Precision Castparts Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $PCP
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – February 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Precision Castparts Corporation (PCP) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Precision Castparts Corp. (PCC) is a manufacturer of metal components and products. The Company provides investment castings, forgings, fasteners or fastener systems and aerostructures for aerospace and power applications. The Company operates in three segments: Investment Cast Products, Forged Products and Airframe Products. The Investment Cast Products segment manufactures investment castings and provides related investment casting materials and alloys, for aircraft engines, IGT engines, airframes, armaments and other industrial applications. The Forged Products segment manufactures forged components from titanium and nickel-based alloys for the aerospace and power markets and manufactures nickel, titanium and cobalt-based alloys used to produce forged components for aerospace and non-aerospace markets. The Airframe Products segment manufactures engineered fasteners, fastener systems, fluid fittings, aerostructures and precision components for aerospace applications.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $219.61 |
| MG Value | $297.70 |
| MG Opinion | Undervalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $159.69 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $93.61 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 5.72% |
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | -$13.00 |
| PEmg | 19.94 |
| Current Ratio | 2.53 |
| PB Ratio | 2.67 |
Balance Sheet – December 2014
| Current Assets | $6,002,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $2,376,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $3,498,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $19,651,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $10,482,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $7,864,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 143,200,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2015 (estimate) | $12.74 |
| 2014 | $12.12 |
| 2013 | $9.72 |
| 2012 | $8.41 |
| 2011 | $7.04 |
| 2010 | $6.49 |
| 2009 | $7.43 |
| 2008 | $7.04 |
| 2007 | $4.59 |
| 2006 | $2.58 |
| 2005 | -$0.01 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2015 (estimate) | $11.01 |
| 2014 | $9.69 |
| 2013 | $8.25 |
| 2012 | $7.44 |
| 2011 | $6.81 |
| 2010 | $6.34 |
Dividend History
Conclusion:
Precision Castparts Corporation is suitable for both the Defensive Investor and the Enterprising Investor.  The Defensive Investor’s only concern is the high PB ratio, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns with the company. As a result, all value investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $6.81 in 2011 to an estimated $11.01 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 5.72% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Precision Castparts Corporation (PCP)Â for greater perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Precision Castparts Corporation (PCP)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Precision Castparts Corporation (PCP) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
