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Alcohol & Tobacco Stocks

Brown-Forman Corp Quarterly Valuation – June 2014 $BF/B

220px-Brown–Forman_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Enterprising Investor Near 52 Week Lows.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Brown-Forman Corp (BF/B) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Brown-Forman Corporation primarily manufactures, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells a variety of alcoholic beverage brands. The Company’s principal brands are Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Whiskey, Pepe Lopez Tequilas, Jack Daniel’s Single Barrel, Woodford Reserve Bourbons, Jack Daniel’s Ready-to-Drinks, Canadian Mist Blended Canadian Whiskies, Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Honey, Chambord Liqueur, Jack Daniel’s Winter Jack Chambord Vodka, Gentleman Jack, Collingwood Canadian Whisky, Southern Comfort, Early Times Bourbon, Southern Comfort Ready-to-Drinks, Early Times flavored line extensions, Southern Comfort flavored line extensions, Early Times Kentucky Whisky, Finlandia Vodkas, Korbel California Champagnes, Finlandia Ready-to-Drinks, Little Black Dress Vodkas, Antiguo Tequila, Maximus Vodkas, el Jimador Tequilas, Old Forester Bourbon, el Jimador New Mix Ready-to-Drinks, Sonoma-Cutrer Wines, Herradura Tequilas, and Tuaca Liqueur.

BF.B Chart

BF.B data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $93.67
MG Value $57.53
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $39.27
Value Based on 0% Growth $23.02
Market Implied Growth Rate 13.05%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.00
PEmg 34.59
Current Ratio 3.48
PB Ratio 10.58

Balance Sheet – 1/31/2014

Current Assets $2,103,000,000
Current Liabilities $604,000,000
Total Debt $997,000,000
Total Assets $3,993,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,289,000,000
Total Liabilities $2,104,000,000
Outstanding Shares 213,270,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 $3.06
2013 $2.75
2012 $2.37
2011 $2.60
2010 $2.01
2009 $1.91
2008 $1.89
2007 $1.72
2006 $1.71
2005 $1.34
2004 $1.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 $2.71
2013 $2.46
2012 $2.27
2011 $2.15
2010 $1.90
2009 $1.80

Dividend History

BF.B Dividend Chart

BF.B Dividend data by YCharts


Brown-Forman qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor has concerns with the high PEmg and PB ratios, but the company passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.90 in 2010 to only $2.71 in 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 13.05% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well below the market price at this time.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Brown-Forman (BF/B)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Brown-Forman (BF/B) or any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.

Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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