Microsoft passes the initial requirements of both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor. The only issue the Defensive Investor has with the company is the high PB ratio, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns. As a result, all value investors should feel very comfortable proceeding to the next part of the analysis, which is a determination of the company’s intrinsic value.
When it comes to that valuation, it is critical to consider the company’s earnings history. In this case, the company has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.12 in 2011 to $2.40 for 2015. This is a strong level of demonstrated growth but it is below the market’s implied estimate for earnings growth of 4.64% over the next 7-10 years. In fact, the historical growth is around 2.56% per year, so the market is expecting a very significant drop in earnings growth. The ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value falling below the current price, indicating the company is overvalued at the present time.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)Â for greater perspective!
Disclaimer: Â The author did not hold aÂ position in Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)Â at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours. Â Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.