D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) Quarterly Valuation – April 2014
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how D.R. Horton Inc. fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): D.R. Horton, Inc. is the homebuilding companies in the United States. The Company constructs and sells homes through its operating divisions in 27 states and 78 metropolitan markets of the United States, primarily under the name of D.R. Horton, America’s Builder. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2013 (fiscal 2013), the Company closed 24,155 homes. Through its financial services operations, the Company provides mortgages financing and title agency services to homebuyers in many of its homebuilding markets. DHI Mortgage, its 100% owned subsidiary, provides mortgage financing services primarily to the Company’s homebuilding customers and generally sells the mortgages it originates and the related servicing rights to third-party purchasers. In August 2012, it acquired the homebuilding operations of Breland Homes. The Company’s financial reporting segments consist of six homebuilding segments and a financial services segment.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $21.84 |
| MG Value | $56.57 |
| MG Opinion | Undervalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $21.31 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $12.49 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 3.18% |
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | $10.03 |
| PEmg | 14.86 |
| Current Ratio | 6.50 |
| PB Ratio | 1.68 |
Balance Sheet – 12/31/2013
| Current Assets | $7,975,800,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $1,226,400,000 |
| Total Debt | $3,461,900,000 |
| Total Assets | $8,927,200,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $41,200,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $4,730,400,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 323,490,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2014 (estimate) | $1.55 |
| 2013 | $1.27 |
| 2012 | $2.66 |
| 2011 | $0.23 |
| 2010 | $0.77 |
| 2009 | -$1.72 |
| 2008 | -$8.34 |
| 2007 | -$2.27 |
| 2006 | $3.90 |
| 2005 | $4.62 |
| 2004 | $3.08 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2014 (estimate) | $1.47 |
| 2013 | $1.17 |
| 2012 | $0.32 |
| 2011 | -$1.33 |
| 2010 | -$1.91 |
| 2009 | -$2.42 |
Dividend History
DHI Dividend data by YCharts
Conclusion:
D.R. Horton is an interesting company for the Enterprising Investor, but is not suitable for the Defensive Investor.  The company has shown insufficient earnings stability or growth over the ten year historical period for the Defensive Investor.  The company company does pass all of the Enterprising Investor’s requirements.  As a result, Enterprising Investors should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company as well as other opportunities through a review of 5 Low PEmg Companies for the Enterprising Investor and 5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be significantly undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from -$1.91 in 2010 to an estimated $1.47 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.18% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is well above the market price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) or any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
