After reviewing the data, it is clear that conservative value investors may wish to seek other opportunities. The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio in combination with the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years as well as the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor has concerns with the high level of debt relative to the net current assets. As a result, both investor types would find the company to be too risky to proceed. That said, any investors willing to speculate about the future of the company may go ahead with the next step of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When calculating an estimate of intrinsic value, it is important to consider the historical earnings results along with the market’s implied estimate for future growth. Here, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.47 in 2011 to an estimated $2.07 for 2015. This level of demonstrated growth is fairly strong, but does not support the market’s implied estimate of 11.22%. Based on the demonstrated growth, and lessened by a margin of safety, the ModernGraham valuation model estimates a more conservative growth over the next 7-10 years to be around 6%. As a result, the company appears to be significantly overvalued at the present time.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Lowe’s Companiesfor a greater perspective!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold aÂ position in Lowe’s Companies (LOW)Â orÂ in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.