Media Entertainment Stocks

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $FOXA

220px-21st_Century_Fox_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. (FOXA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Twenty-First Century Fox, Inc., formerly News Corporation, is a diversified global media and entertainment company. The Company operates five industry segments: Cable Network Programming, which provides news, sports, entertainment and movie programming through cable television systems, direct broadcast satellite operators, telecommunications companies and online video distributors; Television, which operates television stations and broadcasts network programs in the United States; Filmed Entertainment, which offers live-action and animated motion pictures for distribution and licensing; Direct Broadcast Satellite Television, which offers broadcast services in Italy, Germany and Austria, and Other, Corporate and Eliminations. The Company operates a global portfolio of cable, broadcast, film, pay-TV and satellite assets spanning six continents. The Company also owns BigDecisions.com platform, which provides financial decision-making tools to Indian customers.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – PASS
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $37.08
MG Value $69.12
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $26.03
Value Based on 0% Growth $15.26
Market Implied Growth Rate 6.08%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$10.70
PEmg 20.65
Current Ratio 1.63
PB Ratio 5.00

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $14,950,000,000
Current Liabilities $9,158,000,000
Total Debt $19,395,000,000
Total Assets $54,711,000,000
Intangible Assets $25,440,000,000
Total Liabilities $38,446,000,000
Outstanding Shares 2,195,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2015 (estimate) $1.58
2014 $1.99
2013 $3.03
2012 $0.47
2011 $1.04
2010 $0.97
2009 -$1.29
2008 $1.81
2007 $1.14
2006 $0.76
2005 $0.73

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2015 (estimate) $1.80
2014 $1.77
2013 $1.39
2012 $0.58
2011 $0.66
2010 $0.54

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, lack of earnings stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor’s only initial concern is with the level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.66 in 2011 to $1.80 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 6.08% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. (FOXA) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. (FOXA)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. (FOXA) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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