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Paccar Inc. Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $PCAR

500px-Paccar_Inc_logo.svgBenjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – March 2015.  By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Paccar Inc. (PCAR) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.

Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): PACCAR Inc is engaged in the design, manufacture and customer support of light, medium- and heavy-duty trucks under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF nameplates. The Company also provides customized financial services, information technology and truck parts related to its principal business. The Company operates in three segments: design, manufacture and distribution of light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks; distribution of parts for the truck aftermarket and related commercial vehicles; and finance and leasing products and services provided to customers and dealers. The Company and its subsidiaries designs and manufactures heavy-duty diesel trucks, which are marketed under the Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF nameplates. The Company’s Financial Services (PFS) operates in 23 countries principally in North America, Europe, Australia and South America through wholly owned finance companies operating under the PACCAR Financial trade name.

Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7

  1. Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 - PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  4. Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
  5. Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
  6. Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
  7. Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - FAIL

Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5

  1. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS
  2. Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 – PASS
  3. Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
  4. Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend - PASS
  5. Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS

Valuation Summary

Key Data:

Recent Price $62.17
MG Value $109.59
MG Opinion Undervalued
Value Based on 3% Growth $47.01
Value Based on 0% Growth $27.56
Market Implied Growth Rate 5.34%
Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) $1.26
PEmg 19.18
Current Ratio 2.52
PB Ratio 3.28

Balance Sheet - December 2014

Current Assets $14,316,000,000
Current Liabilities $5,678,000,000
Total Debt $5,589,000,000
Total Assets $20,619,000,000
Intangible Assets $0
Total Liabilities $13,866,000,000
Outstanding Shares 355,800,000

Earnings Per Share

2014 $3.82
2013 $3.30
2012 $3.12
2011 $2.86
2010 $1.25
2009 $0.31
2008 $2.78
2007 $3.29
2006 $3.97
2005 $2.91
2004 $2.29

Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham

2014 $3.24
2013 $2.69
2012 $2.28
2011 $1.94
2010 $1.76
2009 $2.23

Dividend History


Paccar Inc. is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the insufficient earnings growth over the last ten years and the high PB ratio, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be undervalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $1.76 in 2010 to $3.24 for 2014.  This level of demonstrated growth is greater than the market’s implied estimate of 5.34% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value above the price.

Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Paccar Inc. (PCAR) for greater perspective!

The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Paccar Inc. (PCAR)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.

Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Paccar Inc. (PCAR) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.

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