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Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – March 2019 #TSN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Tyson Foods, Inc., incorporated on January 31, 1986, is a food company, which is engaged in offering chicken, beef and pork, as well as prepared foods. The Company offers food products under Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Sara Lee, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells and State Fair brands. The Company operates through four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. It operates a vertically integrated chicken production process, which consists of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (Cobb), the Company is engaged in supplying poultry breeding stock across the world. It produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSN – March 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $20,499,693,600 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 0.85 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 225.35% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.02 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 1.92 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 0.85 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 -7.15 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.78
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $222.38
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B
MG Value based on 3% Growth $83.75
MG Value based on 0% Growth $49.10
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.76%
Current Price $69.43
% of Intrinsic Value 31.22%

Tyson Foods, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.38 in 2015 to an estimated $5.78 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.76% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tyson Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $65.79. The company pays a dividend of $1.13 per share, for a yield of 1.6% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.02, which was below the industry average of 26.89, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-34.9.

Tyson Foods, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$34.90
Graham Number $65.79
PEmg 12.02
Current Ratio 0.85
PB Ratio 1.92
Current Dividend $1.13
Dividend Yield 1.62%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 6

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $6,301,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $7,430,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,075,000,000
Total Assets $32,335,000,000
Intangible Assets $18,255,000,000
Total Liabilities $19,076,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 366,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.50
Sep2018 $8.19
Sep2017 $4.79
Sep2016 $4.53
Sep2015 $2.95
Sep2014 $2.37
Sep2013 $2.12
Sep2012 $1.58
Sep2011 $1.97
Sep2010 $2.13
Sep2009 -$1.49
Sep2008 $0.24
Sep2007 $0.75
Sep2006 -$0.58
Sep2005 $1.04
Sep2004 $1.13
Sep2003 $0.96
Sep2002 $1.08
Sep2001 $0.40
Sep2000 $0.67
Sep1999 $1.00

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.78
Sep2018 $5.46
Sep2017 $3.85
Sep2016 $3.16
Sep2015 $2.38
Sep2014 $2.08
Sep2013 $1.71
Sep2012 $1.30
Sep2011 $1.01
Sep2010 $0.42
Sep2009 -$0.29
Sep2008 $0.38
Sep2007 $0.52
Sep2006 $0.51
Sep2005 $1.01
Sep2004 $0.95
Sep2003 $0.84

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – January 2019
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – January 2019
Most Undervalued Stocks of the S&P 500 – August 2018
10 Undervalued Stocks for the Enterprising Investor – August 2018
5 Companies for Enterprising Investors Near 52 Week Lows – July 2018

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Mondelez International Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MDLZ
Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – March 2019 #HRL
JM Smucker Co Valuation – March 2019 #SJM
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Valuation – March 2019 #LW
Kraft Heinz Co Valuation – March 2019 #KHC
Sysco Corp Valuation – March 2019 $SYY
General Mills Inc Valuation – February 2019 $GIS
McCormick & Co Valuation – February 2019 $MKC
Archer-Daniels Midland Co Valuation – February 2019 $ADM
Conagra Brands Inc Valuation – February 2019 $CAG

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – June 2018 $TSN

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): Tyson Foods, Inc., incorporated on January 31, 1986, is a food company, which is engaged in offering chicken, beef and pork, as well as prepared foods. The Company offers food products under Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Sara Lee, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells and State Fair brands. The Company operates through four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. It operates a vertically integrated chicken production process, which consists of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (Cobb), the Company is engaged in supplying poultry breeding stock across the world. It produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products.

TSN Chart

TSN data by YCharts

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSN – June 2018

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $25,711,019,537 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.56 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 291.15% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 12.65 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.13 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.56 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 4.12 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $5.52
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $212.57
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B+
MG Value based on 3% Growth $80.06
MG Value based on 0% Growth $46.93
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.07%
Current Price $69.83
% of Intrinsic Value 32.85%

Tyson Foods, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.13 in 2014 to an estimated $5.52 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.07% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tyson Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $73.4. The company pays a dividend of $0.9 per share, for a yield of 1.3% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.65, which was below the industry average of 24.35, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.88.

