REIT Stocks

Simon Property Group Annual Valuation – 2015 $SPG

220px-SimonMallsLogo2014REITs often attract a great deal of investors because of their strong cash flows and dividends, and those investors often overlook other parts of the business, choosing to analyze the company under a different set of criteria than companies in other sectors.  This can create a problem in that it becomes difficult to compare a REIT to an industrial, which is fine if you use the typical top-down approach to stock selection; however, a top-down approach invites speculation in the fact that you are theorizing which sector will perform well going forward.  Benjamin Graham taught that we should avoid speculation as much as possible, which is why it is critical to develop a system for analyzing companies that will allow them to be compared across industries.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another investment opportunity.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Simon Property Group (SPG) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Simon Property Group, Inc.( Simon Property), is a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). Simon Property Group, L.P.( Operating Partnership), is the Company’s majority-owned partnership subsidiary that owns all of its real estate properties and other assets. The Company owns, develops and manages retail real estate properties, which consist primarily of malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, and community/lifestyle centers. On January 9, 2012, it sold its interest in Gallerie Commerciali Italia, S.p.A. In June 2012, the Company acquired 50% of Silver Sands Factory Stores. In December 2012, the Company acquired Paragon Outlets Grand Prairie in Grand Prairie, Texas and Paragon Outlets Livermore Valley in Livermore, California. Effective January 31, 2014, Simon Property Group Inc acquired a 50% interest in Arizona Mills. In May 2014, Simon Property Group Inc announced the separation of Washington Prime Group Inc.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $185.34
MG Value $216.32
MG Opinion Fairly Valued
Value Based on 3% Growth $81.47
Value Based on 0% Growth $47.76
Market Implied Growth Rate 12.24%
NCAV -$75.02
PEmg 32.99
Current Ratio 1.16
PB Ratio 11.47

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $1,335,000,000
Current Liabilities $1,151,000,000
Total Debt $21,202,000,000
Total Assets $29,672,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $24,651,000,000
Outstanding Shares 310,800,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $8.82
2013 $4.24
2012 $4.72
2011 $3.48
2010 $2.10
2009 $1.05
2008 $1.87
2007 $1.91
2006 $2.14
2005 $1.78
2004 $1.41

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $5.62
2013 $3.72
2012 $3.19
2011 $2.31
2010 $1.75
2009 $1.63

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Simon Property Group is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the high level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach should explore other opportunities at this time.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be fairly valued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.75 in 2010 to an estimated $5.62 in 2014.  This demonstrated level of growth supports the market’s implied estimate of 12.24% earnings growth over the next 7-10 years.  As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value that is within a margin of safety relative to the market price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Simon Property Group (SPG) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Simon Property Group (SPG)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Simon Property Group (SPG) or any other company mentioned in the article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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