In the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period. Â Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation. Â We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before. Â By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to widdle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value toÂ get a sense of whether the company is a good investment. Â In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company. Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how CignaÂ fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Cigna Corporation (Cigna) is a holding company. Cigna is a global health service company, with insurance subsidiaries that are providers of medical, dental, disability, life and accident insurance and related products and services. In the United States, these products and services are offered through employers and other groups, and in selected international markets, Cigna offers supplemental health, life and accident insurance products and international health care coverage and services to businesses, governmental and non-governmental organizations and individuals. Cigna operates in five segments: Health Care, Disability and Life, International, Run-off Reinsurance, and Other Operations, including Corporate-owned Life Insurance. September 2013, Cigna Corporation completed its acquisition of Alegis Care, a portfolio company of Triton Pacific Capital Partners. Effective September 3, 2013, Cigna Corp acquired Home Physicians Management LLC.
Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 6/6
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS
Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$84.96|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$49.80|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||3.72%|
Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGrahamÂ
Cigna is an intriguing company for either Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors. Â The company passes all of the requirements of each investor type, an impressive accomplishment. Â As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Aetna Inc. (AET) and ModernGraham’s valuation of UnitedHealth (UNH). Â From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be significantly undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.85 in 2010 to an estimated $5.86 for 2014. Â This strong level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.72% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the market price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Cigna Corporation (CI)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave a comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Be sure to check out the previous ModernGraham valuations of Cigna Corporation!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Cigna Corporation (CI) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.