Tyson Foods, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.88
Graham Number $73.40
PEmg 12.65
Current Ratio 1.56
PB Ratio 2.13
Current Dividend $0.90
Dividend Yield 1.29%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 5

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2018
Total Current Assets $5,990,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,838,000,000
Long-Term Debt $8,872,000,000
Total Assets $28,091,000,000
Intangible Assets $15,635,000,000
Total Liabilities $15,935,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 370,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $8.36
Sep2017 $4.79
Sep2016 $4.53
Sep2015 $2.95
Sep2014 $2.37
Sep2013 $1.84
Sep2012 $1.58
Sep2011 $1.97
Sep2010 $4.04
Sep2009 -$1.49
Sep2008 $0.24
Sep2007 $0.75
Sep2006 -$0.58
Sep2005 $1.04
Sep2004 $1.13
Sep2003 $0.96
Sep2002 $1.08
Sep2001 $0.40
Sep2000 $0.67
Sep1999 $1.00
Sep1998 $0.11

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.52
Sep2017 $3.83
Sep2016 $3.12
Sep2015 $2.33
Sep2014 $2.13
Sep2013 $1.87
Sep2012 $1.68
Sep2011 $1.52
Sep2010 $1.06
Sep2009 -$0.29
Sep2008 $0.38
Sep2007 $0.52
Sep2006 $0.51
Sep2005 $1.01
Sep2004 $0.95
Sep2003 $0.84
Sep2002 $0.74

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

10 Best Stocks for Value Investors This Week – 7/22/17
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – July 2017
Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – July 2017 $TSN
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – February 2017
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – January 2017

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – June 2018 $HRL
J M Smucker Co Valuation – May 2018 $SJM
Kraft Heinz Co Valuation – May 2018 $KHC
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc Valuation – May 2018 $DPS
Sysco Corp Valuation – May 2018 $SYY
General Mills Inc Valuation – May 2018 $GIS
Archer-Daniels Midland Co Valuation – May 2018 $ADM
Conagra Brands Inc Valuation – May 2018 $CAG
McCormick & Co Inc Valuation – May 2018 $MKC
Monster Beverage Corp Valuation – April 2018 $MNST

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – July 2017 $TSN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – March 2017.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc. is a food company, which is engaged in offering chicken, beef and pork, as well as prepared foods. The Company offers food products under Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Sara Lee, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells and State Fair brands. The Company operates through four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. It operates a vertically integrated chicken production process, which consists of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (Cobb), the Company is engaged in supplying poultry breeding stock across the world. It produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products. Its products are marketed and sold by its sales staff to grocery retailers, grocery wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores and military commissaries, among others.

TSN Chart

TSN data by YCharts

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To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

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Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSN – July 2017

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $22,170,641,849 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.62 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end 1430.12% Pass
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 15.37 Pass
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 2.32 Pass
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.62 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 3.09 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $4.00
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $153.82
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $57.93
MG Value based on 0% Growth $33.96
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.43%
Current Price $61.39
% of Intrinsic Value 39.91%

Tyson Foods, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the  low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.7 in 2013 to an estimated $4 for 2017.  This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.43% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tyson Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $55.42.  The company pays a dividend of $0.6 per share, for a yield of 1%  Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 15.37, which was below the industry average of 34.94, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry.  Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-21.1.

Tyson Foods, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$21.10
Graham Number $55.42
PEmg 15.37
Current Ratio 1.62
PB Ratio 2.32
Current Dividend $0.60
Dividend Yield 0.98%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

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Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 3/1/2017
Total Current Assets $5,017,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $3,106,000,000
Long-Term Debt $5,905,000,000
Total Assets $22,596,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,705,000,000
Total Liabilities $12,825,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 370,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $5.22
Sep2016 $4.53
Sep2015 $2.95
Sep2014 $2.37
Sep2013 $2.12
Sep2012 $1.58
Sep2011 $1.97
Sep2010 $2.06
Sep2009 -$1.47
Sep2008 $0.24
Sep2007 $0.75
Sep2006 -$0.58
Sep2005 $1.04
Sep2004 $1.13
Sep2003 $0.96
Sep2002 $1.08
Sep2001 $0.40
Sep2000 $0.67
Sep1999 $1.00
Sep1998 $0.11
Sep1997 $0.85

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.00
Sep2016 $3.16
Sep2015 $2.38
Sep2014 $2.07
Sep2013 $1.70
Sep2012 $1.28
Sep2011 $0.99
Sep2010 $0.40
Sep2009 -$0.28
Sep2008 $0.38
Sep2007 $0.52
Sep2006 $0.51
Sep2005 $1.01
Sep2004 $0.95
Sep2003 $0.84
Sep2002 $0.74
Sep2001 $0.58

