Capital One Financial Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $COF

500px-Capital_One_Financial_logo.svgIn the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to widdle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Capital One fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Capital One Financial Corporation is a diversified financial services holding company with banking and non-banking subsidiaries. Capital One Financial Corporation and its subsidiaries offer an array of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients through branches, the Internet and other distribution channels. As of December 31, 2012, the Company’s principal subsidiaries included Capital One Bank (USA), National Association (COBN), which offers credit and debit card products, other lending products and deposit products, and Capital One, National Association (CONA), which offers a spectrum of banking products and financial services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients. On February 17, 2012, the Company acquired ING Direct business in the United States (ING Direct) from ING Groep N.V., ING Bank N.V., ING Direct N.V. and ING Direct Bancorp. In November 2013, Capital One Financial Corp acquired Beech Street Capital LLC.
COF Chart

COF data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 5/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $83.96
MG Value $223.01
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $100.88
Value Based on 0% Growth $59.14
Market Implied Growth Rate 1.78%
PEmg 12.07
PB Ratio 1.12

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Total Debt $28,574,000,000
Total Assets $290,500,000,000
Intangible Assets $13,974,000,000
Total Liabilities $247,699,000,000
Outstanding Shares 572,920,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $6.92
2013 $7.35
2012 $6.54
2011 $7.03
2010 $6.68
2009 $0.98
2008 $0.14
2007 $6.55
2006 $7.62
2005 $6.73
2004 $6.21

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2014 (estimate) $6.96
2013 $6.56
2012 $5.53
2011 $4.78
2010 $3.90
2009 $3.14

Dividend History

COF Dividend Chart

COF Dividend data by YCharts


Capital One is suitable for Enterprising Investors but not for Defensive Investors.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the lack of sufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, but the company passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Discover Financial Services (DFS) and ModernGraham’s Valuation of American Express (AXP).  As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.90 in 2010 to an estimated $6.96 for 2014.  This strong level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.78% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the market price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Capital One (COF)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Be sure to check out the previous ModernGraham valuations of Capital One!

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Capital One (COF) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.






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