Food Processing Stocks

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) Quarterly Valuation – April 2014

Archer_Daniels_Midland_(logo).svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing 5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Archer-Daniels-Midland-Company is engaged in the processing of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities. The Company manufactures protein meal, vegetable oil, corn sweeteners, flour, biodiesel, ethanol, and other value-added food and feed ingredients. The Company also has a grain elevator and transportation network to procure, store, clean, and transport agricultural commodities, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley, as well as processed agricultural commodities. Its operations are classified into three business segments: Oilseeds Processing, Corn Processing, and Agricultural Services. It also formed a joint venture with Princes Limited in Poland to procure, package, and sell edible oils in Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Austria. Effective February 11, 2014, Archer Daniels Midland Co acquired an undisclosed minority stake in Rennovia Inc.

ADM Chart

ADM data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – FAIL

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $45.04
MG Value $12.16
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $34.26
Value Based on 0% Growth $20.08
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.28%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $7.49
PEmg 19.06
Current Ratio 1.82
PB Ratio 1.47

Balance Sheet – 12/31/2013

Current Assets $28,530,000,000
Current Liabilities $15,658,000,000
Total Debt $5,347,000,000
Total Assets $43,752,000,000
Intangible Assets $759,000,000
Total Liabilities $23,596,000,000
Outstanding Shares 659,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2013 $2.02
2012 $1.84
2011 $3.11
2010 $3.00
2009 $2.65
2008 $2.79
2007 $3.30
2006 $2.00
2005 $1.59
2004 $0.76

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2013 $2.36
2012 $2.58
2011 $2.96
2010 $2.84
2009 $2.66
2008 $2.47

Dividend History

ADM Dividend Chart

ADM Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Archer Daniels Midland is suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  For the Defensive Investor, the only concern is the low current ratio, and the Enterprising Investor’s concern is the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparison to other opportunities through a review of 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) drop from $2.66 in 2009 to $2.36 for 2013.  This lack of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.28% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls well below the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) or any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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