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – February 2017
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – January 2017
10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – January 2017
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – December 2016
5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – September 2016

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Darling Ingredients Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $DAR
Mondelez International Inc Valuation – March 2017 $MDLZ
Calavo Growers Inc Valuation – Initial Coverage $CVGW
Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – March 2017 $HRL
Lancaster Colony Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $LANC
J M Smucker Co Valuation – February 2017 $SJM
Kraft Heinz Co Valuation – Initial Coverage $KHC
Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc Valuation – January 2017 $DPS
J&J Snack Foods Corp Valuation – Initial Coverage $JJSF
Sysco Corporation Valuation – January 2017 $SYY

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – August 2016 $TSN

Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 10 Stocks for Using A Benjamin Graham Value Investing Strategy – August 2016.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a stock analysis showing a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc. is a food company. The Company is engaged in offering chicken, beef and pork, as well as prepared foods, including bacon, breakfast sausage, turkey, lunchmeat, hot dogs, pizza crusts and toppings, tortillas and desserts. The Company offers food products under Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Sara Lee, Ball Park, Wright, Aidells and State Fair brands. It operates through four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. It operates a vertically integrated chicken production process, which consists of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through its subsidiary, Cobb-Vantress, Inc., the Company is engaged in supplying poultry breeding stock across the world. It produces a range of fresh, frozen and refrigerated food products. Its foreign markets include Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.

TSN Chart

TSN data by YCharts

[level-free]
To read the details of this valuation, you must be logged in as a premium member. If you are not a premium member, please consider becoming one.

Premium members can view a full ModernGraham valuation of the company and have access to download a PDF version of the valuation for easy reference. Recent valuations of the components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are available for free members, including this one of Microsoft Corporation.  In addition, here is a post detailing what can be found within each individual company’s valuation.

[/level-free]
[not-level-free]

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of TSN – August 2016

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $27,845,048,112 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.80 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Fail
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -2156.25% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 24.01 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 3.01 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.80 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 2.81 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Pass

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

TSN value chart August 2016

EPSmg $3.17
MG Growth Estimate 15.00%
MG Value $121.87
Opinion Undervalued
MG Grade B-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $45.90
MG Value based on 0% Growth $26.91
Market Implied Growth Rate 7.76%
Current Price $76.00
% of Intrinsic Value 62.36%

Tyson Foods, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.28 in 2012 to an estimated $3.17 for 2016. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 7.76% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tyson Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $52.23. The company pays a dividend of $0.55 per share, for a yield of 0.7% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 24.01, which was below the industry average of 30.19, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-19.94.

Tyson Foods, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

TSN charts August 2016

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$19.94
Graham Number $52.23
PEmg 24.01
Current Ratio 1.80
PB Ratio 3.01
Current Dividend $0.55
Dividend Yield 0.72%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 4

[/not-level-free]

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 6/1/2016
Total Current Assets $4,881,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $2,713,000,000
Long-Term Debt $6,099,000,000
Total Assets $22,410,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,773,000,000
Total Liabilities $12,619,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 388,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $4.55
Sep2015 $2.95
Sep2014 $2.37
Sep2013 $2.12
Sep2012 $1.58
Sep2011 $1.97
Sep2010 $2.06
Sep2009 -$1.47
Sep2008 $0.24
Sep2007 $0.75
Sep2006 -$0.58
Sep2005 $1.04
Sep2004 $1.13
Sep2003 $0.96
Sep2002 $1.08
Sep2001 $0.40
Sep2000 $0.67
Sep1999 $1.00
Sep1998 $0.11
Sep1997 $0.85
Sep1996 $0.40

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

Next Fiscal Year Estimate $3.17
Sep2015 $2.38
Sep2014 $2.07
Sep2013 $1.70
Sep2012 $1.28
Sep2011 $0.99
Sep2010 $0.40
Sep2009 -$0.28
Sep2008 $0.38
Sep2007 $0.52
Sep2006 $0.51
Sep2005 $1.01
Sep2004 $0.95
Sep2003 $0.84
Sep2002 $0.74
Sep2001 $0.58
Sep2000 $0.65

