Insurance Stocks

Torchmark Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $TMK

Torchmark_LogoIn the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to whittle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Torchmark Corporation (TMK) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Torchmark Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company is financial services holding company whose affiliate Companies market life insurance and supplemental health insurance to middle-income Americans. The Company operates in three segments: life insurance, health insurance, and annuities. Life insurance products include traditional and interest-sensitive whole life insurance, as well as term life insurance. Health products are guaranteed-renewable and include Medicare Supplement, Medicare Part D, cancer, accident, long-term care, and limited-benefit hospital and surgical coverage’s. Annuities include fixed-benefit contracts. The Company’s primary subsidiaries are American Income Life Insurance Company (American Income), Liberty National Life Insurance Company (Liberty), Globe Life And Accident Insurance Company (Globe), United American Insurance Company (United American), and Family Heritage Life Insurance Company of America (Family Heritage).

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 6/6

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
  2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
  5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

  1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
  3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $50.07
MG Value $87.50
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $52.95
Value Based on 0% Growth $31.04
Market Implied Growth Rate 2.61%
PEmg 13.71
PB Ratio 1.46

Balance Sheet – September 2014

Total Debt $992,000,000
Total Assets $19,871,000,000
Intangible Assets $442,000,000
Total Liabilities $15,341,000,000
Outstanding Shares 131,900,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 (estimate) $4.01
2013 $3.79
2012 $3.61
2011 $3.02
2010 $2.70
2009 $2.17
2008 $2.27
2007 $2.44
2006 $2.28
2005 $2.08
2004 $1.86

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

2014 (estimate) $3.65
2013 $3.33
2012 $2.99
2011 $2.63
2010 $2.41
2009 $2.26

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Torchmark Corporation is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  In fact, the company passes all of the requirements of both investor types, an impressive accomplishment.  As a result, value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.41 in 2010 to an estimated $3.65 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.61% annual earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Torchmark Corporation (TMK) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Torchmark Corporation (TMK)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Torchmark Corporation (TMK) or in any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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