CME Group Inc. Annual Stock Valuation – 2014 $CME

cmeGroupLogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Highest Dividend Yields Among Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – September 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how CME Group Inc. (CME) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): CME Group Inc. (CME Group) offer a range of global products across all asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, weather and real estate. The Company’s products include both exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. CME Group also provides clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts, as well as for cleared over-the-counter derivatives transactions. In April 2012, it acquired a 100% interest in GreenX Holdings LLC. On July 2, 2012, S&P Capital IQ, a business line of The McGraw-Hill Companies acquired London-based Credit Market Analysis Limited (CMA) from CME Group. In November 2013, CME Group Inc announced the sale of the NYMEX Building located at One North End Avenue to Brookfield Office Properties.
CME Chart

CME data by YCharts

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $81.22
MG Value $32.76
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $45.58
Value Based on 0% Growth $26.72
Market Implied Growth Rate 8.67%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$25.17
PEmg 25.84
Current Ratio 1.07
PB Ratio 1.26

Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014

Current Assets $21,731,200,000
Current Liabilities $20,376,700,000
Total Debt $2,107,500,000
Total Assets $51,611,300,000
Intangible Assets $27,435,200,000
Total Liabilities $30,145,900,000
Outstanding Shares 334,300,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $3.30
2013 $2.92
2012 $3.02
2011 $3.41
2010 $3.09
2009 $2.66
2008 $3.20
2007 $3.15
2006 $2.32
2005 $1.76
2004 $1.28

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $3.14
2013 $3.05
2012 $3.10
2011 $3.13
2010 $2.95
2009 $2.80

Dividend History
CME Dividend Chart

CME Dividend data by YCharts


CME Group does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, lack of sufficient earnings growth over the last ten years and the high PEmg ratio while the Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.95 in 2010 to an estimated $3.14 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.67% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on CME Group Inc. (CME)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in CME Group Inc. (CME) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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