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

Tyson Foods Analysis – July 2015 Update $TSN
5 Undervalued Companies with a Low Beta – June 2015
The Best Companies of the Food Processing Industry – June 2015
5 Undervalued Companies to Research with a Low Beta – May 2015
27 Companies in the Spotlight This Week – 4/4/15

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

J.M. Smucker Co Valuation – August 2016 $SJM
General Mills Inc Valuation – August 2016 $GIS
Archer Daniels Midland Co – August 2016 $ADM
Coca-Cola Co Valuation – July 2016 $KO
Monster Beverage Corp Valuation – July 2016 $MNST
Campbell Soup Company Valuation – July 2016 $CPB
Kellogg Company Valuation – July 2016 $K
Hershey Co Valuation – July 2016 $HSY
PepsiCo Inc Valuation – July 2016 $PEP
Mead Johnson Nutrition Valuation – June 2016 $MJN

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

Tyson Foods Analysis – July 2015 Update $TSN

220px-Tyson_Foods_logo.svgTyson Foods (TSN) has several traits which may attract investors, including strong earnings growth over the last few years. In addition, many qualitative factors make the company interesting to numerous investors. For example, Seeking Alpha contributor Value Wagon recently wrote that Tyson Food’s strong market position in both chicken and non-chicken markets makes it a good value for the industry. This is a great qualitative issue to consider, but one must first look at a quantitative analysis of the company.

In fact, Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, taught that the most important aspect to consider is whether the company is trading at a discount relative to its intrinsic value. It is through a thorough fundamental analysis that the investor is able to determine a potential investment’s merits. Here’s an updated look at how the company fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

This model is inspired by the teachings of Benjamin Graham and considers numerous metrics intended to help the investor reduce risk levels. The first part of the analysis is to determine whether the company is suitable for the very conservative Defensive Investor or the less conservative Enterprising Investor who is willing to spend a greater amount of time conducting further research.

In addition, Graham strongly suggested that investors avoid speculation in order to remove the subjective elements of emotion. This is best achieved by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another. By using theModernGraham method, one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.

TSN Chart

TSN data by YCharts

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Defensive Investor – Must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – Market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – Current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – Positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – Has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – Earnings per share has increased by at least one-third over the last 10 years, using three-year averages at the beginning and end of the period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg (price over normalized earnings) ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – Must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests tobe suitable for a Defensive Investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – Current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt-to-Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – Positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – Currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – EPSmg greater than that 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data

Recent Price $42.95
MG Value $96.04
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $36.17
Value Based on 0% Growth $21.20
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.36%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.49
PEmg 17.22
Current Ratio 1.40
PB Ratio 1.91

Balance Sheet – March 2015

Current Assets $5,668,000,000
Current Liabilities $4,051,000,000
Total Debt $6,438,000,000
Total Assets $23,526,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,912,000,000
Total Liabilities $14,171,000,000
Outstanding Shares 415,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $3.29
2014 $2.37
2013 $2.12
2012 $1.58
2011 $1.97
2010 $2.06
2009 -$1.49
2008 $0.24
2007 $0.75
2006 -$0.58
2005 $1.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.49
2014 $2.07
2013 $1.70
2012 $1.28
2011 $0.99
2010 $0.40

Dividend History

TSN Dividend Chart

TSN Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion

Tyson Foods does not qualify for the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio along with the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets. Therefore, all value investors should only proceed with the next stage of the analysis, which is a determination of an estimate of intrinsic value, with a speculative attitude in mind.

From a valuation side of things, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.99 in 2011 to an estimated $2.49 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of 4.36% over the next 7-10 years.

The company’s recent earnings history shows an average annual growth in EPSmg of around 30%; however, the ModernGraham valuation model reduces such a rate to a more conservative figure, assuming some slowdown will occur. Even so, the model returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling well above the current price, indicating Tyson Foods is undervalued at the present time.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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Tyson Foods Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $TSN

