Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company. Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how National Oilwell Varco fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â National Oilwell Varco, Inc. is a provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry. The Company operates through three segments. Its Rig Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services complete systems for the drilling, completion, and servicing of oil and gas wells. Its Petroleum Services & Supplies segment provides a variety of consumable goods and services used to drill, complete, remediate and workover oil and gas wells and service drill pipe, tubing, casing, flowlines and other oilfield tubular goods. Its Distribution & Transmission segment provides maintenance, repair and operating supplies and spare parts to drill site and production locations worldwide. In July 2012, its subsidiary, NOV Distribution Services ULC, acquired CE Franklin Ltd. In February 2013, National Oilwell Varco Inc acquired Robbins & Myers Inc.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$73.56|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$43.12|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||3.05%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$8.97|
Balance Sheet – 12/31/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
National Oilwell Varco is suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Â The only requirement for either investor type that the company did not pass was the ten year dividend history as required by the Defensive Investor. Â As a result, value investors seeking to follow the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfrotable proceeding with further research into the company and its competitors, through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Baker Hughes (BHI) and ModernGraham’s valuation of Schlumberger (SLB). Â From a valuation perspective, the company appears to be undervalued presently, having grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.55 in 2009 to $5.07 for 2013. Â This demonstrated level of growth surpasses the market’s implied estimate of 3.05% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is well above the market price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on National Oilwell Varco (NOV)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
If you like our valuations, why not check outÂ ModernGraham Stocks & Screens? Â It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in National Oilwell Varco (NOV) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.