Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Undervalued Dow Components to Research – December 2014.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how Amgen Inc. (AMGN)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Amgen Inc. (Amgen) is a global biotechnology company that discovers, develops, manufactures and delivers human therapeutics. It focuses its research and development activities on human therapeutics for in the areas of oncology, hematology, inflammation, bone health, nephrology, cardiovascular and general medicine, which includes neuroscience. The Companyâ€™s marketed products include Neulasta, NEUPOGEN, ENBREL, Aranesp, EPOGEN, Sensipar/Mimpara, XGEVA and Prolia. In addition to its marketed products, the Company has various product candidates in mid-to late-stage of development. The Company markets its principal products primarily in the United States in cancer care, inflammation, nephrology and bone disease. As of February 17, 2014, the Company has 16 Phase III programs.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$95.21|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$55.81|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||8.28%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$12.19|
Balance Sheet – SeptemberÂ 2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per ShareÂ – ModernGraham
Amgen is suitableÂ for the Enterprising Investor but notÂ for the Defensive Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is concerned by the short dividend history as well as the highÂ PEmg and PBÂ ratios. Â The Enterprising Investor, on the other hand, is only concerned by the level of debt relative to the net current assets. Â As a result, Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities. Â As for a valuation,Â the company appears to be fairlyÂ valuedÂ after growingÂ its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $4.09 in 2010 to an estimated $6.57 for 2014. Â This level of demonstrated growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 8.28%Â earnings growth and leads the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic valueÂ within a margin of safety relative toÂ the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Amgen Inc. (AMGN) for greater perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Amgen Inc. (AMGN)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Amgen Inc. (AMGN)Â orÂ in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.