Family Dollar Stores Inc. Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $FDO
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Family Dollar Stores, Inc. (Family Dollar) operates a chain of more than 7,900 general merchandise retail discount stores in 46 states, providing consumers with a selection of merchandise in neighborhood stores. The Company’s merchandise assortment includes Consumables, Home Products, Apparel and Accessories, and Seasonal and Electronics. Its Family Dollar store is between 7,500 and 9,500 square feet, with an average of approximately 7,200 square feet of selling space. During the fiscal year ended August 25, 2013, the Company operated 7,916 stores. The Company offers a focused assortment of merchandise in a number of core categories, such as health and beauty aids, packaged food and refrigerated products, home cleaning supplies, house wares, stationery, seasonal goods, apparel, and home fashions. The Company’s typical store generally carries approximately 6500 – 7000 basic stock keeping units (SKUs).
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $76.93 |
| MG Value | $41.86 |
| MG Opinion | Overvalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $42.80 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $25.09 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 8.78% |
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$0.86 |
| PEmg | 26.06 |
| Current Ratio | 1.52 |
| PB Ratio | 5.22 |
Balance Sheet – November 2014
| Current Assets | $2,247,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $1,476,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $299,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $4,032,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $2,345,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 114,500,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2015 (estimate) | $2.51 |
| 2014 | $2.49 |
| 2013 | $3.83 |
| 2012 | $3.58 |
| 2011 | $3.12 |
| 2010 | $2.62 |
| 2009 | $2.07 |
| 2008 | $1.66 |
| 2007 | $1.62 |
| 2006 | $1.26 |
| 2005 | $1.30 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2015 (estimate) | $2.95 |
| 2014 | $3.16 |
| 2013 | $3.34 |
| 2012 | $2.94 |
| 2011 | $2.48 |
| 2010 | $2.06 |
Dividend History
Conclusion:
Family Dollar Stores Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the low current ratio,  and the high PEmg and PB ratios. The Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.48 in 2011 to only an estimated $2.95 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 8.78% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO)Â for greater perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
