99
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $192.29
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $72.42
MG Value based on 0% Growth $42.45
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.73%
Current Price $109.70
% of Intrinsic Value 57.05%

Thor Industries, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.24 in 2013 to an estimated $4.99 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 6.73% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Thor Industries, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $61.27.  The company pays a dividend of $1.2 per share, for a yield of 1.1%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 21.96, which was above the industry average of 18.18.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $2.71.

Thor Industries, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $2.71
Graham Number $61.27
PEmg 21.96
Current Ratio 1.63
PB Ratio 3.93
Current Dividend $1.20
Dividend Yield 1.09%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 4/1/2017
Total Current Assets $1,271,365,000
Total Current Liabilities $778,447,000
Long-Term Debt $295,000,000
Total Assets $2,600,076,000
Intangible Assets $836,374,000
Total Liabilities $1,128,118,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 52,773,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $6.92
Jul2016 $4.88
Jul2015 $3.74
Jul2014 $3.35
Jul2013 $2.88
Jul2012 $2.26
Jul2011 $1.92
Jul2010 $2.07
Jul2009 $0.31
Jul2008 $1.66
Jul2007 $2.41
Jul2006 $2.87
Jul2005 $2.09
Jul2004 $1.81
Jul2003 $1.37
Jul2002 $0.94
Jul2001 $0.56
Jul2000 $0.74
Jul1999 $0.63
Jul1998 $0.40
Jul1997 $0.33

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.99
Jul2016 $3.83
Jul2015 $3.15
Jul2014 $2.73
Jul2013 $2.24
Jul2012 $1.83
Jul2011 $1.64
Jul2010 $1.62
Jul2009 $1.55
Jul2008 $2.17
Jul2007 $2.32
Jul2006 $2.12
Jul2005 $1.62
Jul2004 $1.28
Jul2003 $0.96
Jul2002 $0.72
Jul2001 $0.58

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – August 2017 $HOG
Wabash National Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $WNC
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP
Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF
Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR
AutoNation Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Titan International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $TWI

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Titan International Inc (TWI) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Titan International, Inc. is a wheel, tire, and undercarriage industrial manufacturer and supplier. The Company’s segments are agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer. The Company produces a range of products to meet the specifications of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and aftermarket customers in the agricultural, earthmoving/construction, and consumer markets. Its agricultural products include rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components manufactured for use on various agricultural equipment. Its earthmoving/construction products include rims, wheels, tires, and undercarriage systems and components for various types of off-the-road (OTR) earthmoving, mining, military, construction, and forestry equipment. The Company’s consumer products include, but are not limited to, bias truck tires in Latin America and light truck tires in Russia, as well as products for all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), turf, and golf cart applications.

TWI Chart

TWI data by YCharts

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

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ModernGraham Valuation of TWI – September 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $513,649,677 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.23 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 462.00% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 -9.24 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.44 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.23 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.96 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg -$0.93
MG Growth Estimate -4.25%
MG Value $0.00
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade D
MG Value based on 3% Growth -$13.51
MG Value based on 0% Growth -$7.92
Market Implied Growth Rate -8.87%
Current Price $8.61
% of Intrinsic Value N/A

Titan International Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last five years.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $0.93 in 2013 to an estimated $-0.93 for 2017.  This level of negative earnings does not support a positive valuation.As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Titan International Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $0.  The company pays a dividend of $0.02 per share, for a yield of 0.2%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was -9.24, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-3.05.

Titan International Inc scores quite poorly in the ModernGraham grading system, with an overall grade of D.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.05
Graham Number $0.00
PEmg -9.24
Current Ratio 2.23
PB Ratio 1.44
Current Dividend $0.02
Dividend Yield 0.23%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $775,064,000
Total Current Liabilities $347,664,000
Long-Term Debt $408,789,000
Total Assets $1,311,951,000
Intangible Assets $16,243,000
Total Liabilities $956,739,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 59,557,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.26
Dec2016 -$0.81
Dec2015 -$1.74
Dec2014 -$2.43
Dec2013 $0.64
Dec2012 $2.05
Dec2011 $1.18
Dec2010 -$0.17
Dec2009 -$0.71
Dec2008 $0.38
Dec2007 -$0.23
Dec2006 $0.21
Dec2005 $0.48
Dec2004 $0.49
Dec2003 -$1.40
Dec2002 -$1.38
Dec2001 -$1.34
Dec2000 $0.18
Dec1999 -$0.44
Dec1998 $0.30
Dec1997 $0.88

