Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk. Â This isÂ best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another companyÂ or by reviewing theÂ 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – January 2015.Â By using theÂ ModernGraham methodÂ one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. Â What follows is a specific look at how Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN)Â fares in theÂ ModernGraham valuation model.
Company ProfileÂ (obtained fromÂ Google Finance):Â Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (Mead Johnson) is a global pediatric nutrition company. The Company manufactures, distributes and sells infant formulas, children’s nutrition and other nutritional products. Its Enfa family of brands, including Enfamil infant formula, is the global brand franchise in pediatric nutrition. Its product portfolio addresses a range of nutritional needs for infants, children and expectant and nursing mothers. The Company markets its portfolio of more than 70 products to mothers, health care professionals and retailers in more than 50 countries in Asia, North America, Latin America and Europe. In addition to the Enfa family of brands, the Company markets several other brands on a local, regional or global basis. These brands complement the Enfa family of brands portfolio, such as Nutramigen or the nutritional needs of broad consumer populations, such as ChocoMilk and Cal-C-Tose.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â FAIL
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â FAIL
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 – FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â FAIL
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$44.90|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$26.32|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||11.83%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$3.86|
Balance Sheet – DecemberÂ 2014
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per ShareÂ – ModernGraham
Mead Johnson Nutrition is suitableÂ for the Enterprising Investor but notÂ for the Defensive Investor. Â The Defensive Investor is concerned by the lack of earnings stability over the last ten years,Â dividend history, andÂ the high PEmg and PB ratios.Â The Enterprising Investor’s only initial concern is the level of debt relative to net current assets. Â As a result, Enterprising InvestorsÂ following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities. Â From a valuation side of things,Â the company appears to be overvaluedÂ after growingÂ its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.06 in 2010 to an estimated $3.10 for 2014. Â This level of demonstrated growth does not supportÂ the market’s implied estimate of 11.83%Â earnings growth and leads the ModernGrahamÂ valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value belowÂ the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (MJN)Â for greater perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects. Â What do you think? Â What value would you put on Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (MJN)? Â Where do you see the company going in the future? Â Is there a company you like better? Â Leave aÂ comment on ourÂ Facebook pageÂ or mentionÂ @ModernGrahamÂ on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold a position in Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (MJN)Â orÂ in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.