ModernGraham Valuation: Comcast Corporation (CMCSA)
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Comcast Corporation (Comcast) is a provider of entertainment, information and communications products and services. The Company operates in five segments: Cable Communications provides video, high-speed Internet and voice services (cable services) to residential and business customers; Cable Networks consists primarily of its national cable television networks, its regional sports and news networks, its international cable networks, its cable television production studio, and its related digital media properties; Broadcast Television consists primarily of its NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks, its NBC and Telemundo owned local television stations, its broadcast television production operations, and its related digital media properties; Filmed Entertainment consists of the operations of Universal Pictures., and Theme Parks consists primarily of its Universal theme parks in Orlando and Hollywood. Effective March 19, 2013, it acquired a 49% interest in NBCUniversal Media LLC.
Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)
Key Data:
| MG Value | $76.38 |
| MG Opinion | Undervalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $28.77 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $16.86 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 9.24% |
| NCAV | -$35.74 |
| PEmg | 26.99 |
| Current Ratio | 0.72 |
| PB Ratio | 2.82 |
Balance Sheet – 9/30/2013Â
| Current Assets | $13,407,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $18,666,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $44,188,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $156,595,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $103,777,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $106,877,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 2,615,430,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2013 (estimate) | $2.46 |
| 2012 | $2.28 |
| 2011 | $1.50 |
| 2010 | $1.29 |
| 2009 | $1.26 |
| 2008 | $0.86 |
| 2007 | $0.83 |
| 2006 | $0.70 |
| 2005 | $0.28 |
| 2004 | $0.29 |
| 2003 | -$0.07 |
| 2002 | -$0.28 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGrahamÂ
| 2013 (estimate) | $1.98 |
| 2012 | $1.64 |
| 2011 | $1.27 |
| 2010 | $1.10 |
| 2009 | $0.93 |
| 2008 | $0.70 |
Conclusion:
Comcast Corporation appears to present a very good value opportunity, but may present too much risk for investors seeking to follow Benjamin Graham’s value investing strategies. Â The company is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Â For the Defensive Investor, the company’s current ratio is too low, the company does not have a long enough recent history of paying dividends, and the company is trading at high PEmg and PB ratios. Â For the Enterprising Investor, the company holds too much debt relative to its current assets. Â As a result, the company presents a little more risk than we like to see, and investors may wish to seek other opportunities, perhaps beginning with a review of ModernGraham’s analysis of Verizon Communications (VZ). Â As for the valuation, the company has grown EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.70 in 2008 to an estimated $1.98 for 2013. Â This is a solid level of growth that outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 9.24%, and the company would therefore seem to be undervalued.
What do you think?  Do you agree that Comcast Corporation undervalued?  What would be your assessment?  Is the company not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
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Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Photo Credit: Â Andrew Magill