220px-Tyson_Foods_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – March 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc., is a food production company. The Company’s operations are conducted in five segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork, Prepared Foods and International. Chicken, includes domestic operations related of raising and processing live chickens into fresh, frozen and value-added chicken products, and sales of allied products. Beef, includes operations related to processing live fed cattle and fabricating dressed beef carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts and case-ready products. Pork, includes operations related to processing live market hogs and fabricating pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal cuts and case-ready products. Prepared Foods, includes operations related to manufacturing and marketing frozen and refrigerated food products and logistics operations of products through the supply chain. International, includes foreign operations related to raising and processing live chickens into fresh, frozen and value-added chicken products in across countries.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $38.16
MG Value $96.94
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $36.51
Value Based on 0% Growth $21.40
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.33%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$20.91
PEmg 15.15
Current Ratio 1.50
PB Ratio 1.74

Balance Sheet – December 2014

Current Assets $5,938,000,000
Current Liabilities $3,954,000,000
Total Debt $6,931,000,000
Total Assets $23,758,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,946,000,000
Total Liabilities $14,635,000,000
Outstanding Shares 416,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $3.36
2014 $2.37
2013 $2.12
2012 $1.58
2011 $1.97
2010 $2.06
2009 -$1.49
2008 $0.24
2007 $0.75
2006 -$0.58
2005 $1.04

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $2.52
2014 $2.07
2013 $1.70
2012 $1.28
2011 $0.99
2010 $0.40

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Tyson Foods Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio and the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, while the Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.99 in 2011 to an estimated $2.52 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 3.33% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Tyson Foods Inc. Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $TSN

220px-Tyson_Foods_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc. is a food production company. The Company produces, distributes and markets chicken, beef, pork, prepared foods and related allied products. It operates in four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. The Company operates an integrated poultry production process. The Company’s integrated operations consist of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (Cobb), the Company supplies poultry breeding stock. The Company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricate dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case ready beef and pork and fully cooked meats. In August 2014, the Company merged with The Hillshire Brands Company.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $40.22
MG Value $79.75
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $30.03
Value Based on 0% Growth $17.61
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.46%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$22.62
PEmg 19.42
Current Ratio 1.64
PB Ratio 1.77

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $6,221,000,000
Current Liabilities $3,797,000,000
Total Debt $7,535,000,000
Total Assets $23,956,000,000
Intangible Assets $11,982,000,000
Total Liabilities $15,066,000,000
Outstanding Shares 391,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 $2.37
2013 $2.12
2012 $1.58
2011 $1.97
2010 $2.06
2009 -$1.49
2008 $0.24
2007 $0.75
2006 -$0.58
2005 $1.04
2004 $1.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 $2.07
2013 $1.70
2012 $1.28
2011 $0.99
2010 $0.40
2009 -$0.29

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Tyson Foods Inc. qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio, and the insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the high level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.40 in 2010 to $2.07 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 5.46% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Tyson Foods Inc. Quarterly Stock Valuation – September 2014 $TSN

220px-Tyson_Foods_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – September 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc. is a food production company. The Company produces, distributes and markets chicken, beef, pork, prepared foods and related allied products. It operates in four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. The Company operates an integrated poultry production process. The Company’s integrated operations consist of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (Cobb), the Company supplies poultry breeding stock. The Company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricate dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case ready beef and pork and fully cooked meats. In August 2014, the Company merged with The Hillshire Brands Company.
TSN Chart

TSN data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $38.53
MG Value $87.22
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $32.85
Value Based on 0% Growth $19.26
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.25%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.43
PEmg 17.01
Current Ratio 2.11
PB Ratio 2.03

Balance Sheet – 6/28/2014

Current Assets $5,513,000,000
Current Liabilities $2,612,000,000
Total Debt $1,784,000,000
Total Assets $12,055,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,076,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,361,000,000
Outstanding Shares 352,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $2.80
2013 $2.31
2012 $1.58
2011 $1.97
2010 $2.06
2009 -$1.47
2008 $0.24
2007 $0.75
2006 -$0.56
2005 $0.99
2004 $1.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.27
2013 $1.76
2012 $1.28
2011 $0.99
2010 $0.41
2009 -$0.28

Dividend History
TSN Dividend Chart

TSN Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Tyson Foods Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.41 in 2010 to an estimated $2.27 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.25% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Coca-Cola Co Valuation – April 2019 #KO

