Facebook Inc. (FB) Quarterly Valuation – May 2014
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Highest Dividend Yields Among Undervalued Defensive Companies. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Facebook Inc. (FB) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Facebook, Inc. (Facebook) is engaged in building products to create utility for users, developers, and advertisers. People use Facebook to stay connected with their friends and family, to discover what is going on in the world around them, and to share and express what matters to them to the people they care about. Developers can use the Facebook Platform to build applications and Websites that integrate with Facebook to reach its global network of users and to build personalized and social products. It offers advertisers a combination of reach, relevance, social context and engagement. In October 2013, Facebook Inc acquired Onavo Inc. Effective January 8, 2014, Facebook Inc acquired Little Eye Software Labs Pvt Ltd. Effective January 13, 2014, Facebook Inc acquired Branch Media Inc. In April 2014, Facebook Inc acquired ProtoGeo Oy, a Helsinki-based developer of software for smartphones.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $58.02 |
| MG Value | $21.30 |
| MG Opinion | Overvalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $8.02 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $4.70 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 48.18% |
| NCAV | $4.59 |
| PEmg | 104.86 |
| Current Ratio | 13.56 |
| PB Ratio | 8.89 |
Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014
| Current Assets | $14,060,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $1,037,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $191,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $19,028,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $1,682,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $2,291,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 2,564,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2014 (estimate) | $1.01 |
| 2013 | $0.59 |
| 2012 | $0.01 |
| 2011 | $0.29 |
| 2010 | $0.28 |
| 2009 | $0.10 |
| 2008 | -$0.06 |
| 2007 | $0.00 |
| 2006 | $0.00 |
| 2005 | $0.00 |
| 2004 | $0.00 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2014 (estimate) | $0.55 |
| 2013 | $0.30 |
| 2012 | $0.15 |
| 2011 | $0.18 |
| 2010 | $0.11 |
| 2009 | $0.02 |
Conclusion:
Facebook is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor, as the Defensive Investor is concerned with the lack of dividends, short operating history, and high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor’s only concern at this point is the lack of dividends.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and its competitors by exploring the ModernGraham Valuation Index.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.11 in 2010 to an estimated $0.55 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth falls below the market’s implied estimate of 48.18% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is well below the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Facebook Inc. (FB)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
If you like our valuations, why not check out ModernGraham Stocks & Screens?  It’s a great way to review the valuations while screening for things like low PE ratio, undervalued companies, etc.!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Facebook Inc. (FB) or in any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
