Allergan Inc. Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $AGN

220px-AllerganBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Allergan Inc. (AGN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Allergan, Inc. is a multi-specialty health care Company focused on developing and commercializing pharmaceuticals, biologics, medical devices and over-the-counter products. The Company’s segments include specialty pharmaceuticals, which produces a range of pharmaceutical products, including ophthalmic products for dry eye, glaucoma, inflammation, infection, allergy and retinal disease; Botox for certain therapeutic and aesthetic indications; skin care products for acne, psoriasis, eyelash growth and other prescription and over-the-counter skin care products; and urologic products and the medical devices segment, which produces a range of medical devices, including breast implants for augmentation, revision and reconstructive surgery and tissue expanders; obesity intervention products, and facial aesthetics products. In April 2014, TauTona Group’s subsidiary Aline Aesthetics has completed the sale of its Aline hyaluronic acid (HA) thread technology to Allergan, Inc.
AGN Chart

AGN data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $171.14
MG Value $158.65
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $59.75
Value Based on 0% Growth $35.03
Market Implied Growth Rate 16.52%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $4.55
PEmg 41.53
Current Ratio 4.37
PB Ratio 7.71

Balance Sheet – 3/31/2014

Current Assets $5,458,700,000
Current Liabilities $1,248,100,000
Total Debt $2,095,100,000
Total Assets $10,720,200,000
Intangible Assets $3,971,600,000
Total Liabilities $4,102,300,000
Outstanding Shares 298,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $5.65
2013 $4.20
2012 $3.58
2011 $3.01
2010 $0.00
2009 $2.03
2008 $1.89
2007 $1.62
2006 -$0.44
2005 $1.51
2004 $1.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $4.12
2013 $3.09
2012 $2.39
2011 $1.77
2010 $1.11
2009 $1.55

Dividend History

AGN Dividend Chart

AGN Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Allergan Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. The Defensive Investor has concerns with the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor’s only initial concern is the lack of earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities including a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY).  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.11 in 2010 to an estimated $4.12 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 16.52% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Allergan Inc. (AGN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Allergan Inc. (AGN) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.


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