Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Undervalued Companies to Research for the Defensive Investor -Â October 2014.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at howÂ Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Microchip Technology Incorporated develops and manufactures specialized semiconductor products used by its customers for a variety of embedded control applications. The Companyâ€™s portfolio consists of specialized 8-bit, 16-bit, and 32-bit PIC microcontrollers and 16-bit dsPIC digital signal controllers, which feature on-board Flash (reprogrammable) memory technology. In addition, the Company offers a broad spectrum of high-performance linear, mixed-signal, power management, thermal management, RF, safety and security, and interface devices, as well as serial EEPROMs, Serial Flash memories and Parallel Flash memories. The Company also licenses Flash-IP solutions that are incorporated in a broad range of products. In November 2013, Microchip Technology Inc announced the acquisition of EqcoLogic. In April 2014, Microchip Technology Inc acquired Supertex Inc.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$25.37|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$14.87|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||6.72%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||$0.53|
Balance Sheet – 6/30/2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per ShareÂ – ModernGraham
Microchip TechnologiesÂ qualifiesÂ for the Enterprising Investor but not the Defensive Investor. Â The Defensive Investor has concerns with the company’s level of growth over the last ten years, andÂ high PEmg and PB ratios. Â The Enterprising InvestorÂ has no initial concerns.Â As a result, Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities. Â From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvaluedÂ after growingÂ its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.60 in 2011 to only an estimated $1.75 for 2015. Â This level of demonstrated growthÂ does not supportÂ the market’s implied estimate of 6.72%Â earnings growth and leads the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value belowÂ the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Microchip Technologies (MCHP)Â for better perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Microchip Technologies (MCHP)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Microchip Technologies (MCHP)Â orÂ in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.