Mondelez International Annual Valuation – 2014 $MDLZ

220px-Mondelez_International.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Highest Dividend Yields Among Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Mondelez International (MDLZ) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Mondelez International, Inc. (Mondelez International) is a snack manufacturing company. The Company manufactures and markets food and beverage products for consumers in approximately 165 countries globally. The Company’s portfolio includes nine brands including Oreo, Nabisco and LU biscuits; Milka, Cadbury Dairy Milk and Cadbury chocolates; Trident gum; Jacobs coffee; and Tang powdered beverage. The Company’s portfolio of snack foods and refreshments also includes 53 brands. The Company operates in five segments: Latin America, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, Europe and North America. The Company has operations in more than 80 countries and sells its products in approximately 165 countries. On February 22, 2013, it acquired the remaining interest in a biscuit operation in Morocco, which is a wholly owned subsidiary within its EEMEA segment.

MDLZ Chart

MDLZ data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - FAIL

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $37.23
MG Value $7.72
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $20.84
Value Based on 0% Growth $12.22
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.70%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$16.28
PEmg 25.90
Current Ratio 0.89
PB Ratio 1.99

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $13,702,000,000
Current Liabilities $15,325,000,000
Total Debt $14,772,000,000
Total Assets $72,960,000,000
Intangible Assets $47,400,000,000
Total Liabilities $41,311,000,000
Outstanding Shares 1,695,740,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $1.68
2013 $1.29
2012 $0.86
2011 $1.99
2010 $1.44
2009 $2.03
2008 $1.22
2007 $1.62
2006 $1.85
2005 $1.72
2004 $1.55

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $1.44
2013 $1.38
2012 $1.46
2011 $1.72
2010 $1.60
2009 $1.69

Dividend History

MDLZ Dividend Chart

MDLZ Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Mondelez is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor has major concerns with the low current ratio, the lack of sufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, and the poor PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor also has concerns with the level of debt relative to the current assets and the lack of earnings growth over the last five years.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Pepsico (PEP) and ModernGraham’s valuation of General Mills (GIS).  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) drop from $1.60 in 2010 to an estimated $1.44 for 2014.  This demonstrated drop in earnings does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.70% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Mondelez International (MDLZ)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Mondelez International (MDLZ) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.


Posted

in

,

by

Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.