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Genuine Parts Company May 2014 Quarterly Valuation $GPC

logoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Lowest PEmg Companies for Enterprising Investors.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Genuine Parts Company (GPC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Genuine Parts Company is a service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials. The Company operates in four: Automotive Parts Group, Industrial Parts Group, Office Products Group and Electrical/Electronic Materials Group. The Automotive Parts Group distributes automotive parts and accessory items. In addition to over 427,000 available part numbers, the Company offers inventory, cataloging, marketing, training and other programs in the automotive aftermarket. The Industrial Parts Group is operated as Motion Industries, Inc. (Motion), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company. During the year ended December 31, 2012, the Company’s business were conducted throughout the United States, in Canada and in Mexico from approximately 2,000 locations. On February 1, 2012, the Company acquired Light Fabrications Inc.

GPC Chart

GPC data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $85.81
MG Value $96.03
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $60.78
Value Based on 0% Growth $35.63
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.98%
NCAV $4.99
PEmg 20.47
Current Ratio 1.56
PB Ratio 3.87

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $5,346,400,000
Current Liabilities $3,422,700,000
Total Debt $500,000,000
Total Assets $7,982,400,000
Intangible Assets $1,409,800,000
Total Liabilities $4,580,600,000
Outstanding Shares 153,600,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $4.54
2013 $4.40
2012 $4.14
2011 $3.58
2010 $3.00
2009 $2.50
2008 $2.92
2007 $2.98
2006 $2.76
2005 $2.50
2004 $2.25

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $4.19
2013 $3.85
2012 $3.46
2011 $3.08
2010 $2.83
2009 $2.74

Dividend HistoryGPC Dividend Chart

GPC Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Genuine Parts Company is suitable for Enterprising Investors, but Defensive Investors are not quite as keen, and have concerns with the low current ratio along with the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The company passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor, though.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and its competitors through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY).  From a valuation standpoint, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.83 in 2010 to an estimated $4.19 for 2014.  This demonstrated level of growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 5.98% earnings growth, and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls within a margin of safety relative to the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Genuine Parts Company (GPC)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Be sure to review the previous ModernGraham Valuations of Genuine Parts Company (GPC)!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Genuine Parts Company (GPC) or any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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