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Boston Properties Inc. Quarterly Valuation – January 2015 $BXP

220px-Boston-prpts-logoBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – January 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Boston Properties Inc. (BXP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Boston Properties, Inc. is an integrated, self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT) and owner and developer of office properties in the United States. The Company’s properties are concentrated in five markets: Boston, New York, Princeton, San Francisco and Washington, DC. The Company conducts all of its business through its subsidiary, Boston Properties Limited Partnership (BPLP). The Company owns or controls undeveloped land parcels of approximately 503.6 acres. The Company owns around 175 properties, including nine properties under construction, which constituted approximately 2.9 million rentable square feet. Its properties consist of approximately 167 office properties, including approximately 128 Class A office and approximately 39 office/technical properties; one hotel; four retail properties, and three residential properties.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 4/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years – PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period – FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 – PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – FAIL
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $138.80
MG Value $61.55
MG Opinion Overvalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $54.53
Value Based on 0% Growth $31.97
Market Implied Growth Rate 14.20%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) -$74.35
PEmg 36.91
Current Ratio 3.20
PB Ratio 3.72

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Current Assets $1,752,000,000
Current Liabilities $548,000,000
Total Debt $10,656,000,000
Total Assets $18,875,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $13,150,000,000
Outstanding Shares 153,300,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $5.27
2013 $4.86
2012 $1.92
2011 $1.86
2010 $1.14
2009 $1.76
2008 $0.87
2007 $10.94
2006 $7.46
2005 $3.86
2004 $2.61

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 (estimate) $3.76
2013 $2.77
2012 $1.66
2011 $2.12
2010 $2.98
2009 $4.26

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Boston Properties Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years as well as the high PEmg and PB ratios.  The Enterprising Investor is only concerned by the high level of debt relative to the net current assets.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.98 in 2010 to an estimated $3.76 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 14.2% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Boston Properties Inc. (BXP) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Boston Properties Inc. (BXP)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Boston Properties Inc. (BXP) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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