Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Undervalued Companies for the DefensiveÂ Investor.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how Deere & Co. (DE)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Deere & Company (John Deere) along with its subsidiaries, operates in three segments: agriculture and turf, construction and forestry and financial services. The John Deere agriculture and turf segment manufactures and distributes a line of agricultural and turf equipment and related service parts. John Deere construction, earthmoving, material handling and forestry equipment includes a broad range of backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape loaders, skid-steer loaders, log skidders, log feller bunchers, log loaders, log forwarders, log harvesters and a range of attachments. The financial services segment primarily finances sales and leases by John Deere dealers of new and used agriculture and turf equipment and construction and forestry equipment. In May 2014, the Company announced that it has completed the sale of its irrigation operations.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$112.63|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$66.02|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||1.57%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$6.53|
Balance Sheet – 4/30/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Deere & Co. is suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. Â The Defensive Investor’s only concern is with the high PB ratio while the Enterprising Investor has no significant concerns. Â As a result, value investorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT). Â From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be significantly undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.68 in 2010 to an estimated $7.77. Â This strong level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 1.57% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s methods, to return an estimate of intrinsic value that is well above the market price at this time.
Be sure to review the previousÂ ModernGraham Valuations of Deere & Co. (DE)!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put onÂ Deere & Co. (DE)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author held a long position in Deere & Co. (DE) but did not hold a positionÂ in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.