Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor with High Dividend Yields.Â Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how Fastenal (FAST)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Fastenal Company is engaged in selling industrial and construction supplies in a wholesale and retail fashion. The industrial and construction supplies are grouped into eleven product lines. The Company distributes the supplies through a network of approximately 2,600 company owned stores. Most of its customers are in the manufacturing and non-residential construction markets. The manufacturing market includes both original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and maintenance and repair operations (MRO). The non-residential construction market includes general, electrical, plumbing, sheet metal, and road contractors. Other users of its product include farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, federal, state, and local governmental entities, schools, and certain retail trades. Geographically, its stores and customers are primarily located in North America. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had 2,585 store locations.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$21.04|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$12.34|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||11.03%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$3.84|
Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Fastenal is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. Â The Defensive Investor has concerns with the high PEmg and PB ratios, but the company passes all of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor. Â As a result, Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities including a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of W.W. Grainger (GWW). Â As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be fairlyÂ valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.80 in 2010 to an estimated $1.45 for 2014. Â This level of demonstrated growth supportsÂ the market’s implied estimate of 11.03%Â earnings growth and leads the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative toÂ the price.
Be sure to check out theÂ previousÂ ModernGraham valuations of Fastenal (FAST)Â for more perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Fastenal (FAST)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Fastenal (FAST)Â orÂ in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.