Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing 5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor Near 52 Week Lows. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how Celgene Corp (CELG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Celgene Corporation is a global biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases. It is engaged in the research and development, which is designed to bring new therapies to market, and is engaged in research in several scientific areas that may deliver therapies, focusing areas, such as intracellular signaling pathways in cancer and immune cells, immunomodulation in cancer and autoimmune diseases, and therapeutic application of cell therapies. Its primary commercial stage products include REVLIMID, VIDAZA, THALOMID, ABRAXANE and ISTODAX. Additional sources of revenue include a licensing agreement with Novartis, which entitles it to royalties on FOCALIN XR and the entire RITALIN family of drugs, the sale of services through its Cellular Therapeutics subsidiary and other miscellaneous licensing agreements. In March 2012, it acquired Avila Therapeutics.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$60.04|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$35.20|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||13.48%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$3.19|
Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Celgene Corp is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, lack of dividends, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor’s only concern is the lack of dividend payments. As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities through a review of 5 Low PEmg Companies for the Defensive Investor and 5 Undervalued Companies for Enterprising Investors. From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.46 in 2010 to an estimated $4.14 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth is in line with the market’s implied estimate of 13.48% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is within a margin of safety relative to the market price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Celgene Corp (CELG)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens? It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in Celgene Corp (CELG) or in any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.