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate -$0.93
Dec2016 -$1.00
Dec2015 -$0.75
Dec2014 -$0.08
Dec2013 $0.93
Dec2012 $0.89
Dec2011 $0.24
Dec2010 -$0.19
Dec2009 -$0.12
Dec2008 $0.20
Dec2007 $0.05
Dec2006 $0.02
Dec2005 -$0.26
Dec2004 -$0.65
Dec2003 -$1.11
Dec2002 -$0.82
Dec2001 -$0.39

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – August 2017 $HOG
Wabash National Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $WNC
Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP
Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF
Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR
AutoNation Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUP

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – August 2017 $HOG

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the groups of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) and Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS). The Company operates in two segments: the Motorcycles & Related Products (Motorcycles) and the Financial Services. The Motorcycles segment consists of HDMC, which designs, manufactures and sells at wholesale on-road Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, general merchandise and related services. The Company manufactures and sells at wholesale cruiser and touring motorcycles. The Financial Services segment consists of HDFS, which provides wholesale and retail financing and insurance-related programs to the Harley-Davidson dealers and their retail customers. HDFS is engaged in the business of financing and servicing wholesale inventory receivables and retail consumer loans for the purchase of Harley-Davidson motorcycles.

HOG Chart

HOG data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

[/level-free]
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of HOG – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $8,183,423,170 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.27 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 249.84% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 13.02 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 4.11 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.27 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 5.26 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $3.69
MG Growth Estimate 8.08%
MG Value $90.87
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $53.44
MG Value based on 0% Growth $31.33
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.26%
Current Price $47.97
% of Intrinsic Value 52.79%

Harley-Davidson Inc does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.4 in 2013 to an estimated $3.69 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.26% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Harley-Davidson Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $29.61.  The company pays a dividend of $1.4 per share, for a yield of 2.9%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.02, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-23.94.

Harley-Davidson Inc receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$23.94
Graham Number $29.61
PEmg 13.02
Current Ratio 1.27
PB Ratio 4.11
Current Dividend $1.40
Dividend Yield 2.92%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $4,244,602,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,354,761,000
Long-Term Debt $4,678,350,000
Total Assets $10,487,771,000
Intangible Assets $54,630,000
Total Liabilities $8,441,604,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 175,324,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.57
Dec2016 $3.83
Dec2015 $3.69
Dec2014 $3.88
Dec2013 $3.28
Dec2012 $2.72
Dec2011 $2.55
Dec2010 $0.62
Dec2009 -$0.24
Dec2008 $2.79
Dec2007 $3.74
Dec2006 $3.93
Dec2005 $3.41
Dec2004 $3.00
Dec2003 $2.50
Dec2002 $1.90
Dec2001 $1.43
Dec2000 $1.13
Dec1999 $0.86
Dec1998 $0.69
Dec1997 $0.57

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.69
Dec2016 $3.66
Dec2015 $3.45
Dec2014 $3.09
Dec2013 $2.40
Dec2012 $1.86
Dec2011 $1.59
Dec2010 $1.46
Dec2009 $2.16
Dec2008 $3.37
Dec2007 $3.54
Dec2006 $3.28
Dec2005 $2.79
Dec2004 $2.31
Dec2003 $1.83
Dec2002 $1.40
Dec2001 $1.08

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

19 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 1/9/16
Harley-Davidson Inc Valuation – January 2016 Update $HOG
The Best Companies of the Auto Industry – October 2015
5 Undervalued Companies for Enterprising Investors Near 52 Week Lows – October 2015
13 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 10/3/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF
Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR
AutoNation Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUP
Canadian Tire Corp Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CTC.A
LKQ Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $LKQ
Lithia Motors Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LAD

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Wabash National Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $WNC

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Wabash National Corp (WNC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Wabash National Corporation is a diversified industrial manufacturer and producer of semi-trailers and liquid transportation systems. The Company’s segments include Commercial Trailer Products; Diversified Products, and Corporate and Eliminations segment. The Company designs, manufactures and markets a range of products, including dry freight and refrigerated trailers, platform trailers, bulk tank trailers, dry and refrigerated truck bodies, truck-mounted tanks, intermodal equipment, aircraft refueling equipment, structural composite panels and products, trailer aerodynamic solutions, and specialty food grade and pharmaceutical equipment. The Company’s Commercial Trailer Products segment manufactures standard and customized van and platform trailers, truck bodies and other transportation related equipment. The Company’s Diversified Products segment consists of business units, including Tank Trailer; Aviation & Truck Equipment; Process Systems, and Composites.

