Marathon Petroleum Corporation Annual Valuation – 2014 $MPC

MPClogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Companies to Research for the Defensive Investor - October 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Marathon Petroleum Corporation (Marathon Petroleum) is engaged in refining, transporting and marketing petroleum products in the United States. The Company’s refining, marketing and transportation operations are concentrated in the Midwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast regions of the United States. These include a six-plant refining network, a terminal and transportation system, and wholesale and retail marketing operations. This includes both the Marathon Brand and Marathon Petroleum’s wholly owned retail marketing subsidiary, Speedway LLC and operated retail gasoline and convenience stores. As of December 31, 2012, the Company leased or owned approximately 1,944 leased and 27 owned railcars of various sizes and capacities for movement and storage of refined products.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $87.18
MG Value $266.45
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $100.35
Value Based on 0% Growth $58.83
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.05%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$17.85
PEmg 12.60
Current Ratio 1.23
PB Ratio 2.37

Balance Sheet – June 2014

Current Assets $13,596,000,000
Current Liabilities $11,055,000,000
Total Debt $3,612,000,000
Total Assets $29,376,000,000
Intangible Assets $937,000,000
Total Liabilities $18,756,000,000
Outstanding Shares 289,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $6.50
2013 $6.64
2012 $9.89
2011 $6.67
2010 $1.74

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $6.92
2013 $6.42
2012 $5.42
2011 $2.69
2010 $0.58

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Marathon Petroleum Corporation does not satisfy either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, as well as the short earnings and dividend history.  The Enterprising Investor has concerns with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities at this time.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.58 in 2010 to an estimated $6.92 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.05% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.


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