Food Processing Stocks

Tyson Foods Inc. Quarterly Stock Valuation – September 2014 $TSN

220px-Tyson_Foods_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor Near 52 Week Lows – September 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tyson Foods, Inc. is a food production company. The Company produces, distributes and markets chicken, beef, pork, prepared foods and related allied products. It operates in four segments: Chicken, Beef, Pork and Prepared Foods. The Company operates an integrated poultry production process. The Company’s integrated operations consist of breeding stock, contract growers, feed production, processing, further-processing, marketing and transportation of chicken and related allied products, including animal and pet food ingredients. Through Cobb-Vantress, Inc. (Cobb), the Company supplies poultry breeding stock. The Company also processes live fed cattle and hogs and fabricate dressed beef and pork carcasses into primal and sub-primal meat cuts, case ready beef and pork and fully cooked meats. In August 2014, the Company merged with The Hillshire Brands Company.
TSN Chart

TSN data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $38.53
MG Value $87.22
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $32.85
Value Based on 0% Growth $19.26
Market Implied Growth Rate 4.25%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $0.43
PEmg 17.01
Current Ratio 2.11
PB Ratio 2.03

Balance Sheet – 6/28/2014

Current Assets $5,513,000,000
Current Liabilities $2,612,000,000
Total Debt $1,784,000,000
Total Assets $12,055,000,000
Intangible Assets $2,076,000,000
Total Liabilities $5,361,000,000
Outstanding Shares 352,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $2.80
2013 $2.31
2012 $1.58
2011 $1.97
2010 $2.06
2009 -$1.47
2008 $0.24
2007 $0.75
2006 -$0.56
2005 $0.99
2004 $1.13

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $2.27
2013 $1.76
2012 $1.28
2011 $0.99
2010 $0.41
2009 -$0.28

Dividend History
TSN Dividend Chart

TSN Dividend data by YCharts

Conclusion:

Tyson Foods Inc. qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.41 in 2010 to an estimated $2.27 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 4.25% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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