Stocks

ModernGraham Valuation: Realty Income Corp (O)

moneyCompany Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Realty Income Corporation (Realty Income) is an equity real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is engaged in acquiring and owning freestanding retail and other properties that generate rental revenue under long-term lease agreements (primarily 10 to 20 years). The Company has in-house acquisition, leasing, legal, credit research, real estate research, portfolio management and capital markets. At December 31, 2011, it owned a diversified portfolio of 2,634 properties with an occupancy rate of 96.7%, or 2,547 properties leased and only 87 properties available for lease. It leased properties to 136 different retail and other commercial enterprises doing business in 38 separate industries. It properties are located in 49 states, with over 27.3 million square feet of leasable space, and with an average leasable space per property of approximately 10,400 square feet. In January 2013, it acquired American Realty Capital Trust.

Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)

Key Data:

MG Value $11.86
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $15.32
Value Based on 0% Growth $8.98
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.56%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$24.59
PEmg 35.62
Current Ratio 0.39
PB Ratio 1.47

Balance Sheet – 9/30/2013 

Current Assets $42,100,000
Current Liabilities $108,700,000
Total Debt $3,738,400,000
Total Assets $9,880,900,000
Intangible Assets $971,600,000
Total Liabilities $4,870,700,000
Outstanding Shares 196,330,000

Earnings Per Share

2013 (estimate) $1.40
2012 $0.76
2011 $1.01
2010 $0.92
2009 $0.94
2008 $0.91
2007 $1.03
2006 $1.05
2005 $1.00
2004 $0.90
2003 $0.98

Earnings Per Share – Modern Graham 

2013 (estimate) $1.06
2012 $0.89
2011 $0.96
2010 $0.95
2009 $0.97
2008 $0.98

Conclusion:

Like many REITs, Realty Income Corp does not fare well in the ModernGraham system.  The company does not pass enough requirements for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  For the Defensive Investor, the fatal flaws are that its current ratio is far too low, it has not sufficiently grown earnings over the historical period, and it is trading at a high PEmg ratio.  For the Enterprising Investor, the high level of debt relative to the current assets causes the first two tests to fail.  Either investor type should proceed carefully with further research as the company is considered to be speculative due to the level of risk inherent in its current financials.  Maybe the risk ends up being worth it for some individuals, but keep in mind that following either the Defensive Investor or Enterprising Investor approach requires accepting minimal levels of risk as one of the 7 Key Tips to Value Investing is to never lose money.  From a valuation standpoint, the company’s low growth in EPSmg, from $0.98 in 2008 to an estimated $1.06 for 2013, results in a poor valuation.  The market is implying a growth rate of 13.56%, which is well above the growth seen in EPSmg over the historical period, and would indicate the company is currently overvalued.

What do you think?  Do you agree that Realty Income Corporation is overvalued?  Is the company not suitable for Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Realty Income Corporation (O) at the time of publication and had no intention of entering into a position within the next 72 hours.

Photo Credit:  Andrew Magill

2 thoughts on “ModernGraham Valuation: Realty Income Corp (O)

    1. Thanks for the link. I’m not sure why the data I viewed when I wrote this didn’t include the correct information, but I’ve correct the article now. The end result is the same.

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