Oil & Gas Stocks

Conoco Phillips Annual Valuation – 2015 $COP

conoco-phillipsBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – December 2014.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Conoco Phillips (COP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): ConocoPhillips is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company. The Company manages its operations through six segments: The Alaska segment explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas and LNG; The Lower 48 and Latin America segment consists of operations located in the United States Lower 48 states, as well as exploration in the Gulf of Mexico and Colombia; Canadian operations consist of natural gas fields in western Canada and oil sands developments in the Athabasca Region of northeastern Alberta; The Europe segment consists of operations located in the Norwegian and United Kingdom sectors of the North Sea, as well as exploration in Poland and Greenland; The Asia Pacific and Middle East segment has exploration and production in China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia and the Timor Sea, operations in Qatar, Bangladesh and Brunei; The Other International segment includes exploration and producing operations in Libya and Russia.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $64.65
MG Value $259.85
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $97.87
Value Based on 0% Growth $57.37
Market Implied Growth Rate 0.54%
NCAV -$38.05
PEmg 9.58
Current Ratio 1.15
PB Ratio 1.46

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $16,253,000,000
Current Liabilities $14,141,000,000
Total Debt $19,499,000,000
Total Assets $118,986,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $63,712,000,000
Outstanding Shares 1,247,400,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $5.20
2013 $7.38
2012 $6.72
2011 $8.97
2010 $7.62
2009 $2.94
2008 -$11.16
2007 $7.22
2006 $9.66
2005 $9.55
2004 $5.80

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $6.75
2013 $7.26
2012 $5.80
2011 $4.60
2010 $2.70
2009 $1.37

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Conoco Phillips is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned with the low current ratio and the insufficient earnings stability or growth over the last ten years.  The Enterprising Investor is concerned with the level of debt relative to the current assets.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should explore other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.70 in 2010 to an estimated $6.75 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 0.54% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Conoco Phillips (COP) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Conoco Phillips (COP)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Conoco Phillips (COP) at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Back To Top