Company Profile (excerpt from Reuters): The Coca-Cola Company, incorporated on September 5, 1919, is a beverage company. The Company owns or licenses and markets non-alcoholic beverage brands, primarily sparkling beverages and a range of still beverages, such as waters, flavored waters and enhanced waters, juices and juice drinks, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, sports drinks, dairy and energy drinks. The Company’s segments include Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America; North America; Asia Pacific; Bottling Investments, and Corporate. The Company owns and markets a range of non-alcoholic sparkling beverage brands, including Coca-Cola, Diet Coke, Fanta and Sprite. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned or licensed and marketed over 500 non-alcoholic beverage brands. The Company markets, manufactures and sells beverage concentrates, which are referred to as beverage bases, and syrups, including fountain syrups (concentrate business or concentrate operations), and finished sparkling and still beverages (finished product business or finished product operations). The Company makes its beverage products available to consumers across the world through its network of Company-owned or -controlled bottling and distribution operations, as well as bottling partners, distributors, wholesalers and retailers.

 

Downloadable PDF version of this valuation:

ModernGraham Valuation of KO – April 2019

Stage 1: Is this company suitable for the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor?

What kind of Intelligent Investor are you?

Defensive Investor; must pass 6 out of the following 7 tests.
1. Adequate Size of the Enterprise Market Cap > $2Bil $198,666,736,888 Pass
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 2 1.05 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 10 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Dividend Payments for 10 years prior Pass
5. Earnings Growth Increase of 33% in EPS in past 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end -39.21% Fail
6. Moderate PEmg Ratio PEmg < 20 31.87 Fail
7. Moderate Price to Assets PB Ratio < 2.5 OR PB*PEmg < 50 10.50 Fail
Enterprising Investor; must pass 4 out of the following 5 tests, or be suitable for the Defensive Investor.
1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Current Ratio > 1.5 1.05 Fail
2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition Debt to NCA < 1.1 17.98 Fail
3. Earnings Stability Positive EPS for 5 years prior Pass
4. Dividend Record Currently Pays Dividend Pass
5. Earnings Growth EPSmg greater than 5 years ago Fail

 

Stage 2: Determination of Intrinsic Value

EPSmg $1.46
MG Growth Estimate -2.50%
MG Value $5.11
Opinion Overvalued
MG Grade C-
MG Value based on 3% Growth $21.14
MG Value based on 0% Growth $12.39
Market Implied Growth Rate 11.69%
Current Price $46.47
% of Intrinsic Value 909.65%

The Coca-Cola Co does not satisfy the requirements of either the Enterprising Investor or the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns regarding the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time or proceed cautiously with a speculative attitude.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) decline from $1.75 in 2015 to an estimated $1.46 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.69% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into The Coca-Cola Co revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $13.61. The company pays a dividend of $1.56 per share, for a yield of 3.4%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 31.87, which was above the industry average of 27.84. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-7.79.

The Coca-Cola Co receives an average overall rating in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a C-.

Stage 3: Information for Further Research

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$7.79
Graham Number $13.61
PEmg 31.87
Current Ratio 1.05
PB Ratio 10.50
Current Dividend $1.56
Dividend Yield 3.36%
Number of Consecutive Years of Dividend Growth 20

Useful Links:

ModernGraham tagged articles Morningstar
Google Finance MSN Money
Yahoo Finance Seeking Alpha
GuruFocus SEC Filings

Most Recent Balance Sheet Figures

Balance Sheet Information 12/1/2018
Total Current Assets $30,634,000,000
Total Current Liabilities $29,223,000,000
Long-Term Debt $25,364,000,000
Total Assets $83,216,000,000
Intangible Assets $17,270,000,000
Total Liabilities $64,158,000,000
Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) 4,305,000,000

Earnings Per Share History

EPS History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $2.07
Dec2018 $1.50
Dec2017 $0.29
Dec2016 $1.49
Dec2015 $1.67
Dec2014 $1.60
Dec2013 $1.90
Dec2012 $1.97
Dec2011 $1.85
Dec2010 $2.53
Dec2009 $1.47
Dec2008 $1.25
Dec2007 $1.29
Dec2006 $1.08
Dec2005 $1.02
Dec2004 $1.00
Dec2003 $0.89
Dec2002 $0.62
Dec2001 $0.80
Dec2000 $0.44
Dec1999 $0.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham History

EPSmg History
Next Fiscal Year Estimate $1.46
Dec2018 $1.20
Dec2017 $1.17
Dec2016 $1.65
Dec2015 $1.75
Dec2014 $1.85
Dec2013 $1.96
Dec2012 $1.93
Dec2011 $1.84
Dec2010 $1.73
Dec2009 $1.29
Dec2008 $1.18
Dec2007 $1.11
Dec2006 $0.99
Dec2005 $0.92
Dec2004 $0.83
Dec2003 $0.71

