Mattel Inc. Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $MAT

200px-Mattel-brand.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor with High Dividend Yields.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Mattel Inc. (MAT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Mattel, Inc. (Mattel) designs, manufactures and markets a variety of toy products worldwide which are sold to its customers and directly to consumers. Mattel’s portfolio of brands and products are grouped in categories, such as Mattel Girls & Boys Brands, including Barbie fashion dolls and accessories (Barbie), Polly Pocket, Little Mommy, Disney Classics, and Monster High (collectively Other Girls Brands), Hot Wheels, Matchbox, and Tyco R/C vehicles and play sets, and CARS, Radica, Toy Story, Max Steel, WWE Wrestling, and Batman, and games and puzzles; Fisher-Price Brands-including Fisher-Price, Little People, BabyGear, Imaginext, and View-Master, Dora the Explorer, Go Diego Go!, Thomas and Friends, Mickey Mouse Clubhouse, Sing-a-ma-jigs, and See ‘N Say, and Power Wheels, and American Girl Brands, including My American Girl, the historical collection, and Bitty Baby. In May 2014, the Company, through its subsidiary, acquired MEGA Brands Inc.
MAT Chart

MAT data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 7/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $35.25
MG Value $48.13
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $32.06
Value Based on 0% Growth $18.80
Market Implied Growth Rate 3.72%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$1.90
PEmg 15.94
Current Ratio 3.18
PB Ratio 4.03

Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014

Current Assets $2,885,300,000
Current Liabilities $908,600,000
Total Debt $2,100,000,000
Total Assets $6,478,500,000
Intangible Assets $2,177,800,000
Total Liabilities $3,526,900,000
Outstanding Shares 337,700,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $1.95
2013 $2.60
2012 $2.24
2011 $2.21
2010 $1.88
2009 $1.46
2008 $1.05
2007 $1.54
2006 $1.53
2005 $1.01
2004 $1.35

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.21
2013 $2.25
2012 $1.98
2011 $1.77
2010 $1.53
2009 $1.35

Dividend History
MAT Dividend Chart

MAT Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Mattel qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only initial concern is the high PB ratio, while the Enterprising Investor has no concerns.  Therefore, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities including a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Hasbro Inc. (HAS).  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.53 in 2010 to an estimated $2.21 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 3.72% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out the previous ModernGraham valuations of Mattel Inc. (MAT) for more perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Mattel Inc. (MAT)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Mattel Inc. (MAT) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.


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Comments

2 responses to “Mattel Inc. Quarterly Valuation – July 2014 $MAT”

  1. Evan Avatar

    Why the discrepancy between your Graham number and gurufocus which as of today has it $22.67? If it was a few dollars I’d understand but it is almost a 100% difference.

    Thanks! Just starting to learn this world

    1. Benjamin Clark Avatar

      Evan,

      I do not use the “Graham number” as that formula is essentially reverse-engineered from Graham’s requirements for the Defensive Investor. Instead, I use a formula he published in a different section of the book, Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2g), which he said provides a good estimate of intrinsic value. You can read more about the ModernGraham Valuation Model here.

      Hope that helps!

      -Ben

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