Mining Stocks

Alcoa Inc. Annual Valuation – 2015 $AA

top_alcoa_logo_wideBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Alcoa Inc. (AA) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Alcoa Inc. (Alcoa) is engaged in lightweight metals, products and solutions. The Company offers its technology and expertise in automotive and aerospace transportation, building and construction, consumer electronics and packaging, defense applications across air, land and sea, and the oil and gas industry. The Company is also a producer of primary aluminum, as well as a miner of bauxite and refiner of alumina. The Company’s segments include Alumina, Primary Metals, Global Rolled Products and Engineered Products and Solutions.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 2/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – FAIL

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $9,689,000,000
Current Liabilities $5,354,000,000
Total Debt $8,797,000,000
Total Assets $37,122,000,000
Intangible Assets $3,389,000,000
Total Liabilities $24,726,000,000
Outstanding Shares 1,205,000,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $0.76
2013 -$2.14
2012 $0.18
2011 $0.55
2010 $0.24
2009 -$1.23
2008 -$0.10
2007 $2.95
2006 $2.57
2005 $1.40
2004 $1.49

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) -$0.19
2013 -$0.61
2012 $0.08
2011 $0.18
2010 $0.30
2009 $0.59

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Alcoa Inc. is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio, the insufficient earnings growth or stability over the last ten years, and the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets, and the lack of earnings growth or stability over the last five years.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be overvalued after seeing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) drop from $0.30 in 2010 to an estimated loss of $0.19 for 2014.  Due to the negative EPSmg, the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, returns an estimate of intrinsic value well below the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Alcoa Inc. (AA) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Alcoa Inc. (AA)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Alcoa Inc. (AA) at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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