Target Corporation (TGT) Quarterly Valuation – March 2014

200px-Target_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Target Corporation fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Target Corporation sells a range of assortment of general merchandise and food in its stores. The Company’s general merchandise and CityTarget stores offer a food assortment on a smaller scale and its SuperTarget stores offer a line of food items comparable to traditional supermarkets. The Company operates in three segments: U.S. Retail, U.S. Credit Card and Canadian. The Company’s U.S. Retail Segment includes all of its United States merchandising operations. The Company’s U.S. Credit Card Segment offers credit to qualified guests through its credit cards: the Target Credit Card and the Target Visa. Its Canadian Segment includes costs incurred in the United States and Canada related to its Canadian retail market entry. As of February 2, 2013, the Company had 1,778 stores in 49 states and the District of Columbia. It also owns three distribution centers in Canada, with a total of 3,963 thousand square feet.

TGT Chart

TGT data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $59.67
MG Value $58.16
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $55.65
Value Based on 0% Growth $32.62
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.52%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$26.46
PEmg 15.55
Current Ratio 0.91
PB Ratio 2.33

Balance Sheet – 2/1/2014

Current Assets $11,573,000,000
Current Liabilities $12,777,000,000
Total Debt $12,622,000,000
Total Assets $44,553,000,000
Intangible Assets $357,000,000
Total Liabilities $28,322,000,000
Outstanding Shares 632,930,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 $3.07
2013 $4.52
2012 $4.28
2011 $4.00
2010 $3.30
2009 $2.86
2008 $3.35
2007 $3.21
2006 $2.71
2005 $2.07
2004 $2.01

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 $3.84
2013 $4.08
2012 $3.76
2011 $3.45
2010 $3.14
2009 $2.99

Dividend History

TGT Dividend Chart

TGT Dividend data by YCharts


Target Corporation is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only requirement that isn’t met is the current ratio, while the Enterprising Investor is satisfied by default since the company is suitable for the more conservative Defensive Investor.  As a result, value investors seeking to follow the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should keep the company on a watch list and feel very comfortable proceeding with further research, including a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Walmart Stores Inc. (WMT) as well as ModernGraham’s valuation of Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).  From a valuation perspective, the company appears to be fairly valued currently after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.14 in 2010 to $3.84.  While this is not a strong level of growth, it does support the market’s implied estimate of 3.52% earnings growth, leading the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls within a safety margin in relation to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Target Corporation (TGT)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Target Corporation (TGT) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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