WNC Chart

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ModernGraham Valuation of WNC – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,234,849,518 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.12 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -143.35% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 14.45 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.76 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.12 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.68 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.43
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $55.18
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $20.78
MG Value based on 0% Growth $12.18
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.97%
Current Price $20.71
% of Intrinsic Value 37.53%

Wabash National Corporation is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0 in 2013 to an estimated $1.43 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.97% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Wabash National Corporation revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $16.12.  The company pays a dividend of $0.06 per share, for a yield of 0.3%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.45, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.97.

Wabash National Corporation performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.97
Graham Number $16.12
PEmg 14.45
Current Ratio 2.12
PB Ratio 2.76
Current Dividend $0.06
Dividend Yield 0.29%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 1

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $520,085,000
Total Current Liabilities $245,199,000
Long-Term Debt $186,098,000
Total Assets $932,411,000
Intangible Assets $234,177,000
Total Liabilities $458,961,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 63,207,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.47
Dec2016 $1.82
Dec2015 $1.50
Dec2014 $0.85
Dec2013 $0.67
Dec2012 $1.53
Dec2011 $0.22
Dec2010 -$3.36
Dec2009 -$3.48
Dec2008 -$4.21
Dec2007 $0.52
Dec2006 $0.30
Dec2005 $3.06
Dec2004 $1.80
Dec2003 -$2.26
Dec2002 -$2.43
Dec2001 -$10.17
Dec2000 -$0.38
Dec1999 $1.59
Dec1998 $0.99
Dec1997 $0.74

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.43
Dec2016 $1.37
Dec2015 $1.08
Dec2014 $0.57
Dec2013 $0.00
Dec2012 -$0.85
Dec2011 -$2.05
Dec2010 -$2.80
Dec2009 -$1.93
Dec2008 -$0.68
Dec2007 $0.95
Dec2006 $0.81
Dec2005 $0.05
Dec2004 -$1.87
Dec2003 -$3.38
Dec2002 -$3.32
Dec2001 -$2.99

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF
Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR
AutoNation Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUP
Canadian Tire Corp Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CTC.A
LKQ Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $LKQ
Lithia Motors Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LAD

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – August 2017 $AAP

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive aftermarket parts in North America, serving do-it-for-me (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY), customers. The Company’s stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. It serves through various channels ranging from traditional brick and mortar store locations to self-serving e-commerce sites. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 5,062 total stores and 127 branches primarily under the trade names Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. As of December 31, 2016, its Advance Auto Parts operations consisted of three geographic divisions, which included the operations of the stores operating under the Advance Auto Parts, Carquest and Autopart International trade names.

AAP Chart

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Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of AAP – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $7,076,036,443 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.48 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 91.48% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 16.24 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.27 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.48 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.60 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.90
MG Growth Estimate 3.05%
MG Value $86.12
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $85.54
MG Value based on 0% Growth $50.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.87%
Current Price $95.80
% of Intrinsic Value 111.24%

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the  low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the low current ratio.  As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.9 in 2013 to an estimated $5.9 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 3.87% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Advance Auto Parts, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $67.69.  The company pays a dividend of $0.24 per share, for a yield of 0.3%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 16.24, which was below the industry average of 18.18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $0.23.

