Juniper Networks Inc. Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $JNPR

500px-Juniper_Networks_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Juniper Networks, Inc. (Juniper Networks) designs, develops, and sells products and services that together provide its customers with network infrastructure. It operates in two segments: Infrastructure and Service Layer Technologies (SLT). The Company’s Infrastructure segment primarily offers routing and switching products that are used to control and direct network traffic from the core, through the edge, aggregation, and the customer premise equipment level. Infrastructure products include its Internet protocol (IP) routing, carrier Ethernet routing portfolio, and Ethernet switching portfolio. Its SLT segment offers solutions that meet a range of its customers’ priorities, from protecting the users, applications and data on the network itself to providing network services across a distributed infrastructure. Effective September 13, 2013, Juniper Networks, Inc. acquired Contrail Networks Inc.JNPR Chart

JNPR data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $24.27
MG Value $19.65
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $12.63
Value Based on 0% Growth $7.41
Market Implied Growth Rate 9.68%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.98
PEmg 27.85
Current Ratio 2.68
PB Ratio 1.82

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $3,879,800,000
Current Liabilities $1,446,300,000
Total Debt $1,348,900,000
Total Assets $9,723,600,000
Intangible Assets $4,195,900,000
Total Liabilities $3,414,100,000
Outstanding Shares 473,400,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $1.17
2013 $0.86
2012 $0.35
2011 $0.79
2010 $1.15
2009 $0.22
2008 $0.93
2007 $0.62
2006 -$1.76
2005 $0.59
2004 $0.25

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $0.87
2013 $0.71
2012 $0.65
2011 $0.78
2010 $0.59
2009 $0.25

Conclusion:

Juniper Networks is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor has concerns with the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, lack of dividend payments and the high PEmg ratio. The Enterprising Investor is concerned only by the lack of dividend payments. As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities such as through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Cisco Systems (CSCO). From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.59 in 2010 to an estimated $0.87 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 9.68% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Be sure to check out the previous ModernGraham valuations of Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) for more perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.


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