Aflac Inc. (AFL) Quarterly Valuation

500px-Aflac.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Aflac Inc. fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Aflac Incorporated (Aflac) is a general business holding company and acts as a management company, overseeing the operations of its subsidiaries by providing management services. Its business is supplemental health and life insurance, through its subsidiary, American Family Life Assurance Company of Columbus, which operates in the United States and as a branch in Japan. Aflac’s insurance business consists of two segments: Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. Aflac Japan sells voluntary supplemental insurance products, including cancer plans, general medical indemnity plans, medical/sickness riders, care plans, living benefit life plans, ordinary life insurance plans and annuities. Aflac U.S. sells voluntary supplemental insurance products including loss-of-income products and products designed to protect individuals from depletion of assets (hospital indemnity, fixed-benefit dental, vision care, accident, cancer, critical illness/ critical care, and hospital intensive care plans).

AFL Chart

AFL data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 6/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $65.13
MG Value $191.03
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $81.07
Value Based on 0% Growth $47.53
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.57%
PEmg 11.65
PB Ratio 2.05

Balance Sheet – 12/31/2013

Total Debt $4,897,000,000
Total Assets $121,307,000,000
Total Liabilities $106,687,000,000
Outstanding Shares 459,410,000

Earnings Per Share

2013 $6.76
2012 $6.11
2011 $4.18
2010 $4.95
2009 $3.19
2008 $2.62
2007 $3.31
2006 $2.96
2005 $2.92
2004 $2.52
2003 $1.52

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2013 $5.59
2012 $4.74
2011 $3.92
2010 $3.66
2009 $3.01
2008 $2.91

Dividend History

AFL Dividend Chart

AFL Dividend data by YCharts


Aflac is suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor, having passed all of the requirements of each investor type.  As a result, value investors seeking to follow the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.  Such research may include a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Unum Group (UNM) or 5 Low PEmg Companies for the Defensive Investor.  From a valuation perspective, the company appears strong, having grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.01 in 2009 to $5.59 for 2013.  This is a level of demonstrated historical growth that significantly outpaces the market’s current implied estimate of only 1.57% earnings growth.  The ModernGraham valuation model accordingly returns an estimate of intrinsic value that is well above a margin of safety when compared to the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Aflac Inc. (AFL)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Aflac Inc. (AFL) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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