5 Undervalued Companies for Value Investors with a High Beta – October 2014

20140530-054905-20945379.jpgThere are a number of great companies in the market today. By using the ModernGraham Valuation Model, I’ve selected the five undervalued companies reviewed by ModernGraham with the highest beta.  A company’s beta indicates the correlation at which its price moves in relation to the market.  A beta greater than 1 indicates a company is more volatile than the market.  Each company has been determined to be suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor according to the ModernGraham approach. This is a sample of one screen that is included in ModernGraham Stocks & Screens.  Defensive Investors are defined as investors who are not able or willing to do substantial research into individual investments, and therefore need to select only the companies that present the least amount of risk. Enterprising Investors, on the other hand, are able to do substantial research and can select companies that present a moderate (though still low) amount of risk.

With a high beta, Mr. Market may turn these companies around very quickly, so be sure to check them out in depth!

PulteGroup Inc. (PHM)

logo (1)PulteGroup qualifies for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor has concerns with the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned by the lack of earnings stability over the last five years.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  From a valuation perspective, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from a loss of $4.20 in 2010 to an estimated gain of $2.03 for 2014.  This level of earnings growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.56% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.  (See the full valuation)
PHM Chart

PHM data by YCharts

Joy Global Inc. (JOY)

2012_JGI_logo_wikipediaJoy Global qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The company achieves the rare feat of passing all of the requirements of both investor types, and as a result there are no initial concerns.  Therefore, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities including a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT).  As for a valuation, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.89 in 2010 to an estimated $4.87 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 2.20% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.  (See the full valuation)
JOY Chart

JOY data by YCharts

Lincoln National Corp (LNC)

LfglogoLincoln National is suitable for Enterprising Investor but not for Defensive Investors.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, though the company passes all of the Enterprising Investor’s requirements.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.42 in 2010 to an estimated $4.18 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 1.94% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price.  (See the full valuation)
LNC Chart

LNC data by YCharts

National Oilwell-Varco (NOV)

National_Oilwell_Varco_Logo.svgNational Oilwell Varco qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor’s only initial concern is the short dividend history while the company passes all of the Enterprising Investor’s requirements. Consequently, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.88 in 2010 to an estimated $5.53 for 2014, an overall growth rate of around 8.55% annually. National Oilwell Varco’s growth in its EPSmg demonstrates a long-term trend in the company’s earnings, a sight that value investors love to see. Overall, EPSmg has grown in each of the last five years, and it should be expected that growth will continue into the future. This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.81% earnings growth.  The ModernGraham valuation is based on an estimate of growth of 6.41%. As a result, it is clear that the market’s current pricing of National Oilwell Varco may be low, and therefore the ModernGraham conclusion is the company appears to be undervalued.  (See the full valuation)
NOV Chart

NOV data by YCharts

Eastman Chemical Co. (EMN)

200px-Eastman_Chemical_Company_logo.svgEastman Chemical Company qualifies for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. In fact, the only requirement of either investor type which the company does not pass is the Enterprising Investor’s requirement of low debt to net current assets. As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities through a review of ModernGraham’s valuation of The Dow Chemical Company (DOW). As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.06 in 2010 to an estimated $5.63 for 2014. This strong level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.84% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value well above the price.  (See the full valuation here)
EMN Chart

EMN data by YCharts

What do you think?  Are these companies a good value for Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in any company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing those holdings within the next 72 hours.


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