Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewingÂ 5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how Ensco PLC (ESV) fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Ensco plc (Ensco) is a provider of offshore contract drilling services to the international oil and gas industry. As of December 31, 2011, its rig fleet included seven drillships, 13 dynamically positioned semisubmersible rigs, seven moored semisubmersible rigs, 49 jackup rigs and one barge rig. Its customers include national and international oil companies. On May 31, 2011, the Company completed a merger transaction (the Merger) with Pride International, Inc., (Pride), ENSCO International Incorporated, an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary and predecessor of Ensco plc (Ensco Delaware), and ENSCO Ventures LLC, an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Ensco plc (Merger Sub). Pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, Merger Sub merged with and into Pride, with Pride as the surviving entity and an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Ensco plc. In February 2014, Ensco PLC sold its two remaining cold-stacked jackup rigs.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – FAIL
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$71.20|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$41.74|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||0.80%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$21.99|
Balance Sheet – 12/31/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Ensco is suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Â The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the low current ratio, but the company passes all of the other requirements. Â The Enterprising Investor has some concerns, but since the company is suitable for Defensive Investors it is by default also suitable for Enterprising Investors. Â As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparison to other opportunities through a review of 5 Outstanding Dow Components while keeping in mind the 7 Key Tips to Value Investing. Â From a valuation perspective, the company does not fare very well after seeing a drop in EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.13 in 2009 to $4.91 for 2013. Â This lack of demonstrated earnings growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 0.8% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is well below the market price. Â
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Ensco PLC (ESV)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
If you like our valuations, why not check outÂ ModernGraham Stocks & Screens? Â It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Ensco PLC (ESV) or any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.