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.23
Graham Number $67.69
PEmg 16.24
Current Ratio 1.48
PB Ratio 2.27
Current Dividend $0.24
Dividend Yield 0.25%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $5,326,215,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,598,327,000
Long-Term Debt $1,043,690,000
Total Assets $8,437,413,000
Intangible Assets $1,612,795,000
Total Liabilities $5,309,136,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 74,093,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.15
Dec2016 $6.20
Dec2015 $6.40
Dec2014 $6.71
Dec2013 $5.32
Dec2012 $5.22
Dec2011 $5.11
Dec2010 $3.95
Dec2009 $2.83
Dec2008 $2.49
Dec2007 $2.28
Dec2006 $2.16
Dec2005 $2.13
Dec2004 $1.66
Dec2003 $1.11
Dec2002 $0.60
Dec2001 $0.13
Dec2000 $0.23
Dec1999 -$0.30
Dec1998 -$0.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.90
Dec2016 $6.17
Dec2015 $6.02
Dec2014 $5.64
Dec2013 $4.90
Dec2012 $4.44
Dec2011 $3.81
Dec2010 $3.02
Dec2009 $2.49
Dec2008 $2.26
Dec2007 $2.06
Dec2006 $1.81
Dec2005 $1.46
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.57
Dec2002 $0.24
Dec2001 $0.04

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Advance Auto Parts Inc Valuation – November 2016 $AAP
Advance Auto Parts Inc. Analysis – Initial Coverage $AAP

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF
Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR
AutoNation Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUP
Canadian Tire Corp Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CTC.A
LKQ Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $LKQ
Lithia Motors Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LAD

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Fox Factory Holding Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $FOXF

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Fox Factory Holding Corp (FOXF) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Fox Factory Holding Corp. is engaged in the manufacturing, sale and service of ride dynamics products. The Company’s products fall into two categories: bikes, and powered vehicles, including side-by-sides, on-road vehicles with off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, and motorcycles. The Company’s brands include FOX, FOX RACING SHOX and RACE FACE. The Company’s products include 34 Factory Series FLOAT FIT4, which provides external adjustability with its fourth-generation FOX Isolated Technology and closed-cartridge damper, and includes a self-adjusting negative chamber air spring; X2 technology, utilized in its Factory Series FLOAT and DH rear shocks; PODIUM Internal Bypass, and X2 technology utilized in its 2.5 PODIUM shocks for side-by-sides that feature high and low speed rebound adjustment, high and low speed compression adjustment, and a dual-rate spring for the rear shocks.

FOXF Chart

FOXF data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

Learn More About Premium Membership

[/level-free]
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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of FOXF – August 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $1,411,077,023 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 2.23 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Fail
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 785.29% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 37.88 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 6.81 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 2.23 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 0.53 Pass
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Fail
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.00
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $38.32
Opinion Fairly Valued
MG Grade C
MG Value based on 3% Growth $14.43
MG Value based on 0% Growth $8.46
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.69%
Current Price $37.70
% of Intrinsic Value 98.38%

Fox Factory Holding Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  small size, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.47 in 2013 to an estimated $1 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 14.69% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Fox Factory Holding Corp revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $12.61.  The company does not pay a dividend.  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 37.88, which was above the industry average of 18.18.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $1.38.

Fox Factory Holding Corp receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.38
Graham Number $12.61
PEmg 37.88
Current Ratio 2.23
PB Ratio 6.81
Current Dividend $0.00
Dividend Yield 0.00%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 0

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2017
Total Current Assets $207,958,000
Total Current Liabilities $93,176,000
Long-Term Debt $60,774,000
Total Assets $368,729,000
Intangible Assets $114,359,000
Total Liabilities $154,435,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 38,725,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.41
Dec2016 $0.94
Dec2015 $0.66
Dec2014 $0.73
Dec2013 $0.68
Dec2012 $0.44
Dec2011 $0.42
Dec2010 $0.34

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.00
Dec2016 $0.76
Dec2015 $0.64
Dec2014 $0.59
Dec2013 $0.47
Dec2012 $0.33
Dec2011 $0.23
Dec2010 $0.11

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

None.  This is the first time ModernGraham has covered the company.

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Monro Muffler Brake Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $MNRO
Group 1 Automotive Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $GPI
Dana Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAN
Linamar Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:LNR
AutoNation Inc Valuation – March 2017 $AN
Superior Industries International Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $SUP
Canadian Tire Corp Limited Valuation – Initial Coverage $TSE:CTC.A
LKQ Corporation Valuation – Initial Coverage $LKQ
Lithia Motors Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $LAD
Delphi Automotive PLC Valuation – February 2017 $DLPH

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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