Celgene Corporation Quarterly Valuation – August 2014 $CELG

Celgene-logoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Celgene Corp (CELG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Celgene Corporation is a global biopharmaceutical company engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies designed to treat cancer and immune-inflammatory related diseases. It is engaged in the research and development, which is designed to bring new therapies to market, and is engaged in research in several scientific areas that may deliver therapies, focusing areas, such as intracellular signaling pathways in cancer and immune cells, immunomodulation in cancer and autoimmune diseases, and therapeutic application of cell therapies. Its primary commercial stage products include REVLIMID, VIDAZA, THALOMID, ABRAXANE and ISTODAX. Additional sources of revenue include a licensing agreement with Novartis, which entitles it to royalties on FOCALIN XR and the entire RITALIN family of drugs, the sale of services through its Cellular Therapeutics subsidiary and other miscellaneous licensing agreements. In March 2012, it acquired Avila Therapeutics.
CELG Chart

CELG data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – FAIL
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $85.39
MG Value $76.62
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $28.86
Value Based on 0% Growth $16.92
Market Implied Growth Rate 17.20%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$3.31
PEmg 42.91
Current Ratio 5.44
PB Ratio 14.07

Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014

Current Assets $8,107,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,491,600,000
Total Debt $6,743,300,000
Total Assets $15,601,900,000
Intangible Assets $6,517,000,000
Total Liabilities $10,750,600,000
Outstanding Shares 799,200,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $2.88
2013 $1.68
2012 $1.65
2011 $1.42
2010 $0.94
2009 $0.83
2008 -$1.73
2007 $0.26
2006 $0.08
2005 $0.09
2004 $0.08

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $1.99
2013 $1.46
2012 $1.11
2011 $0.68
2010 $0.23
2009 -$0.12

Conclusion:

Celgene qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor has concerns with the lack of sufficient earnings stability over the last ten years, lack of dividend payments, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  Meanwhile, the Enterprising Investor’s only initial concern is the lack of dividend payments.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Amgen Inc. (AMGN).  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.23 in 2010 to an estimated $1.99 for 2014.  While a strong level of demonstrated growth, it does not support the market’s implied estimate of 17.20% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Be sure to check out the previous ModernGraham valuations of Celgene Corp (CELG) for more perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Celgene Corp (CELG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Celgene Corp (CELG) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.


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