Tiffany & Company Quarterly Valuation – March 2015 $TIF
Benjamin Graham taught that Intelligent Investors must do a thorough fundamental analysis of investment opportunities to determine their intrinsic value and inherent risk.  This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company or by reviewing the 5 Most Undervalued Companies for the Defensive Investor – March 2015. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company’s historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries.  What follows is a specific look at how Tiffany & Company (TIF) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Company Profile (obtained from Google Finance): Tiffany & Co. (Tiffany) is a holding company that operates through its subsidiary companies the Company is engaged in product design, manufacturing and retailing activities. The Company’s principal subsidiary, Tiffany and Company (Tiffany), is a jeweler and specialty retailer whose principal merchandise offering is jewelry. The Company offers a selection of TIFFANY & CO. brand jewelry which includes timepieces, leather goods, sterling silverware, china, crystal, stationery, fragrances and accessories. The Company operates in five segments: Americas, Asia-Pacific, Japan, Europe and other. The Company’s principal product category is jewelry, which represented 92% of net sales around the world during the fiscal year ended July 31, 2014 (fiscal 2013). The Company operates e-commerce enabled Websites in 13 countries. The Company produces jewelry in New York, Rhode Island and Kentucky, and silver hollowware in Rhode Island.
Defensive Investor – must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 5/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise – market capitalization of at least $2 billion -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition – current ratio greater than 2 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Dividend Record – has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years -Â PASS
- Earnings Growth – earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period -Â PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio – PEmg is less than 20 -Â FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets – PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 -Â FAIL
Enterprising Investor – must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 5/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 – current ratio greater than 1.5 -Â PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 – Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 -Â PASS
- Earnings Stability – positive earnings per share for at least 5 years – PASS
- Dividend Record – currently pays a dividend -Â PASS
- Earnings growth – EPSmg greater than 5 years ago -Â PASS
Valuation Summary
Key Data:
| Recent Price | $86.48 |
| MG Value | $48.01 |
| MG Opinion | Overvalued |
| Value Based on 3% Growth | $42.25 |
| Value Based on 0% Growth | $24.77 |
| Market Implied Growth Rate | 10.59% |
| Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) | $9.73 |
| PEmg | 29.68 |
| Current Ratio | 5.49 |
| PB Ratio | 3.97 |
Balance Sheet -Â January 2015
| Current Assets | $3,611,000,000 |
| Current Liabilities | $658,000,000 |
| Total Debt | $883,000,000 |
| Total Assets | $5,181,000,000 |
| Intangible Assets | $113,000,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $2,346,000,000 |
| Outstanding Shares | 130,000,000 |
Earnings Per Share
| 2015 | $3.73 |
| 2014 | $1.41 |
| 2013 | $3.25 |
| 2012 | $3.40 |
| 2011 | $2.87 |
| 2010 | $2.12 |
| 2009 | $1.74 |
| 2008 | $2.34 |
| 2007 | $1.80 |
| 2006 | $1.75 |
| 2005 | $2.05 |
Earnings Per Share – ModernGraham
| 2015 | $2.91 |
| 2014 | $2.54 |
| 2013 | $2.96 |
| 2012 | $2.71 |
| 2011 | $2.30 |
| 2010 | $2.00 |
Dividend History
Conclusion:
Tiffany & Company (TIF) is suitable for the Enterprising Investor but not for the Defensive Investor.  The Defensive Investor is concerned by the high PEmg and PB ratios, while the Enterprising Investor has no initial concerns.  As a result, Enterprising Investors following the ModernGraham approach based on Benjamin Graham’s methods should feel very comfortable proceeding with further research and comparing the company to other opportunities.  From a valuation side of things, the company appears to be overvalued after growing its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.30 in 2011 to only $2.91 for 2015.  This level of demonstrated growth does not support the market’s implied estimate of 10.59% earnings growth and leads the ModernGraham valuation model, based on Benjamin Graham’s formula, to return an estimate of intrinsic value below the price.
Be sure to check out previous ModernGraham valuations of Tiffany & Company (TIF)Â for greater perspective!
The next part of the analysis is up to individual investors, and requires discussion of the company’s prospects.  What do you think?  What value would you put on Tiffany & Company (TIF)?  Where do you see the company going in the future?  Is there a company you like better?  Leave a comment on our Facebook page or mention @ModernGraham on Twitter to discuss.
Disclaimer:  The author did not hold a position in Tiffany & Company (TIF) or in any other company mentioned in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.  Logo taken from Wikipedia for the sole purpose of identifying the company; this article is not affiliated with the company in any manner.
