Machinery Stocks

Regal-Beloit Corporation Quarterly Valuation – December 2014 $RBC

RBClogoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Undervalued Dow Components to Research – December 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Regal-Beloit Corporation (RBC) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance):  Regal Beloit Corporation is a global manufacturer of electric motors and controls, electric generators and controls, and mechanical motion control products. The Company operates in two segments: Electrical and Mechanical. Its electrical products include motors used in commercial and residential heating, ventilation, air conditioning ( HVAC) applications, a full line of alternating current ( AC) and direct current ( DC) commercial and industrial electric motors, electric generators and controls, high-performance drives and controls, and capacitors. Its mechanical products include primarily gears and gearboxes, marine transmissions, automotive transmissions, manual valve actuators, and electrical connectivity devices. In February 2013, it acquired RAM motor business. In July 2014, the Company acquired Benshaw Inc.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $71.20
MG Value $45.20
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $55.68
Value Based on 0% Growth $32.64
Market-Implied Growth Rate 5.02%
NCAV $3.96
PEmg 18.54
Current Ratio 2.90
PB Ratio 1.51

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $1,719,000,000
Current Liabilities $593,000,000
Total Debt $669,000,000
Total Assets $3,671,000,000
Intangible Assets $1,361,000,000
Total Liabilities $1,540,000,000
Outstanding Shares 45,200,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $4.34
2013 $2.64
2012 $4.64
2011 $3.79
2010 $3.84
2009 $2.63
2008 $3.78
2007 $3.49
2006 $3.28
2005 $2.25
2004 $1.22

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $3.84
2013 $3.56
2012 $3.93
2011 $3.55
2010 $3.42
2009 $3.17

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Regal-Beloit Corporation qualifies for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the low level of earnings growth over the last ten years, and the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $3.42 in 2010 to only $3.84 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 5.02% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Regal-Beloit Corporation (RBC) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Regal-Beloit Corporation (RBC)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Regal-Beloit Corporation (RBC) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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