Recommended Reading:

Other ModernGraham posts about the company

5 Overvalued Dow Components – January 2019
Coca-Cola Co Valuation – November 2018 $KO
10 Most Overvalued Stocks of the S&P 500 – July 2018
5 Overvalued Dow Components – June 2018
5 Overvalued Dow Components – February 2018

Other ModernGraham posts about related companies

Tyson Foods Inc Valuation – March 2019 #TSN
Mondelez International Inc Valuation – March 2019 #MDLZ
Hormel Foods Corp Valuation – March 2019 #HRL
JM Smucker Co Valuation – March 2019 #SJM
Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Valuation – March 2019 #LW
Kraft Heinz Co Valuation – March 2019 #KHC
Sysco Corp Valuation – March 2019 $SYY
General Mills Inc Valuation – February 2019 $GIS
McCormick & Co Valuation – February 2019 $MKC
Archer-Daniels Midland Co Valuation – February 2019 $ADM

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a Low Beta – January 2019

imageThere are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected five undervalued companies with a low beta reviewed by ModernGraham.

A company’s beta indicates the correlation at which its price moves in relation to the market.  A beta less than 1 indicates a company is less volatile than the market.

Each company has been determined to be suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor according to the ModernGraham approach. Defensive Investors are defined as investors who need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk.

With a low beta, Mr. Market may not hit these companies as harshly in a downturn, so be sure to check them out in depth!

 

H & R Block Inc (HRB)

H & R Block Inc qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the high PB ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.55 in 2015 to an estimated $2.05 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.95% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into H & R Block Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $8.61. The company pays a dividend of $0.96 per share, for a yield of 3.8%, putting it among the best dividend paying stocks today. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.39, which was below the industry average of 18, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-6.68.

H & R Block Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

LGI Homes Inc (LGIH)

LGI Homes Inc is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the small size, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, and the poor dividend history. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the lack of dividends. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.74 in 2014 to an estimated $4.43 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.26% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into LGI Homes Inc revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $55.97. The company does not pay a dividend. Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 13.01, which was below the industry average of 25.8, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $21.67.

LGI Homes Inc performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.  (See the full valuation)

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

Tyson Foods, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, insufficient earnings stability over the last ten years. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.13 in 2014 to an estimated $5.52 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.07% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Tyson Foods, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $73.4. The company pays a dividend of $0.9 per share, for a yield of 1.3% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 12.65, which was below the industry average of 24.35, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-26.88.

Tyson Foods, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B+.  (See the full valuation)

Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A (STZ)

Constellation Brands, Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, poor dividend history, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Fairly Valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.88 in 2015 to an estimated $8.7 for 2019. This level of demonstrated earnings growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8.5% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Constellation Brands, Inc. revealed the company was trading above its Graham Number of $94.52. The company pays a dividend of $2.08 per share, for a yield of 0.9% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 25.5, which was above the industry average of 24.61. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-45.22.

Constellation Brands, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring a B-.  (See the full valuation)

Aaron’s, Inc. (AAN)

Aaron’s, Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is only initially concerned with the low current ratio. The Enterprising Investor is only concerned with the level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach should feel comfortable proceeding with the analysis.

As for a valuation, the company appears to be Undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.52 in 2014 to an estimated $2.87 for 2018. This level of demonstrated earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.84% annual earnings growth over the next 7-10 years. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on the Benjamin Graham value investing formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

At the time of valuation, further research into Aaron’s, Inc. revealed the company was trading below its Graham Number of $42.55. The company pays a dividend of $0.11 per share, for a yield of 0.3% Its PEmg (price over earnings per share – ModernGraham) was 14.17, which was below the industry average of 37.1, which by some methods of valuation makes it one of the most undervalued stocks in its industry. Finally, the company was trading above its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) of $-7.75.

Aaron’s, Inc. performs fairly well in the ModernGraham grading system, scoring an B.  (See the full valuation)

 

Disclaimer:

The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  See my current holdings here.  This article is not investment advice; any reader should speak to a registered investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions.  ModernGraham is not affiliated with the company in any manner.  Please be sure to review our detailed disclaimer.

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