Progressive Corporation Quarterly Valuation – February 2015 $PGR

In the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period.  Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn’t be considered when evaluating the company’s prospects, but doing so would involve speculation.  We don’t know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before.  By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to whittle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment.  In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Progressive Corporation (PGR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company. The Company’s insurance subsidiaries and mutual insurance company affiliate provide personal and commercial automobile insurance and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services. The Company’s property-casualty insurance products protect customers against losses due to collision and physical damage to their motor vehicles, uninsured and underinsured bodily injury, and liability to others for personal injury or property damage arising out of the use of those vehicles. The Company operates businesses throughout the United States and sells personal auto insurance on an Internet-only basis in Australia. The Company offers personal and commercial property-casualty insurance products related to motor vehicles.

Defensive Investor – must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 3/6

1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion – PASS
2. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
3. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
4. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
5. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
6. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 – PASS

Enterprising Investor – must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3

1. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
2. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend – PASS
3. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago – PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Balance Sheet – December 2014

Earnings Per Share

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham 

Dividend History

Conclusion:

Progressive Corporation is suitable the Enterprising Investor but not the more conservative Defensive Investor, who has concerns regarding the lack of earnings stability or sufficient earnings growth over the last ten years, along with the inconsistent dividend record.  The Enterprising Investor, on the other hand, has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel comfortable proceeding with further research into the company and comparing it to other opportunities.  As for a valuation, the company appears undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.30 in 2010 to $1.85 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth outpaces the market’s implied estimate of 2.95% annual earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, which is based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the market price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Progressive Corporation (PGR) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Progressive Corporation (PGR)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Progressive Corporation (PGR) or in any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from the Wikipedia; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.