Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how Pfizer Inc. (PFE) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Pfizer Inc. (Pfizer) is a research-based, global biopharmaceutical company. The Company manages its operations through five segments: Primary Care; Specialty Care and Oncology; Established Products and Emerging Markets; Animal Health, and Consumer Healthcare. The Company’s diversified global healthcare portfolio includes human and animal biologic and small molecule medicines and vaccines, as well as nutritional products and consumer healthcare products. Its Animal Health business unit discovers, develops and sells products for the prevention and treatment of diseases in livestock and companion animals. Primary Care operating segment includes revenues from human prescription pharmaceutical products primarily prescribed by primary-care physicians. In November 2012, the Company acquired NextWave Pharmaceuticals, Inc. On November 30, 2012, the Company completed the sale of its Nutrition business.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 7/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$23.75|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$13.92|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||4.73%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$5.68|
Balance Sheet – 3/30/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Pfizer achieves a rare feat, which is satisfying all of the requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. Not many companies meet this level of low-risk, and as a result, both investor types should have few concerns about the financial stability of the company. As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Merck & Co. (MRK) and ModernGraham’s valuation of Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY). From a valuation perspective, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.16 in 2010 to an estimated $1.64 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 4.73% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model to return an estimate of intrinsic value that falls within a margin of safety relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Pfizer Inc. (PFE)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Be sure to review the previous ModernGraham Valuations of Pfizer Inc. (PFE)!
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in Pfizer Inc. (PFE) or any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.