Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies to Research for the Defensive Investor – October 2014. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Newell Rubbermaid Inc. is a global marketer of consumer and commercial products. The Company’s products are marketed under a portfolio of brands, including Rubbermaid, Levolor, Goody, Calphalon, Sharpie, Paper Mate, Parker, Waterman, Irwin, Lenox, Graco, Aprica and Dymo. The Company’s segments and the brands included in each of the six business segments includes Home Solutions, which includes Rubbermaid, Calphalon, Levolor, Kirsch and Goody; Writing, which includes Sharpie, Paper Mate, Expo, Prismacolor, Parker and Waterman; Tools, which include Irwin and Lenox tools, and Dymo Industrial; Commercial Products, which include Rubbermaid Commercial Products and Rubbermaid Healthcare; Baby & Parenting, which include Graco, Aprica and Teutonia, and Specialty, which include Dymo Office and Endicia. In September 2014, it acquired Ignite Holdings, LLC from North Castle Partners and its co-investors.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$21.44|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$12.57|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.55%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$5.93|
Balance Sheet – June 2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
Newell Rubbermaid does not qualify for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the lack of earnings stability or growth over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has concerns with the level of debt relative to the current assets. As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time. From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.86 in 2010 to an estimated $1.48 for 2014. This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 7.55% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value within a margin of safety relative to the price.
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. What do you think? What value would you put on Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL)? Where do you see the company going in the future? Is there a company you like better? Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.